Update: Postal votes could be crucial in Bagan Pinang. According to the chart here, Pusasda (Pusat Latihan Asas Tentera Darat) Kem Si Rusa falls under this state assembly seat with close to 2,000 postal voters. In March last year, Harakah reported an alleged irregularity involving a Bagan Pinang postal voter here.
Bagan Pinang Adun Azman Md Noor (BN) passed away in Seremban, according to a tweet from Khairykj.
In the 2008 general election, the first-term assembly member won the seat with a 2,333-vote majority over his Pas rival, winning by a 6,430-4,097 margin.
That was a drop from the 4,411 BN majority in the 2004 general election.
It falls under the Teluk Kemang parliamentary seat held by PKR.
For the second time in eight by-elections (including Bagan Pinang) in the peninsula since the 2008 general election, a by-election will be held in a BN seat. Pas had overturned a 628-vote BN majority in the Kuala Terengganu parliamentary seat to win the seat by 2,631 votes in a by-election held in January.
So will it be 8-1 or 7-2 after this by-election?
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BN (allegedly) manipulated postal votes all this while. What is stopping you(PR) from doing the same thing. Understand the mechanism. Work out your plans. There is always a loophole. Test your methods in preparation of GE-13. Or is it easier to say we lose because of postal votes?
All the projections assume Indian voters have only two options. Indian voters actually have 3 options – BN/PR/Abstain. If the Indian voters abstained, this will be a sure lose for PR.
It is time PR updated their calculations. Indians have 3 options.
The cow head factor, the dialogue that was not a dialogue but showing the true colour of some extremists, the Negeri MB factor, the Khairy factor, the Teoh factor, the PM factor, the Hisham factor and many others factors will favour Pakatan. Pakatan has to work on 9000 votes if all turn up to vote (which will not happen). If less than 10,000 turn out to vote plus the postal votes, it may not favour PR. If 12000 turn out to vote, it may favour PR. BN will make sure that 5000 postal votes are secured.PR still has the chance… Read more »
HINDRAF shud help further democracy in BAGAN PINANG by distributing VCDs of cow head demo by UMNO division n branch heads n Hishamuddin giving press conference flanked by the UMNO extremists 2 EACH N EVERY INDIAN VOTER
DAP shud explain
Yes. Postal Threat.Like it or not majority always go to them.They will retain the seat.
The reduced majority will be considered a consolation win for the opposition the way it happened in Manek Urai.
So far opposition only won at their own ground.So this time is their chance to capitalise on home ground advantage. Moreover they have a better record to show as they proceed to the south.
Hanya Iblis dan UMNO yang kebal di dunia ni, mereka dijamin bebas melakukan kerosakan di dunia dan tidak akan diambil tindakan, sama seperti pemerintah yang tidak akan mendakwa ahli UMNGOK yang membuat provokasi dan corrupt di dunia ni….
mereka tetap menerima hukuman Allah di akhirat kelak….
In Teluk Kemang by election just after 1999 general election, Ruslan Kasim of PKR got majority of the postal votes… it’s due to BN’s Indian candidate… Army’s (alleged) “guideline” or rule of thumb in voting is (believed to be)… if a malay vs Malay.. vote BN… if BN is a non Malay, Opposition is a Malay, vote opposition… And other ranks’ military personal vote is (allegedly) monitored or voted by their officers… My brother is an army officer (he is in that camp in PD..) when I asked him on this, he just laugh and never answered my question, which… Read more »
Whenever Postal Vote is involved , a sure-win for UMNO.
couple with split vote among the Indian (when will they ever learn) ,this is the time for their first long-thirst victory.
Victory guaranteed for UMNO , like it or not.
You ask for it.
This will be one hell of a dirty bye election!
Maybe in the land of Matriarchy as 9Negeri PAS or PKR might look for a WOMAN candidate !!! 😉
UMNO in N.S. is not as united as the projected image.
1. UMNO people dont like the MB. He was parachuted in by Badawi. People still have bad taste in the mouth
2. UMNO people in N.S. dont like Khairy. N.S. is considered Khairy territory.
This 2 counts will probable see internal sabotage.
