BN holds edge; Pakatan builds momentum

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LIVE discussion on this blog tomorrow from 4.00pm to 5.00pm

A Pas grassroots source tells me that he feels the odds in Hulu Selangor are 46:54 in the BN’s favour, with a margin of error of plus/minus 2 per cent. (I asked him how come his instincts are so precise!)


Niz Aziz having dinner with Zaid Ibrahim tonight before hitting the ceramah circuit. They will attend a PKR Chinese dinner in Rasa at 9.30pm attended by 2,000 people. Nik Aziz will also be speaking at a DAP ceramah in Asam Kumbang and a PKR ceramah in Batang Kali – Photo courtesy of Fahmi Fadzil

Another Pas source, an MP, who has campaigned in Hulu Selangor, concedes that Felda areas are proving “difficult to penetrate”. All the top guns will be descending there in the next couple of days. Najib, for instance, has reportedly distributed RM50,000 each to 100 Felda settlers and promised more money. (How blatant can you get! – and this was aired over television news at 8.00pm.)

In the kampung areas, however, he says the word is that some BN supporters are not in favour of the MIC candidate: they feel that Umno should represent them instead. “There is even talk that Pakatan should be handed victory so that, the next time around, the BN candidate would be from Umno,” according to the Pas MP. “This gives us a bit of hope.”

Despite the BN holding the edge in the kampungs and plantations, the Pas MP says momentum for Pakatan in these outlying areas has been rising from an estimated 26 per cent support on nomination day to around 36 per cent now.

READ MORE:  Parliament couldn't get more finely balanced than this!

The Pakatan machinery in Hulu Selangor, however, had not been running at optimum level. Until recently, PKR had been heading the operations and “maybe they are not that experienced”.

Since then, Pas has stepped up a couple of gears from supporting the Pakatan machinery to playing a leading role in the campaign, according to the MP. “We have now mobilised 60-70 per cent of the Pas national machinery compared to 20-30 per cent earlier.’

If at all Pakatan wins, the MP expects the majority to be small, perhaps 500 to 1,000.

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eskay

I am into my prayer for Zaid, our country is badly in need of people like him. Thks to PR team & volunteers for the good effort.

HS voters pls wake up. Don’t be bought over by the goodies thrown by BN. It’s yr own money,not from their pocket, don’t be stupid & misled.

WAKE UP VOTERS, WAKE UP !!

L H TAN

Maybe the crowd yet to discount the supporter from outside Hulu Selangor n 60% standing / sitting is from other state based on PAS – mobilise 60%-70% machinery (my interpretation).
I like Zaid and hope he will win and in future replace DSAI and become the PM for Malaysian.

curious

With whatever surveys and remarks on who is garnering better support, I still predict that Datuk Zaid would win. It’s not that I love Datuk so much. The rakyats have awoken! It’s difficult to buy votes nowadays.

whispering9

Actually, I am not demoralised by Anil’s reporting. I find it factualistic and frank. It might demoralised some but for planners and statisticians, accurate and frank info, as such, is important. We shouldn’t need to be too overly buttered with motivation. Sometimes, a dose of pressimistism in a closely fought political race is important to extract the extra effort and cut the slack. A local remarked to me last night that Zaid can win…simply ‘cos he is a saudara. How is that for a DPM’s ‘I am Malay first. Malaysian second’. LOL. No offense intended. A definite edge for PR.

Iron

“We shouldn’t need to be too overly buttered with motivation. Sometimes, a dose of pressimistism in a closely fought political race is important to extract the extra effort and cut the slack.” True, very true. When my friend (Mr. A) who is in HS turun padang told me about only 25% support from the Indians, I was down. Then more bad news – they were not allowed to go into the estates – me more down. Then another friend – also turun padang in HS – from PAS told me the good news from the Malay area, there are a… Read more »

Bigjoe

Najib has basically thrown out his New Economic Model and endorsed rent-seekers with his vote buying. Come GE 13, all BN warlords (could) do the same and demand they be paid back TWICE over….

