State polls: Crucial figures to watch out for

27
328
ANIL NETTO

Check out the BFM live coverage of results here

LIVE – Results for DAP candidates

LIVE – Malaysiakini score board

LIVE – Astro Awani results

Turnout

  • Penang – 80.2% (2018); 72.7%
  • Selangor – 85.2% (2018); 72.0%
  • Negeri Sembilan – 81.7% (2018); 67.4% “
  • Kedah – 82.0% (2018); 73.4% “
  • Terengganu – 84.2% (2018); 74.8% “
  • Kelantan – 78.2% (2018); 60.1% “
  • General election – 74.0% (2022 nationwide, with automatic voter registration)

Bear in mind that the 2018 figures were before Undi18 and automatic voter registration in 2022. Many older voters who had not bothered to register as voters earlier were included in the 2022 rolls: many of them were unlikely to vote and this drove down the turnout figures for the 2022 general election. I expect the turnout this time to fall just short or close to the 2022 general election figure of 74%

Predictions

Penang (40 seats)

  • Anil: PH+BN WIN 28 seats
  • Emen Jamal (PKR): PH+BN WIN 39
  • Abdul Rahman Kasim (Pas): PH+BN WIN 26

Selangor (56 seats)

  • Anil: PH+BN WIN
  • Emen: PH+BN WIN 53
  • Rahman: PH+BN 20; PN WIN 36

Negeri (36 seats)

  • Anil: PH+BN WIN
  • Emen: PH+BN WIN 33
  • Rahman: PH+BN 16; PN WIN 20

Kedah (36 seats)

  • Anil: PN WIN
  • Emen: PH+BN WIN 26
  • Rahman: PH+BN 6; PN WIN 30

Terengganu (32 seats)

  • Anil: PN WIN
  • Emen: PH+BN WIN 26
  • Rahman: PH+BN 2; PN WIN 30

Kelantan (45 seats)

  • Anil: PN WIN
  • Rahman: PH+BN 2; PN WIN 43

Popular vote:

Penang

2018 – PH 67.2%

2022 – PH 60.0%

2023 –

Selangor

2018 – PH 63.4%

2022 – PH 52.8%

2023 –

Negeri Sembilan

2018 – PH 53.9%

2022 – PH 44.8%

2023 –

Kedah

2018 – PH 36.5%

2022 – PH 23.3%

2023 –

Terengganu

2018 – PH 7.3%

2022 – PH 5.5%

2023 –

Kelantan

2018 – PH 10.0%

2022 – PH 8.8%

2023 –

Seats won

Penang (40 seats)

2018 – PH 37; PH+BN 39

Selangor (56 seats)

2018 – PH 51; PH+BN 55

Kedah (36 seats)

2018 – PH 9; PH+BN 29

Negeri (36 seats)

2018 – PH 20; PH+BN 36

2023 –

Terengganu (32 seats)

2018 – PH 0; PH+BN 10

2023 –

Kelantan (45 seats)

2018 – PH 0; PH+BN 10

Please help to support this blog if you can.

Read the commenting guidlelines for this blog.
Subscribe
Notify of
guest

27 Comments
Most Voted
Newest Oldest
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments
Harban

Now is 5.05pm very low voter turnout will likely hand the state governments to PN. Anil can give analysis why voters are not turning up to vote.

Brocky

How would you explain the speed with which Chow was sworn in for another term as chief minister, barely hours after winning? And why was party stalwart Lim Guan Eng noticeably absent from the gathering on Saturday night, where Chow announced PH’s victory in the state?

https://www.freemalaysiatoday.com/category/opinion/2023/08/13/chin-tong-has-it-all-wrong-about-pns-limitations/

Shriek

You miss his comment nons will be getting less and less too.

NoNo

Don’t worry. More Chinese from Kedah will migrate to Penang island in the next 4 years.

Opposition

https://www.thevibes.com/articles/news/97682/sheer-bombast-kit-siang-mocks-perikatans-failure-to-sweep-state-polls

========

SHEER BOMBAST, really? Most politicians do this most of the time. Ruling, Opposition or others. A common thing in our political arena.

How is your Unity government performance so far? The economy, our currency, cost of living, price increase, etc etc etc.

What about floods, drought, landslides, sink holes, pot holes, housing/prices, highway tolls and more etc.

Recent state election mostly showed personal attacks at each other only. Nothing much about the advancement of the states or its Rakyat.

Shriek

You vote one who tells you to prepare to drink well water? You are so well to drink well water and hope to become ironman?

Opposition

We use to live by well water right up till the seventies. Well water was used for bathing as well as for drinking and cooking. We had a bucket pondok for the other purpose. A man smoking cerut use to come by and do the collecting.

