The seat breakdowns for the peninsula among Pakatan Rakyat parties in 2013 and Pakatan Harapan parties in 2018. (The 2013 figures were provided to me by a source from PKR. Let me know if any corrections.):
| 2013 | 2018 | |
| PKR | 64 | 51 |
| Pas | 65 | – |
| Bersatu | – | 52 |
| Amanah | – | 27 |
| DAP | 36 | 35 |
| Total | 165 | 165 |
Interesting breakdown. On the surface, Bersatu may have got a lot of seats for a new party, but I suspect many of those seats could be difficult-to-win Umno strongholds ie seats that Pas may have contested and lost in 2013.
But has Pakatan given a thought about how to accommodate Parti Sosialis Malaysia, which has championed many pro-people policies? Where does Sungai Siput figure in all this? Will they always be marginalised?
So what do you make of Mahathir and Wan Azizah as Pakatan’s choice for prime minister and deputy prime minister?
If you are idealistic or unable to accept that the circumstances surrounding this election warrant exceptional measures, then Mahathir, with all his baggage, would not be a suitable candidate. I can understand this view.
But if you feel that real change can only be achieved once we are able to move beyond race and religion, once Umno is dislodged from power without alarming many of its supporters, then Mahathir would be the pragmatic choice to reassure them during the transition period to a new government, ie if the BN was to lose.
In any case, it will be an uphill task for Pakatan to reach out to rural voters in the peninsula (let alone Sarawak), to deal with all the expected BN/government handouts, to overcome appeals on ethnic or religious grounds, to overcome the handicap of money politics and gerrymandering, and to convince Umno supporters that they will be better off with a cleaner, more accountable government that has the long-term interests of the country at heart.
Pakatan also has to offer real change rather than a Coke vs Pepsi kind of choice. They have to come up with genuine pro-people policies that will capture the imagination of the people including rural voters and the youth.
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Big test for whoever governs after GE14 should be massive national debts and also private households debt woes.
https://www.themalaysianinsight.com/s/31341/
No need to be over euphoric. Be prepared for stormy weather ahead.
Due to excess spending, the Malaysian government’s debt under BN has grown an average 10% a year over the past 10 years to reach RM687.43 billion as at end-September 2017, from RM266.72 billion in 2007. In fact, the annual growth averaged 10.8% a year between 1997 and 2017.
A big part of the debt spiral is because operating expenditure of BN (bliated civil service) grew an average 6% a year in the past 10 years to RM219.91 billion in 2017 from RM123.1 billion in 2007 — faster than its revenue growth.
Unchecked overspending by the Prime Minister’s Office and disproportionate allocation of development funds have led to the official government debt fast approaching RM700 billion, said a prominent economist. Former United Nations assistant secretary-general Jomo Kwame Sundaram said there was an urgent need for greater transparency and accountability in “off-budget” infrastructure spending, which is not part of the federal government budget and is thereby unaccountable to Parliament. “What Malaysia needs now is more appropriate development expenditure, not yet more operating expenditure, especially for the PMO, which has grown more than tenfold and has centralised power like never before.” “Meanwhile, most infrastructure… Read more »
Ambiga Sreenevasan, former Chairperson of the Coalition for Clean and Fair Elections or Bersih movement, was one such voice raising concerns over the campaign. In response, she tweeted, “Let me be clear. Boycotting an election may send a message where the elections are clean and fair. Where the elections are NOT clean and fair (as in our country), boycotting only helps those in power and works AGAINST the people who are trying to change the rotten system.”
Why the opposition has a shot at toppling the Barisan Nasional with Mahathir at the helm
With the announcement that Mahathir is the opposition’s pick for prime minister should they win the next election, UMNO can expect a credible challenge on its home turf, says the Penang Institute’s Dr Ooi Kee Beng.
Read more at https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/asiapacific/commentary-mahathir-opposition-shot-at-topping-barisan-nasional-9841224
Patrick Teoh on ‘Vote for Change’:
Who are you really punishing with #UndiRosak? The last election showed that change was the popular choice demonstrated by popular votes. Has the general sense of wanting a change gone with the wind after 5 years? If not, then is this the right avenue to show your dissatisfactions? The real question is, are you punishing the opposition, or the Rakyat that had been dreaming of change.
https://www.facebook.com/Patrick.Teoh.KY/posts/10155051202706603
Pakatan Harapan is still hoping that Sungai Siput MP Dr Michael Jeyakumar will contest under their ticket in the upcoming general election.
Despite Jeyakumar’s decision to contest under the Parti Sosialis Malaysia banner, sources inside Pakatan say the coalition feels he stands a better chance of victory on a PKR ticket.
A high-ranking party insider told Malay Mail that Jeyakumar was still the best man for the job.
“The ideal situation is for Dr Jeyakumar to contest under the PKR ticket. At the moment, we would rather not contest,” the source said.
Abstaining or spoiling one’s ballot will also likely deliver the election to BN and more; the ruling coalition which lost its two-thirds parliamentary majority in 2008 will have a strong chance of winning it back. BN retained the federal government in 2013 with only 47% of the total votes. With the current redelineation exercise and multi-corner fights this time, BN might win a two-thirds majority, even with less votes. If BN succeeds, it can add more seats in the Dewan Rakyat; and with another round of redelineation exercise that must be done in two years, you can expect worse gerrymandering… Read more »
Christian is whipped for selling sharia-banned alcohol in Muslim-majority Aceh, Indonesia as prosecutor states he ‘bowed’ to religious law.
https://www.google.com/amp/www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5288709/amp/Christian-whipped-selling-alcohol-Islamic-law.html
PAS-Umno alliance could make such scenario possible in Malaysia?
