Just three days to go. And the suspense is building up. For some it is too close to call. Let’s take a look at a few predictions.
Ong Kian Ming predicts a winning majority for Dyana of over 1000 in an optimistic scenario. If turnout is much lower, however, she could lose by over 1000 votes, he adds.
Our resident pundit Abdul Rahman Kasim of Pas thinks Dyana will secure at most a 3000-vote majority.
I will stick my neck out and say 5000.
Again, as in Penang, a lot depends on the turnout. In Bukit Gelugor, Penang, the turnout was 30 percentage points lower (from 86 per cent in GE13 to 56 per cent in the by-election) mainly because the BN was not contesting.
In contrast, in Teluk Intan, the BN is contesting; so the turnout is not going to drop by as much. In GE12, the turnout was 70 per cent and in GE13, it rose to 80 per cent. So perhaps in this by-election, we could see a turnout of around 70 per cent.
In GE13, Seah Leong Peng of the DAP won with a majority of 7313 while back in GE12, M Manogaran (DAP) squeezed through by 1470 votes. So this time around, I think we could see something in between those two majorities. Just a guess based on a hunch that more younger Malaysians are ready to break free from the strait jacket of race-based politics.
What do you folks think?
Thanks to blog visitor Don Anamalai for the video link.