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What happens if Anwar is arrested before by-election?

Anil Netto
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From the poll on this blog, about 85 per cent of you believe Anwar will win in Permatang Pauh by a much bigger majority compared with Wan Azizah’s winning margin of 13,388 in the March general election.

The PKR, for its part, has set a target of 20,000, which is certainly possible, barring any dirty tactics. After all, Anwar won here with a 23,000-plus majority in 1995, when he was standing under a BN ticket, over opponets from Pas and DAP.

But this time, he will face the entire weight of the BN election machinery – the 3 Ms plus perhaps more potshots from the double M (Mahathir Mohamad).

What happens if Anwar is arrested before the by-election? Will his majority be even larger?

The even bigger questions lie beyond that. Will a PKR win be enough to lure defections ahead of 16 Sept? And at what price to principles and ideals? Perhaps the hope for a new Malaysia founded on justice and freedom would make it all worth while. What do you think?

Here’s something I wrote yesterday for Asia Times.

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Pakatan agrees on unprecedented joint campaign

Anil Netto
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On Sunday night, during Anwar’s ceramah in Seberang Jaya, I ran into Abdul Malik Abul Kassim, the PKR assembly member for Batu Maung, Abdul Malik Abul Kassim. He told me that Pakatan Rakyat had made an unprecedented decision earlier that day.

“We (the Pakatan) are going into this campaign with one machinery, one director of operations and one operations room,” he said, adding that this would be “the first time the three parties in the coalition are doing this”.

This report from the Malay Mail:

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Sarawak: So the dam-building frenzy begins…

Anil Netto
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Uncertainty continues to hang over what to do with all the electricity from the 2,400MW Bakun Dam. Few know for sure if the undersea cables will be actually laid, given the enormous risks involved. Anyway, the electricity for that dam was supposed to go to the peninsula.

So now they have this new plan to build the RM3 billion 940MW Murum Dam as part of the 12-dams-for-Sarawak project. And the award goes to… a Chinese firm. Who is going to use all this electricity? Would that be the aluminium smelter Salco? That’s a joint venture between Rio Tinto and CMS (ring a bell?) And which company is likely to benefit most from the supply of materials for the construction of all these dams?

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15,000-crowd roars Anwar’s campaign off to flying start

Anil Netto
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Show of strength in Seberang Jaya

This is a section of the 15,000-crowd that packed the Seberang Jaya Expo site last night to listen to a stellar cast of speakers: Anwar, Guan Eng, Wan Azizah and Husam Musa. The crowd chanted the old battle-cry “Reformasi!” and when Anwar declared, “Lawan tetap…“, they roared back, “Lawan!” with much steely determination.

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Can Anwar improve on Wan Azizah’s majority?

Anil Netto
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12

This is some background info of the semi-urban to rural constituency of Permatang Pauh, which lies between Butterworth and Bukit Mertajam, courtesy of undi.info.

PENANG: P44 – Permatang Pauh 2008Voters: 58,449
PartyCandidateVotesMajority
UMNODatuk Pirdaus Ismail16,950
PKRWan Azizah Wan Ismail30,34813,388
Racial Breakdown
Malay: 69.40%, Chinese: 24.50%, Indian: 5.70%, Others: 0.10%
PENANG: P44 – Permatang Pauh 2004Voters: 54,041
PartyCandidateVotesMajority
UMNODatuk Pirdaus Ismail21,147
PKRDatin Seri Dr Wan Azizah Wan Ismail21,737590
Racial Breakdown
Malay: 67.60%, Chinese: 26.30%, Indian: 5.70%, Others: 0.30%
State Seats / Polling Districts
N10 – Seberang Jaya

Jalan Sembilang, Seberang Jaya Ii, Kampong Pertama, Kampong Belah Dua, Seberang Jaya I, Jalan Bahru, Simpang Ampat,

