Half a million thronged Bersih 4 (updated)

Thousands of Malaysians sing national anthem #Negaraku to mark #Merdeka at #Bersih4 rally pic.twitter.com/IrjvkOhI6G

— Sumisha Naidu (@sumishanaidu) August 30, 2015

Update 3 (11pm, 1 September): The Bersih 2.0 Steering Committee’s estimate tallies with our prediction and estimate of 500,000.

Update 2 (1 September): Amazing! The massive sea of humanity at Dataran at the peak of the rally last night could have ranged from 300,000 to 400,000 (including the river of yellow at places like Jalan Tun Perak). Bear in mind that by 10pm, volunteers at Jalan Tun Perak were already carrying placards telling people heading to Dataran that the place was already full.

And so, contrary to expectations, the second day’s attendance was larger than the first day’s figure of over 250,000.

WE HAVE DONE IT!! 34 hours done! Thank you Malaysians. Selamat menyambut Merdeka! #Bersih4 @bersih2 pic.twitter.com/n37bToQIq1

— ariff.alyahya (@ariffalyahya77) August 30, 2015

If we eliminate half of the first day’s figure (being those who might have stayed on or returned for both days), the overall number of visitors for the entire 34-hour event should be approaching half a million, close to what I had predicted. (Remember, all these are just ball park figures). Syabas, Malaysians!

Update 1 (31 August): Another large turnout this Sunday morning. In Jalan Tun Perak alone, perhaps 50,000 people by 11.30am. This could double or triple later this afternoon. So if we add this figure to what we got yesterday (below) and assuming half of them are the same people who turned up ont the first day, I think we can safely estimate that the turnout for Bersih 4 surpasses 300,000.

Original post (30 August):

It is always difficult to estimate crowds of more than 100,000. But let’s try.

The consensus for the previous rally, Bersih 3, was that more than 200,000 people attended, with estimates ranging from 200,000 to 250,000.

Last night, when I met Aliran’s Sarajun Hoda, who is also the deputy chairman of the Bersih 2.0 Steering Committee, he told me this time the rally was larger, with the crowd stretching all the way down from Jalan Tun Perak to Pudu, much farther than the last time.

He could be right. From where I was yesterday evening along Jalan Tun Perak, I estimated the crowd at some 150,000.

Heady scenes along Jalan Tun Perak. pic.twitter.com/aiGO1KKJca

— Anil Netto (@anilnetto) August 29, 2015

But I couldn’t see how far the mass of humanity stretched along the road. At one intersection, you could barely wade through this sea of humanity.

The multitude roars thunderously, "NAJIB LETAK JAWATAN!" Can you hear the people's voice? pic.twitter.com/jUNskAS4M5

— Anil Netto (@anilnetto) August 29, 2015

A contact told me that when leaving the scene at about 5pm, she noticed that people were still arriving via LRT for the rally.

Another source told me that his friends at the scene estimated the crowd at 200,000.

Then I met a classmate last night, and he said his friends at the scene who had attended Bersih 3 concurred with what Sarajun had told me – that the attendance was larger than Bersih 3.

Now, if the Bersih 3 attendance was 200,000-250,000, I can conclude that the turnout this time was 250,000-300,000. This tallies nicely with Haris Ibrahim’s prediction when I bumped into him at Pasar Seni at the start of the rally: he said he was expecting some 300,000 to turn up.

My own earlier prediction of half a million did not materialise. Perhaps many were deterred by the dark hints of possible violence and trouble. Maybe tens of thousands were also intimidated by the last-minute announcement that Bersih 4 T-shirts would be banned as well as by the steady daily diet of warnings in the media in the run-up to the rally to deter Malaysians from attending. Why, 26 people were reportedly arrested last night allegedly for wearing Bersih 4 T-shirts.

Still, all said, Syabas to Malaysians for braving those scare tactics and turning up in record numbers for the Bersih 4 rally.

Hidup, Hidup! Hidup, Bersih!

What do you think? What’s your estimate of the turnout?

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