All the money spend will have be recooped or the market will tank. You can be sure of GST, RM1,000 traffic fine, higher toll, higher electricity, higher water rates, crony deals etc. What BN gives, it will taketh away later.

Vote BN, Vote Barang Naik.

Anthony Tan

When the two MPs in Perak was in PKR,they were investigated and prosecution has found there was a strong case to nailed them … by charging them in court. But when the two MPs jump ship, the prosecution seem to be weak during the court case. I think many of you who had followed the case would had smelt that they would not be found guilty as the proceeding was on its way as the prosecutors sounds and look such greenhorn in the law business. Don’t waste more taxpayers money if we are going to have such incompetent greenhorns in… Read more »

Osama

Sorry Anil,

TGNA was unable to speak last night in this ceramah raksasa as he was too weak and tired as he has just returned from Mecca.

But the crowd of about 15,000 gives you such a huge doze of confidence, especially to the demoralize readers of your blog.

Tamrin Ghafar was also present to give his support to PR! Zaid definitely in with a good chance!

http://msomelayu.blogspot.com/2010/04/letih-malam-hulu-selangor-8.html

For the benefits of our readers.

LAWAN TETAP LAWAN! PAS FOR ALL and SALAM REFORMASI!

Insyallah come April 25th the Rakyat of Hulu Selangor will vote Zaid Ibrahim to Parliament!

O

Hallo Anil! Your perisik tak boleh guna langsung! I had been dutifully posting the actual position for the benefits of our friends and readers here for the past six days. When we are down, we admit we are down, but how can we be down when we have 15,000 people attending the ceramah raksasa? They just refused to leave and they just want to hear Tok Guru Nik Aziz speaks. Anil, this is no spin ok, please see the pictures of the crowd in blogs tomorrow. Never before in the past six days of campaign have we seen such crowd.… Read more »

Iron

how can we be down when we have 15,000 people attending the ceramah raksasa?

Ever heard of “don’t count the chicken before they’re hatched” ?

Even if you got 150,000 people attending the ceramah super-duper raksasa doesn’t mean you will get 150,000 votes.

Some will vote for you. Some will not vote. Some will still vote for BN. And there are others – who are not voters for that district, wanna vote also kenot.

Din

Not this time. baby!

No need to wait for the fat lady. Game,set and match over. The floodgates are wide open, cash and promises pouring out by the millions….$$$$$$

O

OK Folks, I am leaving home tomorrow morning. Then on it will be all Anil’s. Anil’s incorrect report regarding BN’s overwhelming margin of lead, got me real down, in actuality, according to data received, as at 23/4 PR is leading BN 51.7% against 48.3%. This is a significant development as yesterday we were marginally down. The campaign strategy is absolutely great. Inview of the kind of undemocratic tactics, I am letting my mates to continue the work here, as I get out of this place before the jam starts again. Folks, we are all still in with a chance, infact… Read more »

Iron

My PAS friend’s figure is 45% support from the Malay votes, if they come out to vote !

According to my friend, a lot of older Malay folks are very very tired of the new UMNO – corruptions, arrogance, deceits, and so on – and if they go out to vote they will vote for the Pakatan.

Osama

… PR to lose because of the sway of Chinese votes to BN inthe last minute whirlwind tour of Chinese areas by PM.

Iron

PR to lose because of the sway of Chinese votes to BN inthe last minute whirlwind tour of Chinese areas by PM

If the Chinese are THAT stupid, sure la.

But please, do not underestimate the Chinese.

We still remember how our ancestors being described as “prostitute”

We still remember how we are told to be “better not greedy, or else …”

We still remember a lot of things, including the broken promises, the threats, the deceits, all from BN.

Dr. Pang HC

The Indian voters have regressed back to their pre-Hindraf mindset and will vote according to racial lines or anything BN or both.

Pakatan will lose Hulu Selangor in an embarrasing manner.

