Sarawak analysis shows different picture

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Most people think that the main gains for the opposition in Sarawak came from the ethnic Chinese. But an analysis by political science professor Bridget Welsh shows a different picture.

As you can see, the biggest opposition gains in percentage share of  voters came from the Orang Ulu, Malay and Bidayuh groups – higher than the Iban and Chinese gains.

This could be because the baseline for Chinese voters was already high, given that many of them reside in urban areas and had already voted for the opposition in 2006.

The other myth is that the opposition gains (in percentage terms) came from urban areas. Not so. The largest gains in percentage terms came from semi-rural seats.

Again, this could be because the urban seats had already seen high levels of support in 2006; thus they had a higher baseline compared to semi-rural and rural seats.

This time around, I imagine the voter awareness has spread out from urban areas to reach semi-rural areas such as Batu Kawah, Dudong and Piasau. It has even reached rural areas, which experienced a distinct increase in support for the opposition, but not enough for a tsunami – yet.

Bridget’s analysis in Malaysiakini also points to something of a ‘youth revolt’:

In the lower polling streams, where new voters are concentrated, more than 70% of voters opposed the BN. Given the largely young crowds at rallies, especially in Kuching and Miri, this is no surprise.

We see two pattern – higher mobilisation of younger voters, an estimated 16% increase in turnout compared to older voters, and an overwhelming level of support for Pakatan among younger voters in the lower streams, with a change in trend of over 25%. In 2006, there was already stronger support for the opposition among the youth, but this appears to have significantly increased.

What this suggests to me is that political awareness is growing. It is reaching younger voters (who are also the biggest users of new media and new technology) while simultaneously fanning out from the cities and towns to sub-urban and semi-urban areas and even creeping into rural areas.

With increasing awareness over time will come a new consciousness. Expect the ruling coalition to come under even more pressure the next time around.

To me, the results of the Sarawak should not be looked at in ethnic terms but should be seen as a function of how aware voters are of the governance issues of the day and whether they are able to see a connection between these issues and their immediate daily problems and needs.

That said, those of us in the urban areas should not be arrogant enough to think that we know what is best for our counterparts in the interior areas. There is much that we too can learn from those living in the interior areas – about the importance of community solidarity and networks, food self-sufficiency, and the ability to live in harmony with the natural environment with a minimal carbon footprint.

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Jen

Taib has never been so squeezed from so many directions before not even after he re-married. His wife will not be able to save him. This time he may well be fighting for his political life and winning the State elections becomes a pyrrhic victory.. It is also ironic as he did UMNO a favour in delivering Sarawak in the elections but it is uncertainty UMNO will return this favour by delivering him from his judgement. UMNO will have great excuse to sack him if found guilty of corruption by MACC or FINMA but the Swiss bet is more likely… Read more »

Sherine

The essential conditions for a PR victory are the capture of 8 seats each in Sabah and Sarawak, a 10% Chinese swing, no change in Indian support and critically, a 3.6% Malay swing to PR. Note that this analysis is based on national averages; it does not consider seat results due to local conditions, local demography or the popularity of a candidate.

http://hornbillunleashed.wordpress.com/2011/04/30/17694/

Phua Kai Lit

Dr Machiavelli’s vision of the Malaysian political world:

DAP = “racist” political party
Perkasa = NGO that is only defending legitimate Malay rights
(including such rights as “Ketuanan Melayu”)

**************************************
PR = vehicle used by Anwar Ibrahim to realise his dream of becoming PM
BN = coalition of political parties that fairly represents the interest of all Malaysians

Question: what does Dr M think of the 3 million Malay votes (out of 5 million) in the last General Election that went to Pakatan Rakyat political parties? All fooled by Anwar Ibrahim? All traitors to the “Malay rights” cause?

Gerakan K

Ah Phua,

Perkasa is not UMNO and UMNO is not Perkasa

Listen to Mr Najib instead. He is in charge now.

semuanya OK kot

Also, dayakbaru.com says Opposition votes totalled 44.76%, up from 37.07%. I look forward to the follow-up barking from a certain racist ex-tyrant M, who is hoping there will be no major change that puts him in jail.

Yang

Gerakan K, Of course you don`t care how they win. Whether its through corruption or vote buying, you definitely don`t care because what you care is just to get the benefit and it does not matter whether it is dirty or corruptible money. How can a wannabe care because he only want that pittance even to the extend of selling of his own kind. But to us we care. We care for the people and country to make sure that everybody whether he is a Malay, Chinese or Indian live and work hard and enjoy the benefit that is CLEAN… Read more »

Gerakan K

Your statement:
***********
you definitely don`t care because what you care is just to get the benefit
***********

Of course lah. So why vote BN ??? I want my bak kut teh, roasted pork, beer, concert, toto, genting, bikini, mini skirt, etc.