These considerations plus the Indian and Chinese pro opposition stance will give BN a run for the money.
A reduction in majority will cause a big moral problem for UMNO.
I think the Cow Head incident will be in favor of Pakatan. The Kg Buah Pala issue will be 50-50 depending on who and how powerful the spin is. The other key issue is the 2,000 odd postal votes from the army camp…. hope MAFREL can help monitor the postal votes. This is still a touch and go by election… both sides have equal chance in my opinion.
…. must win this by election for Pakatan. Period. UMNO/BN make me sick.
Not necessary that a bn win is a loss of pas. We cannot
expect a swing to pas overnight. A reduced percentage vote count for bn is considered a good sign for the opposition.
Is it true there are more than 4000 postal votes and that UMNO took 2/3 last time out? That would mean a lead in the civilian votes for PR.
If they can maintain this winning streak, I have no doubt UMNO will resort to desperate measures to win – (questionable) of course. I expect nothing less, neither should PR.
A BN victory is on the card. It is difficult to fight when there is something like 5,000 postal votes. It is not going to be a fair fight. Even if 70% of the Chinese and Indians voted for PR, which I am sure they will, it will still be difficult for PR to win this seat. You know what the BN is capable of, anything to win this seat! Looks an uphill battle but nevertheless, to reduce their majority is the only aim the PR can do and to win is a jackpot! Let us look at what the… Read more »
Like I say, careful studies must be done. If win is not possible, perhaps we should try giving UMNO the winner’s curse. Short of phyrric victory, winner’s curse would confuse UMNO game plan
Give UMNO seemingly easy victory by placing a DAP candidate there. Better still put a chinese. Lets see if UMNO would be brought under the winner’s curse
Many Malays in Southern Peninsula are hardcore supporters BN compared to Malays at other parts of peninsula. I guess BN will sing all the way to victory this time.
According to http://malvu.blogspot.com,
N31 Bagan Pinang seat has 4822 postal voters with 14,192 registered voters.
BN will retain this seat.
Sorry out of topic here, DUN Pangkor has 11,221 postal votes!! OMG!
I think one of the many reasons why there are many by-election this year due divine intervention.
Maybe PR is destined to take over as federal government on next GE.
If the 19.9% Indians (of whom almost all should be Hindus) can accept the spitting and stomping of the cow’s head and the abuses hurled against the building of the temple by UMNO (supporters), then where is your dignity?
Good news! Malaysiakini reports that all the Kg. Buah Pala villagers have accepted the double storey terrace house offer to be built on part of the KBP land. So don’t say LGE let them down, he has gotten the best deal for them which they should have accepted without all the sandiwara if not for that (paid?) BN… whose name begins with S. I hope KBP is no longer an issue against PR. The issue was that the villagers were misled by political opportunists and a (paid?) BN….
This Toyo guy head is full of…. To call the cow a ‘stupid animal’ is just uncalled for. I think UMNO youth should sue him for degrading the cow which provided milk which is consume by most human including almost all UMNO members…..remember the Teresa Kok egg incident?????
COWaBagan!! It is pay back time in Bagan Pinang @ Negri Sembilan!
I hope BN will not blame cow-head protestors after the announce the result of Bagan Pinang’s BUY-Election.
Of the 14,192 registered voters here, 19.9% are Indians voters ~ 2,700 voters
Looks like the cow didn’t die in vain after all!
God is great!
Dear frens, This by election will be a test, in fact several tests. Since it will tell what the wind blows for BN or PAKATAN. The Indian votes will play crucials kingmaker while the Malay votes probably split or a little migrate to BN since UMNO playing racials(probably the main instigators) of “perceived” lost of Malay rights etc. For the Chinese, I presume still favour DAP due national issue of Teoh Beng Hock case. The recent High Chaparral “fiasco” will be the test of Indians mood and how they perceived Pakatan with DAP leaders handle it which I personally believe… Read more »
Of course, the scoreboard will read as 8 – 1 in favour of PR. In Peninsula Malaysia, it will be 8 – 0.
Muhyiddin and Khairy, what is BN’s plan for this by-election? Your “London Bridge” and “Golden Child” had failed you completely. What next?