Why Pakatan lost in Bagan Pinang

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The Pakatan needs to carry out a serious postmortem to find out why and how it was thrashed in Bagan Pinang.

bgpinangbualpala
Posters of the Kg Buah Pala demolition were found around Ladang Siliau in Bagan Pinang on nomination day – Photo by Tiger

In some ways, the BN victory was not unexpected. Perhaps the scale of the defeat surprised many. But a few keen political analysts noticed something amiss ahead of polling day and predicted that Isa would win comfortably as noted in my post here.

So far, many have pointed to some obvious reasons for the BN’s landslide win:

Pull factors:

  • Isa was a popular, well-known – albeit tainted – local candidate.
  • Bagan Pinang is an Umno stronghold.
  • All kinds of promises and enticements were made, especially to army personnel about improved facilities.
  • Questions about the postal balloting system persisted.
  • And of course, the mainstream media were used in the campaigning (but then the last three points were no different from previous by-elections – except there were more postal ballots here).

Push factors:

The problems caused by certain Pas politicians in Selangor, and the bad press the party received over attempts to ban concerts and the like could have contributed to the defeat. In many ways, these Pas politicians have not learnt from GE1999, when they mistook increased support for their party (then under the Barisan Alternatif) as a vote for more conservative religious laws and an Islamic state.  But then, the party was mauled in GE2004.

These Pas politicians are now making the same mistake by assuming that the support for Pas in GE2008 was because voters want more conservative religious regulations even at the local level in places like Selangor. But then, look what happened in Bagan Pinang…

“(The loss is the) result of Pas screwing everything, I think,” wrote a political scientist, who happens to be a Muslim, in a text message to me. He added that the result was expected and about time too, and lamented the PKR’s inability to stand up to Pas. He pointed out that “Anwar’s gutless stand” in this respect suggests that “they (PKR) are prepared to cut cards with the devil to get Anwar to power at all costs”.

In a way, the Pakatan defeat could have a silver lining: it could strengthen the hand of the moderates within Pas such as Mat Sabu, Khalid Samad, Husam Musa and of course, Nizar.

PKR’s own inability to rein in certain elected reps from upsetting Pakatan supporters might have also cost the alliance some votes. DAP-PKR bickering, intra-party infighting and the perception that some Pakatan elected reps are more interested in securing positions of power instead of being focused on serving the rakyat surely did not help the campaign either.

As for the DAP, one observer emailed me, “If you get the chance to speak to LGE, tell him to get his Pakatan act together. Take this ‘probation’ period of five years to do house cleaning and remove all the baggage in the party. Or else it will just be a one-time surprise.” The same would apply to other Pakatan leaders and their parties.

The demolition of Kg Buah Pala – and the loss of the Makkal Sakthi factor – also would have eroded support for the Pakatan especially in estate areas.

Tiger, a Chinese Malaysian campaigning for Pas in Bagan Pinang who had visited Kg Buah Pala, sent me the photo of the posters above along with the following remarks:

This was one of BN’s tactics to win the Indian vote, and they did win the three Indian-Malaysian majority voting districts of Siliau, Ladang Atherton and Sua Betong – which in GE2008 were all won by Pas.

The issue of KBP will not be forgotten for a long time to come, as an example of social injustice perpetrated by a supposedly pro-people new state government.

If Pakatan Rakyat cannot understand this, they do not deserve to rule.

Harsh words, no doubt, especially when the Kg Buah Pala deal was approved by the BN. But perception in politics is also important. Did the Pakatan administration in Penang convey the impression that it was trying its level best to live up to its election promises and save the village by delaying the land transfer while it carried out an in-depth probe?

Among some segments of the middle-class, political betrayal may be par for the course. But when politicians make promises to the working class who are living on the margins of society, they’d better live up to them.

I was at the Freedom Film Festival in Penang on Saturday and one of the documentaries screened was about the demolition of Kg Berembang, a Malay settlement (and its surau) in Selangor, in 2007. One of the facilitators pointed out that the demolition swung popular support away from the BN in surrounding area during GE2008.

Just as Kg Berembang was one of the many factors contributing to the “perfect storm” that unleashed the political tsunami of 8 March 2008, the effect of the Kg Buah Pala demolition on the psyche of villagers and settlers elsewhere cannot be easily dismissed (even though Guan Eng is confident that the people of Penang are behind him).

The legal issues aside, it’s not going to be easy for either the BN or Pakatan to allow the wholesale demolition of villages in future without broad-ranging consultation with settlers especially in cases where they have lived on the land for generations. The gut-wrenching spectre of grandparents, parents and children wailing and sobbing as their homes are wrecked will extract in its wake a heavy political price.

