Can Najib’s RM60b economic stimulus do the trick?
Finally, they seem to be taking the economic crisis a bit more seriously. Or maybe they just didn’t want to make us panic and to undermine business confidence any further by telling us that dark clouds lay ahead. But the cat is out of the bag now.
Here’s an analysis I did for Asia Times:
Malaysia wakes up to crisis
By Anil Netto
PENANG – A big new economic stimulus package unveiled by Malaysia’s Finance Minister and Deputy Prime Minister Najib Razak is being viewed as belated official recognition that the country is being hard hit by the global economic and financial turbulence, with worse to come.
The Malaysian economy grew by just 0.5% last quarter and many economic analysts have predicted a technical or real recession later this year. The government has revised its own forecast for 2009 down to between negative 1% and positive 1% growth in gross domestic product (GDP).
Perak PR marks 1st birthday under Democracy Tree
Perak PR turns one with a bite of red eggs under the Democracy Tree – Photos by Kinta Kid
Birthday boy Nizar receives a basket of pomelo
Kinta Kid reports from the Democracy Tree in Ipoh:
A year ago today the new government of Perak was sworn in. Coincidentally it was also the birthday of “MB yang sah” Nizar Jamaluddin. Today, I received an sms at around 5.00pm about a birthday party for Nizar and it was to be held under Pokok Demokrasi at 6.00pm. Where else!
The PR team turns one today and the situation today has completely changed compared to the previous 50-odd years. For his birthday, Nizar was presented with a pomelo. (The pomelo is a fruit identified with Ipoh. It is segmented inside but is juicy and refreshing and its outer appearance is packaged well with a smooth and rounded exterior.)
Ali Rustam out; does it really matter?
With Ali Rustam now out of the running, the coast appears to be clear for Muyhiddin to claim the Umno deputy presidency with his only challenger now being Mat Taib.
The thing is, does it make any difference who the No. 2 is?
If anything, this move will only worsen factionalism within the party.
Industrial production limbo: How low can it go?
Industrial Production Index plunges further Source: Statistics Department
The old model is dying. It can never be business as usual again.
Selangor’s public declaration of assets, minus the assets
The Selangor exco have made public their respective disclosure of assets.
At first glance, it looks great.
The only problem is that most of these are ‘declarations of assets’ that do not publicly reveal the assets!
What they do reveal are monthly salaries and other allowances of the individuals concerned and their respective spouses as well as their outstanding loans and monthly loan repayments. A few have indicated that “other income” would be diclosed when their EA forms are released.
But no details of their assets are provided among the few that I checked. (The exco members are only required to declare additions and disposals to their assets since assuming office.)
One chartered accountant, when he first heard that the asset disclosures would only show assets acquired from March 2008, sent me a text message: “Sounds like a watered-down version, ha ha.”
Democracy Tree plaque removed
Smashed, scarred and now uprooted and gone without a trace – Photos by Kinta Kid
Now, who did this?: Bro Vincent Corkery, former director of St Michael’s Institution, inspects the site
… and the rakyat are still coming
On the third day, the Democracy Plaque vanishes… Another metaphor for our lost democracy.
Kinta Kid reports from Ipoh:
The plaque under the now famous Democracy Tree has been removed. According to an eye witness account, it was removed at around 7.00am today, presumably by the Ipoh City Council’s enforcement department. A view of the site indicates that a tractor was used to remove the structure.
Democracy Tree vandalism caught on camera
Friday the 13th, 1.30am: The light at the centre of the image is from the headlights of a car parking before a vandal alights to smash the Democracy Tree plaque – (Click to expand) Image sourced by Kinta Kid
Smashed and scarred: A disappointed little girl looks sadly at what remains of the Democracy Tree plaque – Photos and images by Kinta Kid
The tragicomedy surrounding the Democracy Tree continues as the resourceful Kinta Kid reports from Ipoh:
The plaque was vandalised a second time today. This time the wording was covered with what appears to be road tar. The general consensus amongst all present was that it was once again a sad and cowardly act.
Nip any authoritarian tendencies among PR leaders
Update 2: But a couple of media sources tell me that the NST journalist is probably reluctant to provide specific instances of preferential treatment of businesses and projects as that would amount to revealing his sources, including who the disgruntled business people are. “He can’t expect journalists to dance to his tune,” one of them said. They also felt that it was unfair to single out particular media organisations to be barred as it amounted to “divide and rule” over the media.
Update 1: It has just come to my attention that the main reason Guan Eng is unhappy with the NST is that he felt the journalist had questioned his personal integrity by reporting that certain business people had lamented that he had given preferential treatment for certain projects and personalities. From what I understand, Guan Eng had challenged the journalist to produce a list of such occurrences – and has not yet received such a list, and thus he felt the journalist’s statement was unfair and had cast doubt on his integrity. It was for that reason that he had barred the NST from press conferences.
Despite the obvious political leanings of papers like the NST, Sharanjit Singh has a point in his piece: What’s your beef, Guan Eng?
The Pakatan fellas have to get used to the idea of “unfriendly media” or critical media covering their press conferences and not pick and choose their media.
In Ipoh, at the height of the crisis, I was barred from entering the MB’s residence for 45 minutes while “friendly media” such as Harakah and Suara Keadilan as well as ordinary folks were allowed in by the Pas Unit Amal folks at the gate. I don’t blame them as they were just “ikut arahan” – whose orders, I dont know.
Apparently, the instructions were issued after certain mainstream media had been portraying the Pakatan in a negative light in the preceding days. Also kept out for a while at the front gate were other independent media such as the Chinese-language Merdeka Review and blogger Wong Chin Huat.
