BN would win snap polls in Perak?

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A survey has indicated that Perak would fall to the BN if snap polls were held now – but I am confused.

According to Malaysiakini:

A study by the independent think-tank Ilham Centre has shown that public support has swung back to BN, cemented with the recent court rulings in its favour.

In a poll of 1,031 people in the Kuala Sepetang state constituency last month, the centre surveyed Malays (59.96%), Chinese (31.67%), Indians (8.34%) and ‘Others’ (0.03%) to mirror the Perak population closely.

“More than 55 percent of those surveyed said that BN would win if there were to be a state election now,” said Ilham Centre’s managing director Mohd Azlan Zainal…

Now if just 53 per cent of the Malays (who make up 59 per cent of the respondents) recognise the BN government while at least two thirds of the non-Malays (who make up the remainder of the respondents) think the BN government is not legitimate, I don’t see how you can arrive at the conclusion that the BN can win the next state election. In fact, it would mean that the majority of all those with an opinion do not recognise the BN government in Perak.

Am I missing something here? Someone help, I am confused.

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Karen

Anil

Some ignorant umno pax said the RM100 came from Fed Govt. dunno how it got twisted to this extend.

That Teng Hock Nan…..he better shut up.
The RM100 can be seen extended to makcik2 pakcik2 in flats on taman sardon, etc. what Teng Hock Nan did past terns?…

so UMNO top cream get the money….see mansions… oh pleaseeeeee….we know where the source from….like (one) mansion was build by a sub-con from the last mega Fed project in Penang…

whispering9

Yeah…Born2reign statistical analysis is correct. Since the sample population is localized to K.Sepetang, B2r approach to the analysis is accurate. There is no gerrymandering factor to consider. The % racial make up of this population is quite close to the national figure,hence, the level of confidence is >90%. I agree with him….whoever prepared the official conclusion just plucked it from very thin air in opposite direction. The stat don’t add up well for BN.

Born2reign

Iron, I don’t know about political math, but I know a lying statistics when I see one. The “Lain-Lain” group consist of near 0% of the entire interviewees. Yet the chart shows 30% setuju that BN is legit. What is 30% of 0.03%? Political math will tell you it is 30%. REAL math will give you 30%x0.03%=0.009% ===> 0% of total interviewees setuju that BN is legit. The statement below is VERY misleading, and cannot be believed: “More than 55 percent of those surveyed said that BN would win if there were to be a state election now,” said Ilham… Read more »

born2reign

Guess Malaysiakini can’t count.

Of TOTAL participants (100%)
53%(Malays) x 59.96% = 31.78% think BN is legit.
5.89% Chinese think BN is legit.
1.83% Indians think BN is legit.
0% ‘Others’ think BN is legit.

Therefore only 39.5% of TOTAL participants think BN is legit.

Where this fella get 55%, please show how this local SPM holder calculate (probably got A for SPM Math) MALU!

Iron

Of TOTAL participants (100%)
53%(Malays) x 59.96% = 31.78% think BN is legit.
5.89% Chinese think BN is legit.
1.83% Indians think BN is legit.
0% ‘Others’ think BN is legit.

Therefore only 39.5% of TOTAL participants think BN is legit.

Unfortunately, you have failed political math.

The 39.5% is not 39.5%, for the 53% Malays represents much much more than the 31.78% figure due to constituency gerrymandering.

FYI, one Malay vote (probably) equals 1.5 to 2.8 non-Malay votes in Malaysia, thanks to the practice of gerrymandering.

Lee

Some may think of the poll in another way – to give a good impression to the BN government that they will win in a new election if they dissolve the State Assembly.

Iron

Japanese are doing it, why can’t Penang? http://eming.com/en/sightseeing-medical-check-up-tourism-targets-wealthy-chinese/ Sightseeing + Medical Check Up Tourism Targets Wealthy Chinese April 6, 2010 By MasPoster As the economy of China grows, the number of wealthy Chinese who can afford overseas holidays and top medical care also grows. Japan, a close neighbor of China, is trying to capture part of these markets in one go. Nishinippon Shimbun (West Japan Newspaper) reports that the Japan Tourism Agency is pushing for travel tours that combine sightseeing and medical treatment to wealthy Chinese tourists. They are promoting tours that offer travelers its advanced medical technology in diagnostics… Read more »

Iron

http://thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?file=/2010/4/3/nation/5990278 Saturday April 3, 2010 PICC project to go ahead By CHRISTINA CHIN [email protected] GEORGE TOWN: The proposed RM50mil Penang International Convention Centre (PICC) in Relau will go ahead as planned even if the Penang Municipal Council (MPPP) has to fork out the money. Council president Patahiyah Ismail, speaking at a press conference yesterday, said although it would be better if the project was funded by the private sector, the council would still carry on without it. Chief Minister Lim Guan Eng, who was also present, said some in the media had tried to make it seem like the council… Read more »

Devan

Zambry,
What are u waiting for?
Take the advice from this Ilham guy and go and see your Sultan and get the assembly dissolved !!!
Sure the BN has the support of the Rakyat…
Get your UMNO Blogs including the Racist Utusan to spin this piece of wonderful news.
Also get Ibrahim Ali …,Zul…, Zahrain…, Hee… and finally the China Dolls lovers who had illicit SEX / Khalwat to campaign for BN!!!
Sure BN will get an absolute majority !!
And dont forget to include Gerakan K into Exco !!