Don’t take those things for granted. Those things just easy to access because of BN. I can’t confidently say so if not BN in the federal government.

You must realize the consequences of CHANGE as promoted by some self-appointed god’s representatives.

Yang

Gerakan K,
And you have change yourself into another kind betraying your own kind for that pittance.Continue to hold on to the b… of that kind. Well we dont because we have dignity.

DBR

Yet again maybe you are intoxicated with alcohol
The things you say are simply rubbish talk
You know the saying think before u say anything??
Now is a good time to start….think using your brain

Jong

Very encouraging indeed!
Let’s hope Pakatan Rakyat will use this opportunity to strike when the iron is hot, keep up the momentum and not wait till GE is announced to move into position and prepare themselves to focus on parliamentary seats in coming GE-13.

wandererAUS

The obvious signs were the “Wind of change is gradually blowing across Sarawak” but, money politics was still alive and helpful to BN. Whether PR could use this burning desire from Sarawakians for change into a future vehicle to capture the State Govt and improve with more Parliamentary seats to capture Putrajaya is left to be seen. PR should not rest on their laurels but, to find means tp unlock the chains that tied the local malays and the natives ….who depended on “aids” from BN to merely survive. The one obvious outcome that was predictable…the people from the hornbill… Read more »

Hamiz

Maybe Najypt should listen again to Scorpion’s ‘Wind of Change’ to remind him of the ‘Angin Ubah’ yang akan melanda Semenanjung Malaysia.

I think Amy Search or Wings can sing the malay version of this song in their coming concert. It is very appropriate for Malaysia.

peng

Yeah, this analysis should shut up the mouths of those who jumped the gun too quickly and spew out racists comments.

kingkong

As usual AMNO still keep the eyes close and ears deaf and still shouting…

Hamiz

That’s the reason why they will continue to lose votes, especially among hte young voters.

The mainstream media will continue to spin but the credibility is always doubted and questioned by the internet-savvy generation.

Ahmad Sobri

The rise in voters sentiments against the BN is broadbase. It is not only in the urban areas alone as judged by the recent Sarawak elections. Even those in the semi urban and rural areas had awaken. This does not bode well for the BN. And the supposed bad feelings between Taib and the Federal Government who wants him to be removed soonest, may see Taib sabotaging BN’s efforts. Taib actions can easily cause BN to lose 20 Parliamentary seats. As it is, judging by the recent Parliamentary election, PR is expected to win 10 Parliamentary seats from Sarawak alone!… Read more »

Gerakan K

Perkasa is NGO and just like Dong Jiao Zong, another NGO.

Can DAP ask Dong Jiao Zong shut up ??? Can LGE ask Dong Jiao Zong shut up ???

Yeah, you know what I mean. If you don’t then ask Anil to help you.

IF you somehow managed to persuade LGE to ask Dong Jiao Zong shut up, I will respect you and thumb your comment up each time you comment in this blog.

For now, thumb down for your comment.

Andrew I

I thought you said you don’t thumb up/down comments. Besides, won’t make much difference. You’re king of the drawer.

Gerakan K

I said rarely but not never. It’s time to contact your english teacher via 1Malaysia email 🙂

Andrew I

I’m not as extravagant as you. If I’m not sure of a word, I usually look it up in the dictionary. You obviously don’t know what that is or else you wouldn’t suggest that I contact my English teacher. :-p

Meng Chye

For your info, Dong Jiao Zong never impose anything on non-chinese. However, the same cannot be said for Perkasa which has demanded non-malays to kow-tow to Ketuanan Melayu. That’s the difference.

Gerakan K

My point is that a political party can’t stop any NGO making any demand, be it UMNO or DAP.

Gerakan K

Previous belief was Pr only strong in urban + chinese areas. And pr believe that if they can get some support from Orang Ulu, Malay and Bidayuh, then maybe they can win with simple majority. But now this is the bad bad news for pr. Why ??? It is because in this report shows that pr equally done well in urban and semi urban. Not just that they also got support from Orang Ulu, Malay and Bidayuh. But look at their total seats that have won. Just too little to have any impact. The only way pr can win is… Read more »

Andrew I

It’s only mission impossible because some people cheat by using government organs, from msm to transportation and promising development using government funds i.e. OUR money and claiming credit for it. Election boundaries are drawn like the path left by a sidewinder to secure more votes.

How not to win?

Until you play like a gentleman, no one is going to applaud your win. It’s something someone of your stature wouldn’t comprehend.

Gerakan K

I too failed to understand about you. Who cares how they win ??? Who cares what LKS said ???