Brocky

Muda and PSM performed poorly in the state election with all their candidates losing their deposits.

Brocky

The act of splitting votes by Muda have cost the unity government to lose a Selangor state seat to the PN.

At Sungai Kandis, a close battle between Wan Dzahanurin Ahmad from PN who won with 28,926 votes and Zawawi Mughni from Pakatan Harapan with 28,759, followed by Afriena Shaqira from Muda with 1,341 votes.

https://www.nst.com.my/news/politics/2023/08/942205/fahmi-mudas-vote-splitting-may-have-cost-unity-govt-state-seat-nsttv

Esme

PN has ebbed away at the government’s sway in powerbases Selangor and Penang even as it retains control of its own home turfs with a tighter stranglehold. PN has improved markedly on its margin in Penang with at least 11 seats, up from 1 previously, while more than doubling from 5 to 16 in Selangor.

Maharashtra

Most people choose not to vote. Fatigue?

Even Anil stopped updating turnup percentage after a while.

It is a pleasure to be in this blog.
Adios!

Semangat 57

We must change the delineation of voting. Put more in urban areas as the urbanization rate of Malaysia is reaching 75%. More and more people are living in the cities and hence, more seats should be given to urban areas.

This way, the people who make decision for the Gov of the day will be reflected fairly.

Shriek

Waiting the reformasi party as they are supposed to carry reformasi. Their MPs are less but ministries are more and include those in GLC. Rocket looks more like return of MCA .

Shrunk

“PH-BN retains Penang, but supermajority shrinks” dd 13 Aug 2023 12:20AM
by Ian McIntyre

https://www.thevibes.com/articles/news/97664/ph-bn-retains-penang-but-supermajority-shrinks

========

But, But, retired DAP party supremo says it is all just ‘Sheer Bombast’.
1995 old story Robocop for chief minister, on the prowl.

Opposition

“Sheer bombast: Kit Siang mocks Perikatan’s failure to sweep state polls” dd 13 Aug 2023 11:13AM https://www.thevibes.com/articles/news/97682/sheer-bombast-kit-siang-mocks-perikatans-failure-to-sweep-state-polls ======== Please don’t be such a sour puss, TSLKS. PH/Unity govt’s only narrative was that the Opposition coalition consisted of bad religious people who will take away the rights and Rakyat’s way of living in our country. The Opposition for reasons only known to them, didn’t bother to counter these narratives.  But despite all this bogeyman stories, the Opposition was able to win 11 seats close to their prediction in Penang, a big win of 22 seats in Selangor and a small 5… Read more »

Shriek

2Rs is no play play. You can’t even tell us know to counteract. They say others are taking over even numbers are exceed and extend beyond the time limit.

Opposition

Let take a look in the Opposition’s backyard. Looks like PH/Unity govt. was completely wiped out in Terengganu and only made an insignificant win both in Kedah and Kelantan with a mere 3 seats and 2 seats respectively.  Quote, “Is this the electoral result awaiting PN, especially PAS, in the 16th general election in 2027?” he wondered. Unquote. Compared to what you have said using old results, we too wonder, a possible significant increase in the current voting population by 2027. Now that the state election is over, its also time for we Rakyat to monitor and scrutinize PH/Unity govt.… Read more »

Shriek

Same, we look closely at Kelantan, trengganu and kedah gomen. Want some more $$$.? Not enough or go and drink well water…

Esme

9.36pm: Teo Nie Ching says PH-BN to form government in Penang.

9.35pm: Teo Nie Ching says DAP has retained all seats in Selangor, Negri Sembilan and Penang.

Brocky

Sanusi ‘tayang’ kertas undi.
Langgar akta?
Apa cakap EC?

Screenshot_2023-08-12-17-49-16-111_com.android.chrome.jpg
McFarid

Low voters turnout will swing the favour to PH at the end of the day. Penang will have more PAS YBs for the next 5 years to press for more religious demand. Good luck and you deserve the taste of green movement.

Sonic 111

Green waves to recruit more academic professionals to penetrate the NGOs to exert more influences to win GE16.

Aliran, Penang Forum could be the targets.

Opposition

That may not happen but the possibility of Opposition setting up their own? Can or not? They should.

shriek

so far, what green wave ngos have done? Support rakyat to drink well water from ground water will have heavy metal and then enjoy heavy metal music or follow yankee ironman?

PCH

3-3
4-2
5-1
6-0?

Nothing is impossible.

Turnouts depend on which camps gather the most regardless of figures

Upin Ipin

Harapan saya lebih banyak DUN di Penang jatuh ke tangan PAS.

Hidup PN!