Pakatan Harapan (PH) coalition can only form a stable federal government — even under the best conditions — if it can win more seats in east Malaysia, according to a Politweet simulation. The simulation by the social media research firm used the Opposition’s performance during the 2013 general election as its base year and gave PH a five-point increase (an additional five per cent chance of a person voting for them), which saw them forming a government with 115 to 117 out of the 222 parliamentary seats. “In a straight fight against (ruling coalition) BN (Barisan Nasional), PH can form… Read more »
Najib’s 1MDB with Saudi as revealed on BBC documentary:
Sungai Siput may be more than 3 parties standing for GE14.
The residents now should be smart to list physical infrastructure requirements (hospital, school, etc) to cater for B40.
Spiritual assistance from PSM not necessarily can alleviate high cost of livings of barang naik era.
How to rig an election (The Economist) One trick is gerrymandering, drawing constituency boundaries so that lots of opposition voters are packed into a few seats, while ruling-party supporters form a narrow majority in a larger number. Lots of this goes on in Malaysia, as elsewhere: the new boundaries put two opposition bastions in the state of Perak into the same seat. Gerrymandering is made even easier by another electoral abuse called malapportionment. This involves creating districts of uneven populations, so that those which support the opposition are much bigger than those that back the government. That means, in effect,… Read more »
Toppling Umno will free the Malays from the feudal and racist entrapment perpetrated through decades of Umno’s hegemonic rule.
And that will usher in a new era, when the promised reforms will bring forth the release of the long-suppressed potentials of the nation.
Most important are the Malay voters in Rural and Urban. Will they allow kleptocrat UMNO BN to continue in power?
Will they vote to support GST and high cost of living? Malay’s wisdom in polling day is the most important in this coming GE. PH or BN, they must decide now. RULE OF LAW or RULE BY LAW, Muslim voters please decide. SAVE OUR COUNTRY.
Only MALAYS CAN DO IT. Please Wake Up!
Malaysia’s electoral authorities are rushing through new maps that critics say will further tilt the bias in favour of the long-ruling BN at a general election expected within the next few months.
http://www.straitstimes.com/asia/se-asia/new-electoral-maps-set-to-favour-ruling-coalition
BN stands to gain between eight and 10 more seats in the 222-member Parliament if they are approved, assuming voters vote the same way they did in the last polls.
Can Mahathir’s party win Malaysia?
PPBM seems to have made inroads among the young, but it will have to take on Umno in traditional Malay strongholds. Most importantly, it must manage its coalition partners.
http://www.straitstimes.com/opinion/can-mahathirs-party-win-malaysia
It is a pity that The Malaysian Insight is now ahead anilnetto.com in terms of Penang hot issues ahead of GE14. I suppose Anil is practising self-restraint so as not to trigger action from MCMC?
Penang’s hot-button issues ahead of GE14
https://www.themalaysianinsight.com/s/35123/
Was asian 2020 Tun Mahathir VS TN 2050 Najib Debat Di TV3?
BN will win by gerrymandering.
According to the Financial Times Confidential Report on the outlook for the Opposition pact’s bid for federal power, the outlet said the informal coalition was too exposed on several fronts and Dr Mahathir’s draw was inadequate to address these. “First, PAS is determined to stand in seats it previously did not contest despite having little chance of winning, thus potentially splitting the opposition vote. “Second, PH is weak in Borneo, where about a quarter of seats are located. Without a serious breakthrough there, PH would need to win about two-thirds of peninsular seats to control parliament, which is a difficult… Read more »
fact; PSM is not @pakatanharapan_ member, thus it has non relevant in your article. Please do not divert the fact.
I didn’t say it was part of Pakatan Harapan.
PSM is not a member of Pakatan simply because DAP doesn’t want them. They’re “icky” by DAP’s standard. Simple as that. Why? Because PSM represent disenfranchised voters, underclasses who, guess what, made up of mostly poor Indians. Why would DAP want a “poor partner” in Pakatan when this demographic of poor voters are not of immediate importance to them? Ladies and gentlemen , this is the true color of DAP. This is the true face of DAP. Capitalistic through and through, greedy… On top of that, DAP has gotten so greedy and arrogant that they [allegedly] even want to “bolot”… Read more »
True colour of one use race, religion, fear politics, lagi Satu project slogan, ferry meandering, post votes and aca to haunt the opposition.
Pg opp. Leader will call it a day in coming election after 24 years as ADUN . Her proud moment is when she help 200 stall holders. This is what engineer’s party can do. 24 years of service for 200 stall holders. The rest of the years hibernation
PSM needs to look at the big picture and join Harapan, instead of being a spoiler especially at Sg. Siput.
But will Harapan let them join?
Is PSM waiting for invitation?
Ego must be put aside for the common goal.
Only PSM dares to criticise Mad Hatter. He was the biggest drawback for gomen when aligned to it. Now, he is the biggest drawback for the opposition. PSM is the only party relally working for us without a covert agenda.
Jaya or Arul can be allied to become senator later to be absorbed under PM department with portfolio as B40 Welfare Minister.
Indian Temple in Masai, Johor demolished days before Pongal festival.
https://m.malaysiakini.com/news/408497
PSM should help devotees to demand answer from the Johor authority.
PSM please get real.
If you hang on to the past, you might as well continue to hate the Japanese today for their World War 2 aggresion in Malaya.
Move on !
Let’s not suffer from the Emperor’s New Clothes syndrome. The elephant in the room is the nomination of Mahatir as the PM. This is the biggest, worst regressive step in the history of Malaysian politics. How can PH hopes voters would choose the party with this choice of it’s PM? This is a classic Machiavellian politics in action.
With dumno supporting him and praising him and shedding crocodile tears for more than 20 years during his premiership