Which brings me to the final point, brought to my attention by a political economist: the issues raised by the Pakatan tend to come from a middle-class perspective (issues such as corruption, civil and political rights – important as they are). But there is a class divide here: people living on the threshold of poverty are struggling to make ends meet, to put food on the dinner-table and to provide for their families. This is not to say that democracy, accountability and human rights are not important. Of course they are.

But economic issues do play a part. Has Pakatan clearly articulated its socio-economic agenda (apart from welfarism) when it is so obviously business-oriented? Does it even have a common position on a minimum wage and workers’ rights, for instance? What about insisting that all plantation firms provide their workers with adequate housing?

How does the Pakatan propose to deal with rising food prices? Many are constantly complaining about ever-increasing food prices in the market. How can the Pakatan talk about lowering or stabilising food prices when all its attention is on business and industry such that it barely talks about sustainable agriculture and farming?

And yet, higher food prices will hurt the poor the most. From what we have seen, the Pakatan seems unable to connect with the issues that matter most among many segments of rural voters – farmers, estate workers, fisherfolk – who remain cut off from the mainstream of development and the media.

So many lessons to be learned from Bagan Pinang – especially the fact that voters cannot be taken for granted anymore by either the BN or Pakatan.

This was a defeat waiting to happen and it should serve as a reality check and wake-up call for the Pakatan.

If the lessons are heeded, then this by-election defeat could be a blessing in disguise for the Pakatan in its long-term struggle.  If not…

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Jay
Jay
28 Sep 2010 2.51pm

wow … PR are so arrogant now , i still remember those days when this idiots trying hard to beg for a vote , well done guys ! u all will bring back soon what has the BN done for the past 50yrs . divide and rule , u will feel the pain later or sooner for being too stupid. Good luck for those who still think that pakatan will save the Malaysia.

anna brella
anna brella
30 Oct 2009 10.53pm

Political stupidity?

Arrogant complacency?

Impending political rigor mortis?

“Imagine Power To The People” John Lennon.

me 1 malaysia
me 1 malaysia
20 Oct 2009 9.12am

hei everybody who does not support 1 malaysia…use your stupid brain to see justice and dont just accuse the past government. how good you people in ruling now…..there’s lot of problems like corruption, cruel leader like nizar jamaludin of perak, mahfuz, mat sabu and of course the living satan of modern era and you people know who he is…mu support for pr has gone to zero and the whole region of my area has pledge support back to bn …….hidup 1 malaysia…..hidup melayu, cina dan india serta lain2 etnik.

Gerakan K
Gerakan K
20 Oct 2009 4.55pm
Reply to  me 1 malaysia

Agree! Hidup 1Malaysia! Vote Gerakan in next GE!

Justice Maysin
Justice Maysin
19 Oct 2009 11.39pm

Yang: “Going to the Buah Pala case there are only 9 families that have not sign up and it will soon be too late if they continue to listen to the lies of MIC, UMNO & Gerakan” Most of the Kg Buah Pala residents had to accept the offer from LGE – what else can they do? A very important fact that has certainly irked many is that the actual transfer was approved/done during the tenure of the present state govt. No one is disputing that the BN/Gerakan govt screwed up this matter. Precisely that is one of the reasons… Read more »

Surendran a/l VKR Nair
Surendran a/l VKR Nair
19 Oct 2009 4.16pm

So, they won in Bagan Pinang.When you have a carrot for Deepavali given to them and renovotaions done after so long, surely people will vote for you!!!The recent UMNO assembly was a classic example of how the media is doing work for their masters..Now we see and hear the trouble Zahid is supposed to be having…You guys want to change and re-invent yourself.If you say so much about 1 Malaysia concept,why so scared to go back to the people in Perak .This does show that you are only talking about change but you are the REAL POWER CRAZY…

charleskiwi
charleskiwi
19 Oct 2009 12.04pm

It is very simple ! As I predicted before the election, so long as … Mahathir is not involved in the by election, Isa will without a doubt win just like AAB in his first GE as P.M. will a record. The people thought M was really retired and came out to celebrate, big time, and voted AAB without any regard for the corrupted BN candidates. But as soon as M came out and opened his … mouth AAB lost it big time. Not because AAB did anything wrong but it was simply because of M’s involvement. Subsequent by elections… Read more »

DG
DG
18 Oct 2009 12.09am

Whether you are pro PR or pro BN, semua rakyat benefits from having 2 parties to choose from.
The fact that BN-UMNO-GERAKAN-MIC-MCA wants to reform is because Malaysians have been given alternatives.
So please don’t think for one minute there would be any reform whatsoever if PR did not exist.
Malaysians Boleh.