Gerakan K

Oh my good, Devan !!!

you can read my mind already. Yes, please reserve a seat for me in the Exco. But there is no snap election in Perak. I have to wait next GE.

wira

I tend to think that the RM100 is very well received by the people of Penang because appreciation of the aged should be a practice set by the government as a good example for others to follow. Moreover, the money is from the results of CAT programs implemented by the State government where an honest and transparent government gave rise to a reasonable surplus over the past 2 years. It is far better to put money in the hands of our senior folks than to place them into the hands of some BN/UMNO cronies. If the federal government can give… Read more »

looes74

Wira,
Call it a Thank You Note. Or Penang Peoples’ Share. For all the sacrifices of older generations have made for us

Gerakan K

Bribery is the more correct term.

CAT again ??? There is CAT anymore ??? OK, if there is CAT, where the exco’s minutes regarding Kg Buah Pala demolition ???

O

Gerakan K. Apalah, you punya KPI Minister and Chairman of Gerakan Malaysia, cannot answer a simple question when asked, “Is he a Malaysian first, Chinese second”? He had to be warned by the Deputy Speaker from beating round the bush. Ai yoh, so embarassinglah. If he says, Malaysian first, he is against UMNO Baru, which we all know, he is very scared! If he says, he is Chinese first, he will be (criticised) by the Malays, Indians, Kadazans, Ibans, Muruts, Bidayoh and so on. If it is not real of the 1Malaysia slogan, then do not promote it, right? Never… Read more »

Yang

The most stupid are people like the MCA delegates who chose a tainted and sex scandal person… to be a President

Robert

I don’t know of any credible polling organizaton in Malaysia. Most of the time, the sample is too small and there is no scientific mechanism in their selection. Are they polling most likely voters or people who live there? How many % are BN friendly adn how many are PR friendly. Until we got a good feel of the base selection, the results are pretty much useless.

Once they get their polling result, they don’t have good statisticians to interpret the results. Another product of the Malaysian education system.

Sean

I’m hoping Anil will make an article of the promise by LGE (I just read it in TMI) to give all senior citizens RM1000 annually. I’ve been making a similar suggestion for years – only I think it should be a similar amount of money to ALL Malaysian adults. Suggesting that BN has more money is missing the point. BN by its very nature would NEVER choose to do the same thing. Malaysia’s problems are indivisible from BN’s problems: strangling the free flow of money and enterprise is how BN enriches itself and clings to power. For true reform, you… Read more »

looes74

Sean,
LGE’s RM1000 scheme to the poor is a copy from Singapore. In fact, it’s part of DAP alternative budget. To make all Malaysians the stakeholder of Malaysia. Of course, I always hope that LGE can embark on the ambitious HDB style programme just like those in Singapore.
It’s popular. Tell you what! If LGE’s state government got the guts & the money & run the public housing programme a big success, DAP just like its predecessor, PAP in Singapore, rule Penang in perpetuity.

Sean,
If only, hands can be lay on the EPF & not used for bailouts…..Hmm…..

1Malaysia

Go la, try election in Perak if BN media already so sure….test la. You think rakyat are stupid … kah? We know la, the BN media want to spin for support. This Zambry… Please ask him is he Malaysian 1st … Equal rights!!! We all belong to the same race, the HUMAN RACE!!!

zuan

never call a person stupid when he or she know things that you don’t… so Ong Eu Soon.. if you are so bright, why aren’t you the CM? just because you don’t agreed with Mr Lim’s policy, it doesn’t make him stupid…

if election is held now, bn will win as they will pour so much money to make it happen… if the election is Fair, don’t say Perak election, the bn will even lose the GE…

looes74

Zuan,
Ong Eu Soon can’t become a CM because he is no leader. Worst still, he’s no team player. He’s not even close to Tan Chee Koon, the fame oppositionist.
Worst thing is Ong Eu Soon didn’t stand for state assembly & yet still wanna complain. I suggest he stand in Air Putih against CM LGE in the next GE

Ong Eu Soon

We need a wake up call for Pakatan, especially Lim Guan Eng. Lim Guan Eng still continue to show his foolishness by playing up the RM100 aid scheme for senior citizens for cheap publicity. I wonder whether he realise or not that he has set a bad precedent for BN to follow. Don’t forget BN still control the federal government and all the public fund. What if BN decide to follow the foot step of Lim Guan Eng by throwing out our money as welfare handout to compete for supports? Does Lim Guan Eng has the financial resources to match?… Read more »

K

Ong

I concur. Penang has a proud tradition of CMs with high IQs and strong business acumen. However, the whole administration of LGE is a blight on Penang. He has neither the IQ nor the leadership qualities to be a good CM. More worringly, he has learnt the worse of BN’s excesses in terms of political patronage, populist policies and playing racial cards.