N11 – Permatang Pasir

Sama Gagah, Permatang Ara, Permatang Pauh, Bukit Indra Muda, Kampong Pelet, Kubang Semang, Tanah Liat Mukim 8, Kampong Cross Street 2,

N12 – Penanti

Guar Perahu, Kuala Mengkuang, Telok Wang, Mengkuang, Sungai Lembu, Penanti, Kubang Ulu, Sungai Semambu, Tanah Liat Mukim 9, Berapit Road,
Analysis

Permalink: http://undi.info/ax/state/pn/2008/parliament/P44.html

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Tan Yee Kew and 1,700 others join PKR

Anil Netto
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Tan Yee Kew (Photo credit: Mysinchew)

Just heard from a KL journalist:

At a ceremony from 10.30am to noon today, Anwar Ibrahim accepted a stack of PKR membership forms from former MCA senior central committee member Tan Yee Kew and 1,700 others described as former BN supporters.

Some 1,500 people packed a convention hall at the Klang Executive Club to witness the handover.

PKR had received over 2,000 application forms from the constituencies of Kapar, Shah Alam and Klang but was able to process only 1,700.

Tan, who was also International Trade and Industry Ministry parliamentary secretary, quit the MCA on 17 July. She said she shared the people’s disenchantment over the widening gap between the rich and the poor, racial discrimination, rampant corruption and abuse of power.

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Anwar: Safe seat? I’m willing to contest in Kepala Batas

Anil Netto
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Anwar speaking in Bagan Datoh, Perak last night

Anwar Ibrahim has rejected criticism by BN politicians that he opted for a by-election in Permatang Pauh because it was a safe seat for him. He said he was willing to contest in any Umno stronghold including Kepala Batas, Abdullah Badawi’s parliamentary seat, which is just 15 minutes’ drive from Permatang Pauh.

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Permatang Pauh gears up for pivotal by-election

Anil Netto
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The lull before the frenzy: This was the scene when I dropped by at Permatang Pauh the day after Wan Azizah stepped down as MP to make way for Anwar

The semi-urban town of Permatang Pauh is gearing up for a what could be a pivotal by-election that could influence the direction of events in coming months.

The political situation is in a state of flux as the Barisan Nasional and Pakatan Rakyat enter a crucial phase that could determine the direction of the country.

In the foreground are the high-stakes allegations – the sodomy complaint and the Altantuya murder. In the backdrop, the equally high-stakes political battle between the leaders of the rival coalitions.

The road blocks in KL and the bizarre way Anwar Ibrahim was arrested recently – and then released – did not help soothe frayed nerves. The big question now is will he be arrested again and charged before the by-election?

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“Streamlining” oil prices for by-election?

Anil Netto
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Key: July prices in red; June prices in violet (Graph courtesy of oilnergy.com)

It looks like the price of oil in Malaysia could be dependent on other factors apart from economic considerations.

Now the PM talks of “streamlining” the oil price from 1 Sept. By also capping the petrol price at the present RM2.70/litre for the rest of the year, the government is now opening up the possibility of a possible reduction in fuel prices this year in the event of a further drop in global prices.

What exactly has changed since 5 June, when the petrol price was raised by 41 per cent?

As you can see from the graph above, the price of Nymex Light Sweet Crude on 4-5 June was around US$125 per barrel. And that was when they raised the petrol price in Malaysia by 41 per cent.

At the end of July, the price was also around US$125. But this time, they are talking of “streamlining” the oil price.

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Loong Thye explains why he wanted to stop book launch

Anil Netto
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Chia Loong Thye has responded to the launch of the book on Gerakan, explaining why he wanted to stop the event. He says he is all for non-sectarian politics “but why is it not possible to discuss this issue without the need to slander another person? My complaint against the authors is just that.”

Here is his statement in full:

My action to sue the authors of the book, Non-Sectarian Politics in Malaysia: The Case of Parti Gerakan Rakyat Malaysia, (“the Book”) for defamation may have caused some uneasiness amongst friends and those who are actively contributing to the political writings in this country.

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