Gerakan K
Gerakan K
17 Oct 2009 11.01pm

PAS defeated in Bagan Pinang because:

1) LGE arrogant behavior in running its duty and the way he handle Kg Buah Pala
2) PAS attempts to ban beer in Selangor
3) PAS attempts to ban concerts
4) Jeff Ooi labels JIM as islamic extremist organization
5) People believing our PM Najib sincere effor in 1Malaysia initiative
6) People really have spoken their fear of PAS islamic state agenda

Yang
Yang
18 Oct 2009 5.09pm
Reply to  Gerakan K

Gerakan K – You can be naive and stupid to believe in this 1Malaysia but don`t label the people as believing in it This is the 1 Malaysia advocated by Najib 1 Malaysia – categorise as non bumiputra and bumiputra 1 Malaysia – non bumi no discount / bumi 5% discount for buying house. 1 Malaysia – non bumi less points while bumi more point for entry into universities, colleges and other public institution. 1 Malaysia – NEP that help bumi with crutches and ignore non bumi with crutches. 1 Malaysia – Innocent & INCLUSIVE of corruptible and cheaters like… Read more »

Gerakan K
Gerakan K
19 Oct 2009 6.26pm
Reply to  Yang

You do not understand the people fear of PAS islamic agenda. 1Malaysia = no islamic state. Next GE PAS candidate in non-malay areas will be totally defeated. Remember my words. Myself as a politically active person on the ground, fully understand people feeling. This Bagan Pinang by-election is the perfect example to prove my point.

Yang
Yang
19 Oct 2009 9.40pm
Reply to  Gerakan K

Gerakan K, Mahathir said Malaysia is an Islamic state, Badawi said Malaysia is an Islamic state Najib 1Malaysia is a bluff and he did said Malaysia is an Islamic state. And did MIC, MCA, PPP & Gerakan retort to that. They just keep quiet afraid to annoy their master UMNO. Oop sorry, they did not keep quiet just like you. Gerakan Lim Keng Yaik … said, Malaysia is an Islamic state but a different one. Did I say wrong ???? It was reported in the mass media. Isn`t this the words of a moron or a lap….. PAS wanted an… Read more »

Gerakan K
Gerakan K
20 Oct 2009 5.03pm
Reply to  Yang

What PAS want is full islamic law including hudud which has punishment like cutting of hands, beheading, stoning to death,…

BN leaders may feel free to say Malaysia is an islamic state but we don’t have above punishment. This is fact that you, PAS, DAP, PKR can’t argue with me.

KKLim
KKLim
17 Oct 2009 10.15pm

What political motive ? Only u would/should know.

BTW, why haven’t u publish all the nasty abuses, and name calling that the MIC/fraud Hindraf people heaped upon Dr P Ramasamy and LGE so that people here can have a clearer and balanced picture of the real situation ib KBP ?

Tanjong
Tanjong
17 Oct 2009 4.07pm

Those who think Kg Buah Pala issue is a deterrent factor for Indian to vote for UMNO, pls stop your fantasy here. If cow head and protest on Hindu Temple at Selangor which touched on religious matter of most Indian here consider almost irrelevant here, do u think Indian in Bagan Pinang care about KBP issue which happened further away up north?

Think again.

We voted for UMNO just becos of Isa.

I.Hanafi
I.Hanafi
17 Oct 2009 1.41pm

I’m begining to wonder if Anil own one of the houses in KBP. There are a lot of happy people who are well compansated, only Sugu and gang who probably want a house next to Khir Toyo. What do you all want, they are on peoples property.

groundpilot
17 Oct 2009 1.01pm

saya ada menulis 2 artikel in my blog, berkenaan kekalahan pakatan di bagan pinang.
http://apaajanews.blogspot.com/

happy deepavali to all indians in malaysia, chao

noorisa27
noorisa27
16 Oct 2009 10.30pm

Hello sukakaya. I like your comments. Not only Hassan Ali. If you combine Anwar and Kit Siang also as an alternative leaders to lead Malaysia, believe you me, our country, our nation will be in a great mess.

I know that you suka kaya. How ever there are many out there who don’t like kaya. They prefered plain toast.

noorisa27
noorisa27
16 Oct 2009 10.24pm

Buah pala asam jeruk
Bagan Pinang tepi laut
Memang dah rasa nak kalah teruk
Parti hangpa semua dah melalut

Sang Kancil
Sang Kancil
16 Oct 2009 12.05pm

So many commenters here are UMNO buffoons. Why are their comments published here, and not mine, anil? Being pro-UMNO eh?

sukakaya
sukakaya
15 Oct 2009 10.59pm

Sir, The Malays who supported PR have grown wary of hidden chauvinistic agenda as can be referred to by the comments on PR-supported websites like Raja Petra’s one. The language of some commentators, non-Malays presemably, really turned people like me off. I believe that once in power, these jokers will be worse thab Umno. Hassan Ali is one, but they are more hiding in the closet just aiting for the right time to come out. I can safely predict that PR will be hit by a pendulum swing in GE13.

karma
karma
15 Oct 2009 9.57pm

Pakatan will strike back. It’s like a football match. When you are down you will go all out to strike. The score now is still in PR’s faivour. See what comes next. It’s becoming very interesting. The fervour of a two-party system is already there. The Bagan Pinang victory could only be a flash in the pan. Looks like the moderates in PAS will win the hearts of all people.