I am truly ashamed to be a Penangite.

If LGE is not removed as CM in the next election, Penang will never regain its prominence. It will … just turn into a backwater like Kelantan.

Yang

Penang was or was nearly turn into a backwater until DAP PR & LGE come along. Getting rid of zero kpi KTK & Gerakan was the best thing that has happened to Penang.

Iron

Penang has a proud tradition of CMs with high IQs

I beg to differ !

Penang had ONE intelligent Chief Minister, and his name is Tun Lim Chong Eu.

Other than Tun Lim, the others, sorry la, takde otak (Lim Guan Eng) atau otak sudah rosak (as in the case of that political eunuch).

O

Ah Soon, Your comments had become very personal of late against the CM. Whatever good points you want to put forward, are sadly overshadowed by the “hate” you have for the CM. What LGE did was the right thing with regards to caring after the senior citizens, regardless of race and political affiliations. And mind you, this exercise has serious implications on the future understandings of good governance and expectations of people of Penang. Infact, the Federal Government should implement a scheme whereby all senior citizens will have a minimum of RM200 credited into their accounts monthly for them to… Read more »

Yang

(Many) UMNO BN schemes even though it may be for the poor has gone into the pocket of UMNO cronies for the past 52 years. If LGE is stupid, at least his stupidity is sincere in that the RM100.00 has gone into the pockets of 82,000 senior citizen and not into the pockets of their cronies like UMNO & BN. Would you call that foolhardy. I don`t think so. At least he can stand up to the coalition partners like Zahrain and TTBeng unlike zero KPI KTK who is subservient to UMNO. He could not called himself a Malaysian first… Read more »

nkkhoo

Can Lim Guan Eng discloses how much FDI in Penang for 2009?

Handout to older people may not the ideal policy, but I think it’s still much better than full blanket subsidies for sugar, petrol, etc.

K

I kind of agree with Gerakan K on this. Why should Zambry or Najib call for a snap election when both the Sultan and the courts has legitimised the BN govt ? Even if there is a snap election is called, PR will never accept the result as long as they don’t get to form the govt by making all sorts of irrational accusations. Their thuggish behaviour in the Perak DUN is a reflection of their mentality where they think it is their birthright to rule the state. I am not sure about the cerdibility of the result of this… Read more »

Yang

Their thuggish behaviour is better than BN and Najib condoning corruption by enticing corruptible people into their fold to form a government

nkkhoo

Usually Malaysian TVs will censor any BN thuggish behavior in parliament or state assembly.

I’m quite disagree with the way PR aduns behave. They should just walk out after Perak Regent leaving the hall IF they do not recognize the BN speaker.

To deploy police personnel in the assembly is a gross violation of assembly power.

Ong Eu Soon

BN might as well hold the state election simultaneously with Sarawak state election, to split the man power and machineries of Pakatan. If BN really can win both state election then Pakatan’s road to Putrajaya will be a long winding road.

Penang People

The government is up to their sandiwara again. The Health Minister Liow is now free to play the lives of the Malaysian people again. They are distributing masks again and has promised the nation a press conference every Wednesday. They are going to hype up the H!N! again — i fear for the lives of innocent people who are going to be vaccinated….

Oxymoron

I think the Perak gomen is legal but that doesn’t make it right.

karma

A stupid survey that has no academic value. The sample is flawed. The number is not representative. This is not a survey at all. Why hoodwink the people who know nothing about research?

Tok Cik

Utter rubbish. Need I say again?

wira

From some of the polls results published, it seems Indians in this country are more supportive of Najib and BN than even the Malays.

I wonder if this is really true.
I also wonder what made them so satisfied that more than 30,000 of them took to the streets in KL in 2007?

Are the Indians really so much better off today than when Abdullah Badawi ruled the land?

Slim

Anil,

Have you read the latest Star report on hotel rooms at KKB ?

Are you planning to cover the election? If you are stuck for accommodation, e-mail me. There is room in my house, two miles from the town centre.

Slim.

Slim.

OK, let me know when you finally decide. The offer is also open to other SERIOUS bloggers who are covering the nomination day and elections too.

Please e-mail me and I shall send you full details of my place, streamyx connection and so on.

Slim.

donplaypuks

If they are that confident I dare them to petition PM Najib to hold fresh elections in Perak now.

Let the PEOPLE decide once and for all. Then we’ll know for sure whether their conclusions are misplaced are not!!

dpp
We are all of 1 race, the Human Race

NutzeyWagen

If BN really thinks so, then bring it on! Let’s have an election! That’s the only sure-fire way to find out, not through any polls being carried out, for it’s no real indicator. The ONLY real indicator of who have more support is through the ballot boxes. So bring it on! NOW! If they dare to at all.

BUBAR DUN PERAK!