Democracy Tree plaque vandalised again
Two nights ago, they smashed the edges of the Democracy Tree plaque. Kinta Kid now informs me that the plaque has been vandalised again.
This time they poured road tar or black paint on the inscription on the plaque, so that it can’t be read.
Friday the 13th vandalism at Democracy Tree site
Shattered plaque, broken democracy – Photos by Kinta Kid
Sanizar with his family: “Tak baik lah macam ini.”
The Pakatan team pledging to uphold democracy
The plaque at the Democracy Tree has been vandalised.
Why are we not surprised? In fact, many of you had predicted that some form of vandalism would occur at this site. And so it came to pass…
In a way, the shattering of the three sides of the plaque is a sad metaphor for the state of our broken democracy.
Thank God that the tree itself is safe – for now.
Kinta Kid reports from Ipoh:
It was bound to happen.
And it had to happen on Friday the 13th… It probably happened around 1.00am as a resident living by the side of the tree heard dogs barking at that time.
Kula mentioned that “we expected this to happen but not this fast”.
Charles Santiago on the Selangor water crisis
Charles Santiago, the MP for Klang, provides a run-down of the water crisis in Selangor and explains how certain water corporations are making quick and easy money.
Presenting the Adil Johan Quartet
An Adil Johan Quartet semi-original, “Listen'” featuring Dasha Logan. Live at No Black Tie, December 2008. Adil is the son of Johan Saravanamuttu (‘the singing professor’) and academic Maznah Mohamad. Darsha, on the other hand, is the daughter of the late Logan Arumugam of Alleycats fame. Looks like a couple of stars in the making…
This is a song about re-arranging your life. Talks of shady deals and contracts (“It’s not the way we want it to be, but those in power don’t want to see”), the struggle for change and the quest for justice and transparency. Quite appropriate for a guy named Adil Johan (“Champion of Justice”). Steve Naris Nanda: Drums; Hiro Maekawa: Bass; Terrence Liew: Keys; Adil Johan: Sax + Vocals.
US economic crisis could last 36 months
“We could end up … with a 36-month recession, that could be “L-shaped stagnation, or near depression,” said Prof Nouriel Roubini.
Can the BN save itself?
The majestic Democracy Tree: Visitors from all ethnic groups gathered here yesterday morning – (Click to expand) Photos by Kinta Kid
More visitors turned up in the evening; notice the bouquet beneath the tree
The BN knows what it needs to do to survive: it has to push through major reforms to wipe our corruption and abuse of power to win back lost support. But is it really capable of such reforms? This was the cover story I wrote for a recent issue of Aliran Monthly:
As the Umno election and general assembly in March approaches, the party faces a huge dilemma.
It is phasing out a leader (Abdullah Badawi) it feels is not suitable to lead the party following a general election setback last year which saw it lose its coveted two thirds parliamentary majority, while five out of 13 states fell to opposition hands.
Umno is now about to endorse a new leader, Najib Razak, whose own leadership credentials are in tatters following crushing by-election defeats in Permatang Pauh last August and Kuala Terengganu in January.
MACC contacts Perak assembly member for Canning
Looks as if the MACC is having a busy time in Perak.
It’s now the turn of the Perak state assembly member for Canning, Wong Kah Woh of the DAP. The MACC phoned him yesterday afternoon to say it wants to record a statement from him. Kah Woh writes in his blog:
I just wonder if there is a need to do so, after having recorded statement with Speaker and the counsel (yes, the lawyer) Mr Augustine Anthony.
RM60b package: “The boys” will be licking their lips…
An enormous package that exceeds the expectations of most people – two weeks before the Umno general assembly.
RM60 billion of our money! And guess what? RM29 billion of this is slated for “assisting the private sector”. The “boys” will be licking their lips and rubbing their hands in anticipation. (I can just picture it – stimulated by the stimulus package!)
First off, the obvious question: where is this money coming from? “Domestic sources,” says Najib, cryptically. Apparently, there’s “ample liquidity” in the system.
And secondly, what mysteries lie hidden behind the RM60 billion? Let’s keep it simple. The RM60 billion package comprises:
- RM15 billion in fiscal injection (RM10 billion in 2009 and RM5 billion in 2010). Fiscal deficit expected to rise to 7.6 per cent in 2009;
- RM25 billion in guarantee funds (RM5 billion for SME Working Capital Fund, another RM5 billion for Industry Restructuring Fund and the rest?)
- RM10 billion in equity investment (For Khazanah?)
- RM7 billion for private finance initiative and off-budget projects (Where is this “private finance” coming from? Not out of the EPF, I hope.)
- RM3 billion in tax initiatives
US financial system “effectively insolvent”
Despite all the stimulus packages and bailouts, the US financial system is broke.
That’s the view of Nouriel Roubini, the economics professor who predicted the global economic collapse, long before most people.
He adds there is a “rising risk of a global L-shaped depression that would be even worse than the current, painful U-shaped global recession”.
That’s in sharp contrast to the view of other economists, the IMF, and the local business press, who are hoping for a small recovery in 2010. Some even are hoping for a rally in the second half of this year.
But Nouriel says any rally or recovery from China’s and the US’ stimulus packages this year is likely to be illusory, a sucker’s rally.
Today, Najib is going to announce a multi-billion mammoth second “stimulus package”. But will it be more money down the drain – apart from the usual jobs for the boys with public money?
Pokok Demokrasi draws more visitors
The Perak State Assembly member for Canning, Wong Kah Woh, reports here that more visitors are checking out the Democracy Tree and its five “offshoots” in Ipoh.
He also points out here that according to the Perak Legislative Assembly (Privileges) Enactment 1959, para 3 of the Schedule clearly states that assembly members are immune from any civil or criminal proceedings “for anything done or said before the Assembly”.