KKLim
KKLim
15 Oct 2009 9.37pm

Sorry Anil, u r wrong. I am not implyng racial motive on yr part but political motive, yes. BTW, KG Pandan eviction involved mainly Indian families and MIri, local natives. If u want to champion their cause, it is not difficult in this cyber world. U don’t need to be there. There r more than sufficient info both in the print and electronic media on these issues. U have done it many times elsewhere. BTW, for those who like to freely label Dr P Ramasamy as a ‘mandore’ please name me a state where a Malaysian Indian has ever been… Read more »

K
K
19 Oct 2009 10.01pm
Reply to  KKLim

KK Lim This unwarranted and unrelenting attack on Anil and other principled but politically nuetral Malaysians by DAP and Pakatan Cybertroopers has and is pushing a lot of people from supporting PR. A lot of non political Malaysians are shocked by the fanaticism and blind devotion of these Pakatan supporters who appears to support a fascist state lead by LGE or the Mullahs of PAS. In the topic of DCM, let me refresh your and your fellow DAP Cybertroopers collective memories of the fact that before the GE, DAP itself was opposed to the concept of DCM in Penang and… Read more »

wahaibangun
wahaibangun
15 Oct 2009 8.08pm

wow! penyokong pakatan rakyat betul-betul sudah menjadi angkuh! jebat musibat kau ini bodoh ke atau buta, mana satu? pas kalah dalam semua polling post berbanding dengan ge12 dimana ladang-ladang yang majoriti herbangsa indian sokong pas dahulu.sekarang, peratus yang undi lebih dari 80 peratus.dan isu kbp adalah salah satu faktor kekalahan pas atau pakatan rakyat. tapi apa nak buat,penyokong buta macam pakatan rakyat hanya pandai bodoh sombong sahaja!

Denzuko1
Denzuko1
15 Oct 2009 6.16pm

Kg Buah Pala has everything to do with Bagan Pinang. Bare in mind that more than 20% of population is Indian and seeing what is reported on the papers on how LGE handles the case, who in Bagan Pinang with the right mind would cast his vote on the opposition? One thing that the oppositions depends too much on is statistics and ignored the more important factor, perception. Yes, incident might be small but people can blow it up, as in such case.

Steven Yang
Steven Yang
15 Oct 2009 4.26pm

And now Najib has introduced the 1TOILET programme…

crash
crash
15 Oct 2009 4.23pm

nkkhoo October 14th, 2009 at 7.24pm · Reply That was exactly DAP and PKR idiots told KBP residents that Gerakan was grasping their land. The hard evidence can be found in youtube.com. Why so fast to change mind after 308? Indian voters in Bagan Pinang are doing good service to teach PR a hard lesson. How a coward with no name in internet dares to tell me what to do in my life? —————————————————- seriously mate. ur brain?… are you listening to yourself? you actually telling me to go watch youtube for evidence?… coward with no name in internet? what… Read more »

OM7
OM7
15 Oct 2009 2.40pm

I agree with Anil on the reasons why PR lost by such a big majority. PR has been sleeping while BN has been repairing the damage. To say that PR does not need to worry about the recent by election is absolutely stupid and naive. Najib is a very experienced politician and a formidable opponent. His father was former PM, he became an MP at the age of 23, he was MB of Pahang, he has held office in various ministries not to forget he was coached by both Anwar and Mahathir. That makes him a very dangerous person to… Read more »

Jebat musibat
Jebat musibat
15 Oct 2009 2.09pm

no one believe the lost of bagan penang caused by indian (KBP relate) issue.

but i surely 90% believed it lost are came from postal vote by army.

Alonso Fulat
Alonso Fulat
15 Oct 2009 11.05am

anil, kg buah pala has got nothing to do with Bagan Pinang. just dun understand why you need to keep on highlighting this issue. Like KKLim mentioned, what is kg buah pala issue compared to other land grab issues? if you stay in Penang and you only focused to the local issues, then mention in your article. why make the kg buah pala issue seems like a national issue. what about the cow head issue? be more sincere and neutral in your writing if you want to write about Bagan pinang. kg buah pala has got nothing to do with… Read more »