What does matter is that Mr Taib is my Sarawak CM for this term.

kozekx

It is quite easy to understand you. You are a product of what the BN wants every rakyat to be. Short sighted and silo mentality. May one day, you see the light and become free from these shackles.

Gerakan K

Aiya, I too know your mentality, support BN = stupid and support pr = see the light.

Betul tak ???

Anyway, respect my choice, OK ??? I just can’t see any future in pr.

I want my beer, whisky, concert, bikini, mini skirt, bak kut teh, and etc. That is just simple needs that I needed to worry when voting for pr. Please, I won’t accept any public stoning in Malaysia. I’m a kind soul. I also hate any self-appointed god’s representative.

Andrew I

A kind soul who will support any means of winning and tolerate corruption.

DBR

Just curious..are you by any chance high or drunk when you’re commenting on this??

Jong

And if your CM Taib is smart, he will realise who is behind that MCA’s VP and Deputy Minister of Youth and Sports Gan Ping Sieu call for him(Taib) to step down earlier than the two-year time frame he had given himself.

Taib needs to realise that his real enemies are too near for comfort, from within.

http://malaysiakini.com/news/162050

Gerakan K

That is bodeking work in action and my legendary CM Mr Taib knows how to deal with it.

By the way, who is Gan when Mr Taib gave BN 2/3 in Sarawak ???

Andrew I

Here we are, Ladies and Gentlemen. Gherkin K laid bare for all to see.

Yang

Its not mission impossibe. Its just an uphill start with the buying from BN.The swing has now started. It will be impossible for BN & Taib to win the Chinese and other rural votes come next election. Gerakan, MCA, MIC and UMNO are now shaking with fear. Sarawak will need Najib to save them from the next defeat. He would need to sleep in the ulu more often. Meanwhile back in Peninsula, Gerakan, MCA, MIC and UMNO are now shaking with fear. UMNO fearing for it demise, has Perkasa trying to prop up their declining Malay votes with extremist and… Read more »

Sin Huat

Please ignore Gerakan K.

here is a good analysis of Sarawak election results:
http://hornbillunleashed.wordpress.com/2011/04/21/17503/

Gerakan K

I have read that report.

Let’s discuss it. In which part or particular point in the report that looks good ???

Are you mean this point raised in the report:

Non-chinese not united against BN like the chinese ???

Please reply and let’s talk about it.

Sewel

heartening to see the Malay swing to the opposition. that translates to Malaysia having hope.

Gerakan K

Malay swinging to opposition ??? Yeah, they have done that but the opposition still the opposition. No use at all. Only mission impossible, ie grab PBB seats will make sense.

Yang

Yeah but they will no more opposition come next election. Just like Gerakan in Penang, it will see the demise of PBB & Taib. Penang, Perak and Selangor were the fortress for BN, MCA and Gerakan but it finally fall.Yes this is the start of the fall of Sarawak and Taib PBB. The start has begun with the DAP front. Other fronts will soon follow..

Shana Babu

Everybody knows that UMNO owns Utusan and that Utusan is the mouthpiece of UMNO. Does anybody, other than the UMNO President, believe that the ‘1 Melayu, 1 Bumi movement, is the personal opinion of Utusan but not UMNO?

Eloi

Statistical analysis is a good yard stick but that is all. It doesn’t win elections. It is a “feel good” diversion. Now that it is done with, the work should start . In normal case scenario, this statistic will be reviewed and discussed at great length and then again just before the next election. By then, the statistic would be outdated and strategies taken would be wrong. Why can’t the candidates be decided now? Pick 2 or 3 to “work” the area and organize awareness programs. Bring in big-wigs from time to time to talk to the people. The outstanding… Read more »

talk-kok

Semua racist la…

Noorzambri Khadir

a good sign for oppossition

hafiz yusof

interesting fact!!!

Hamiz

The fact that the ‘Sudut Pandang’ and ‘Analisis Sarawak’ on Astro Awani Ch501 failed to came up with such insight and analysis is a testimony that the channel is biased in its reporting to show only the positive news of BN and sidelined any favourable aspects of the opposition.

Sin Huat

BN must be sincere in creating a more racially-inclusive Malaysia. Umno has been insincere in its heir promotion of 1Malaysia as it was not seen to able to control Utusan Malaysia and Perkasa.

The political wake-up call was not only limited to the Chinese, but to many urban voters. No amount of donations to Chinese schools or other causes has helped put BN in a better light, as it is an outdated move. The Chinese have been paying for their own schools even when they were overwhelmingly voting for the BN.

Racist Remarks are not productive

Fact is that those who utter racist remarks on this blog is totally counterproductive to the Rakyat of Malaysia.

Those who lambasted the “rurals” for not voting for PR ought to be ashamed of themselves.