K Terengganu by-election: The old numbers game

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Yesterday I heard on the radio news (one of the Astro channels, I think) that the BN had 30,000 supporters accompanying their candidate on nomination day. The Pas candidate could just muster 15,000 supporters, the newscaster said.

But Raja Petra, who is predicting a Pas win by a majority of 5,000 votes, warns us:

Whatever the mainstream newspapers reported today, don’t you believe it! PAS saw a crowd of 30,000 to 40,000 supporters. And the crowd was wall-to-wall — from the Stadium Negeri, where the nomination papers were filed, right up to the old penyu round-a-bout, where the penyu no longer lives. Most importantly, the crowd was mostly local folks and their dressing, sarong just below the knee, and Terengganu slang was so distinct there was no doubt about them being locals. I mean, only locals would shout “Hancur, hancur…….hancur bee eng” and “Menang, menang……menang Pakatang.”

Umno, however, saw a crowd of only 5,000 or so, plus-minus. In fact, there were more police stationed in Kuala Terengganu — 6,000 according to what was reported — than Umno supporters. Sources from inside the Umno operations centre put the figure at 7,000 supporters at the most and, according to these same inside sources, 80% were from outstation. We were told Umno brought in their supporters in 80 buses — so these figures would certainly tally. At least Umno and we agree on this issue.

It was heart-warming to see the PAS supporters carrying DAP flags. And the Chinese, in turn, were carrying PAS flags. Even the Chinese ‘dragon’ had a PAS flag in its mouth. If you were to say that PAS supporters have feelings of animosity with DAP with regards to the Hudud issue, and that the Chinese are unhappy with PAS about this same issue, you could have fooled me. Whatever the top leadership of the two parties may be saying, the mood on the ground is that the Hudud issue is a non-issue.

What is your prediction of the by-election result?

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zztop

PKR must win to throw the current corrupt, arrogant, racialistic government out forever. I dont believe what I readin the media anymore. They are just tools for BN parties.
Go voter from KT go.. vote for PKR.

New Malaysian

Dear Aneel, YOU ARE LETTING THE RAKYAT DOWN!!! AFTER PERMATANG PAUH, WE ARE OF COURSE EXPECTING YOU TO BE REPORTING FROM GORUND ZERO IN KT. WHAT’S WITH THE QOUTING OF RPK??? CAN YOU PLEASE GET ON THE EARLIEST POSSIBLE BUS/PLANE AND GET YOUR BUTT TO KT SO THAT THE MALAYSIAN PUBLIC WHO HAVE BEEN ACCUSTOMED TO YOUR GROUND-ZERO REPORTING MAY ONCE AGAIN PARTAKE OF YOUR TALENT FOR REPORTING IT LIKE IT IS!!!! haha, New Malaysian, let me clear the work in the office first and then we will see… In the meantime, I am sure the other bloggers there are… Read more »

Phua Kai Lit

Dear Anil Here are my latest “Laws of Malaysian Politics”: The Ninth Law of Malaysian Politics The imprecision of estimation of crowd size (in political turnouts) by the mainstream media is directly proportional to the size of the turnout for Opposition crowds but inversely proportional to the size of the turnout for Ruling Regime crowds. The Eighth Law of Malaysian Politics The laws of economics do not apply to Malaysia, especially if Malaysian political leaders say so The Seventh Law of Malaysian Politics The number of police present at a civil society event is directly proportional to the number of… Read more »

veryupset

I m not a Malay.

I want PAS to WIN BIG in KT…!

romerz

Without your permission I copied your posting. Hope you don’t mind. If you do, please let me know and I’ll remove it.

Any plans to go to KT? SMS me if you are planning to do so. I’m interested to go but present commitments makes it a little dodgy. But I’m going to try for at least a day or 2.

My prediction? A slim PAS win, probably by the same under 1,000 margin. Deep down inside though, I think (or rather hoping) RPK’s 5,000 handicap might just have a slim chance.

NeverSayNever

If someone had told me 20 years ago that 20 years later I would be rooting for a PAS win, I would have just rubbished him.

I hope for a PAS win in KT and may they win BIG!

Antares

From now on it’s all downhill for Umno/BN. Good riddance!

Moonrider

I think this is very critical test for BN and PR. Majority is malays vote.

Non-Malays , i believe 90% will vote for Bulatan ..

Most of KT folks still favourite reading the poison ivy Utusan papers .. so it depends on the younger generation to send them the clear message on what really happening ..

I predict PAS will win .. with a majority 2000 votes ..

Go!Malaysian...

i hope Pakatan Rakyat will win in this by election so the Barisan Nasional will now what they doing in this past 50 years really s***!!!

Always play racist issue then how we can achieve out unity???

Lets Vote For Our Future!

let BN “Be End”!!!

Berita-Berita Terkini P36 Kuala Terengganu

K

Well Raja Petra is hardly a paragon of independent reportage and an unbiased commentator…as such his views should be taken with a pinch of salt just like we view the MSM. In any case I think it is not a good practise in terms of safety and security not to mention good governance that we allow massive crowds to accompany the candidates in such by-elections. The EC and the police should work on the necessary legislation to outlaw such practices. Though this is not a new phenomenon, howvever this is getting out of hand lately with both BN and PR… Read more »

Rajan

…down with BN and I will definitely curse MCA and MIC for supporting the UMNO jerks

yh

i dont want to predict. i just pray for a PAS victory. Fork-tongue BN will have to lose.

rakyat@work

Anil, Its nice to see BN packing and heading the opposite direction home – empty handed. There’s another interesting website with updates too. http://beyond51.blogspot.com KT election may well set another milestone and record breaking as the nation continues to evolved into a more mature country.

Kensan

The signs were written all over,not among the stars but the moon!If there is another Monsoon Cup to be given away,this time the KT folks will vote PAS in the battle-royale and the trophy will certainly go to
Abdul Wahid Endut!

siew eng

Nutgraph also reports unofficial police figures estimate crowd for opposition at 30k; BN 3k – http://www.thenutgraph.com/nomination-day-in-KT

lanwm

is 8k majority too much to ask for? eheh

eaglewings

Anil, why are you wasting your time listening to the local radio news? Too free? Go to KT and blog from there.

Rashid

My prediction is that Pas will win the seat with a majority of 3,000-5,000. anyway, you can have a poll as you did for the PP by-election.

Justin Choo

This by-election has no efect on the present administration. So there is nothing to lose.

This gives more reason to vote in order to kick out the rotten egg rather than to elect an incumbent.

Speak Up Malaysia

I predict PAS will win and Syed Albar’s pants will go up in flames:
http://sum8308.blogspot.com/2009/01/syed-albar-look-your-pants-are.html

SPEAK UP KT
Kuala Terengganu voters, please send the politicians these 3 messages on behalf of all Anak Bangsa Malaysia:

1. ISA IS EVIL, ISA MUST GO.

2. THE POLITICS OF HATE AND RACISM HAVE NO PLACE IN MALAYSIA TODAY.

3. BRING BACK A PROPER SEPARATION OF POWERS BETWEEN THE MALAYSIAN EXECUTIVE, LEGISLATURE, JUDICIARY AND MEDIA.