O

Huge successes at all Pakatan Rakyat ceramah, will it be able to turn the tide of the force of Ringgit? Really, this is the dirtiest by election I have ever witnessed. After such blatant act of arrogance, is there any thing we can do? There will be no clean and fair elections anymore.

aca

how to win when 13,000 votes (could) disappear? tks to you know who lah.

O

What is the actual cost to UMNO baru which the Rakyat will ultimately shoulder for this election? …

K

There is no harm indulging in wishful thinking, especially before the by-election. After that the Pakatan cheerleaders got to wake up from their delusion and sweet dreams to face the reality of a sinking battleship … abandoning it in droves. That Kamalanathan is going to win is a foregone conclussion, unless to those Pakatan fanboys and gals. In fact Kamalanathan going to win by a handsome margain, which will not only spell the doom of his political career but many others too. In fact this by election is the last straw that will break the Pakatan Camel’s back. Having Zaid… Read more »

kabusputih

Just read @ Sabahdaily.com, Zentren Studies, UM (headed by that talkative Associate Professor) had today released their study findgs on the Hulu S’gor BE giving PR 60% of the ‘pengundi terarah’ votes. Anybody can tell what is or who are ‘pengundi terarah’?

Despite this piece of gud news, all PR campaigners must continue to work hard until 8 a.m. 25th Apr 2010. Target: More Malay and Indian votes.

kkitsam

my feeling is that the chinese community is going to be landslide to Zaid, so it’s either our Indian & Malay brother & sister who is going to matter most. with the amount of $$$ pouring in, it’s really difficult, but i do hope they realized that it’s one in a lifetime chance, get the money and vote Zaid. The rest of the promises by Najib will only remains promises. Anyway, going again tomorrow for the final push!

O

Aneh, what is up?

Your live discussion from 6-7pm, then 11 am to noon and now 4-5pm.

You are flip flopping like Najib. Too excited with the happenings is it?

eskay

Saw the photos of those who cried over getting citizenship, obviously grateful to that fellow. Pity our ignorant Malaysians, by right we should … scold him for not managing the country properly. All this should be done long time ago in the daily routine work, why wait until there’s a by election ? If people keep electing BN, they are the victims of their own making. Whatever they want, wait lah until there’s an election. Come to think of it,the taxpayers are paying for the services they don’t get until there’s an election, and people are happy over this kind… Read more »

O

Aiyah Anil, The gap is not that big la. That was on nomination and now the gap has narrowed? And there is less than 30 hours to go, things are getting so frantic, it is difficult to keep tab now. They are attacking from all fronts, throwing goodies everywhere. Whoever wins, the plight of the Indians must be attended to on a war footing basis. No, it is not acceptable to see the living conditions of the Indians in Hulu Selangor. I had not seen those in my kampungs for at least two decades and I found them in Hulu… Read more »

kabusputih

The RM50K each for the 100 FELDA settlers is still in the offer stage; not yet accepted. Our advice is ‘accept but sign no document’. Told them details like what price, payment period, State Governmt approval to land transfer and conversion, etc have yet to be worked out. Chances are the RM5 million would be lost forever. But whose money anyway?

wandererAUS

It is amazing!! No fear to do the unlawful acts openly, in front of the TV!!…buying votes, splashing money freely treating the Hulu Selangor electorate like “beggars”. The best joke was, these UMNO scumbags (took) the money from the rakyat!
UMNO takes the cake when when it comes to deception and dishonorable acts…

Leong Yook Kong

Pakatan Rakyat, you are running a 100 meters race with only a few meters to go before you touch the finishing line. Go all out now in HS. Your next race will be in Sibu.

I appeal to all my brothers and sisters, who are voters in HS, to give their votes to Datuk Zaid Ibrahim of PKR (Black Eye). Based on his past sacrifices, we will see a better tomorrow. Vote and cross PKR for a better tomorrow.

zik

pls maintain focus to all segment of voters-malay,chinese, indian and orang asli..dont be satisfied with current percentage!!

Jong

Anil,

Expecting …-Stirrer to make his grand exit?