Malaysian elections

2011:  Unofficial result – BN 22679 votes, Pas 14445 votes (Majority: 8234).

Pas votes have held steady despite the reduced turnout. But perhaps it could have won more if Pakatan solidarity had been stronger.

This means in all likelihood, the GST and higher cost of living has hurt the BN; its share of the popular vote has slumped from 67 per cent to 61 per cent while Pas’ share has risen from 33 per cent to 39 per cent.

The BN’s majority has dropped from 15114 at GE13 to 8000-plus this time, largely due to the 6700 voters who stayed away.

1950: BN 15144 votes Pas 9313 votes (Majority: 5831)

1931: BN 10610 votes Pas 6621 votes (Majority: 3989)

1917: BN 7034 votes Pas 4027 votes (Majority: 3007)

1856: BN 2489 votes, Pas 1373 votes (Majority: 1116)

The big question is … to what extent will GST hurt the BN’s performance and how will the hudud factor (and its impact on Pakatan solidarity) affect Pas’ performance? Mind you, this area is about 90 per cent Muslim.

Probably because of GST and hudud, turnout has dropped from 85.5 per cent (in GE13) to 73 per cent this time.

This means some 6700 people of the 45849 voters who cast their ballots in GE13 have stayed away this time.

In the 2013 general election, the BN won the Rompin seat with 65.5 per cent of the total votes cast. Pas polled 32.6 per cent of the votes.

In 2008, it was BN 66.7 per cent vs Pas 33.3 per cent of valid votes cast.

In 2004, BN 65.9 per cent vs Pas 34.1 per cent of valid votes cast.

So we can see, in the last few elections, the BN has polled two thirds of the votes and Pas a third.

My prediction is that Pas will lose votes, which means there is no great support for its hudud push, is there? But the BN too will lose votes as disenchanted voters might not be able to bring themselves to vote for the ruling coalition either, because of the GST and repressive laws.

Rompin-election-results

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