Update: Postal votes could be crucial in Bagan Pinang. According to the chart here, Pusasda (Pusat Latihan Asas Tentera Darat) Kem Si Rusa falls under this state assembly seat with close to 2,000 postal voters. In March last year, Harakah reported an alleged irregularity involving a Bagan Pinang postal voter here.
Bagan Pinang Adun Azman Md Noor (BN) passed away in Seremban, according to a tweet from Khairykj.
In the 2008 general election, the first-term assembly member won the seat with a 2,333-vote majority over his Pas rival, winning by a 6,430-4,097 margin.
That was a drop from the 4,411 BN majority in the 2004 general election.
It falls under the Teluk Kemang parliamentary seat held by PKR.
For the second time in eight by-elections (including Bagan Pinang) in the peninsula since the 2008 general election, a by-election will be held in a BN seat. Pas had overturned a 628-vote BN majority in the Kuala Terengganu parliamentary seat to win the seat by 2,631 votes in a by-election held in January.
So will it be 8-1 or 7-2 after this by-election?
Wrong. Kuala Trengganu was a BN seat when Razali, the MP and Deputy Minister passed away.
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Well spotted. Thanks for the correction.
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There’s a sizable 22% Indians there. If Hindraf splits the Indian vote by fielding an independent and results in BN retaining the seat, a lot of people will not forgive the two brothers. What’s the use if you cannot win but can only be a spoiler for PR and help BN win? I hope Uthaya and Waytha can show some… sense.
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Wo… God must be testing the UMNO PM, so many deaths among the ADUNs and so many by-(or is it buy??)- election.
Anyway, it’s good to keep up the democracy spirit among the apathetic Malaysians. Way to go, hopefully PAS field a good man. Another win for PAS is another win for the Rakyat!!!
Takbir!!!
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Bro anilnetto.
I will be voting in Bagan Pinang by-election, again !!!!. Umno stronghold, but nothing is impossible. There are about 5000 postal votes in this area. Almost impossible to win unless BERSIH pushes further the agenda to do away with postal vote. Haji Ramli, PAS candidate were leading on civilian votes until postal vote came in, and swipe away the winning votes by 2333 votes. Bloggers participation on the ground, especially on postal votes, is key success factor here. Let’s camp closer to the army camp, bring on a simple Amelina and Mas Idayu concertat, you surely will win some of the votes !!!!. Or if you guys play golf, bring on an Amal Golf, invites the army keys, you may get some more votes. Bloggers vs Perwiraku. By the way, ex-DUN, YB Azman, who passed away today, is no so popular here. Infact, many don’t know who he is and where about. Many personal gossips on this guy, but no need to say lah. Heard that Umno is fielding either Tun Hairudin (people call him Don around here), a very quite businessman, or someone by the name Din also (but people call him Kadok around here). If they Umno field Kadok, many can stand on the podium and give long ceramah about him… By the way, in Bagan Pinang, people say, Umno put (a useless candidate) also they win.Good luck PAS, good luck Haji Ramli. My vote and my wife’s vote will already be for you.
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14,000 total voters
Just over 10 per cent of voters are Chinese while Indians make up an unusually high percentage at 19.9 per cent.
Assuming 30%/70% for non-Malay/Malay constituents:
PAS will likely get 75% or 3,150 of the non-Malay votes with TBH and cow-head issues.
To win, it needs only 3,851 or 39.30% of the Malay votes. It looks good that Pakatan Rakyat will wrestle this seat from Barisan Nasional.
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anil
any news from kbp. feel sad that this episode happen. anything up from lge to help the residents.
whatever damages done by the previous ksk government is for the lge to solve for the rakyat. ya the residents are stubborn not to leave but the unity show by them make my heart was with them.
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We need more of these by elections currently hold by BN.
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This will be a good indication which direction and how forceful, the wind is blowing.
Equally, the water (ang pow) is also, be flowing with greater volume and speed…those lucky voters in Bagan Pinang!
UMNO PM cannot afford to see this one going to PAKATAN…8Pakatan : 1BN?????
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Of course, the scoreboard will read as 8 – 1 in favour of PR. In Peninsula Malaysia, it will be 8 – 0.
Muhyiddin and Khairy, what is BN’s plan for this by-election? Your “London Bridge” and “Golden Child” had failed you completely. What next?
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Dear frens,
This by election will be a test, in fact several tests. Since it will tell what the wind blows for BN or PAKATAN. The Indian votes will play crucials kingmaker while the Malay votes probably split or a little migrate to BN since UMNO playing racials(probably the main instigators) of “perceived” lost of Malay rights etc. For the Chinese, I presume still favour DAP due national issue of Teoh Beng Hock case. The recent High Chaparral “fiasco” will be the test of Indians mood and how they perceived Pakatan with DAP leaders handle it which I personally believe damage the reputation of Pakatan government of not doing 101% for them. For this fight, I reckon BN have more % to retain the seat if they don’t do anything stupid like Rohaizat fiasco and ride on some of the negative sentiments of the Indians against Pakatan government. Let see….what issue each side will use for the campaign….somebody has to make a move and reveal the weakness for attack. What would Sun Tzu strategy be use this time? Which issue will be the focal ground of battle??? What Malay topic be use to lure the Malay voters? For Indian obviously High Chaparral. Chinese difficult to moved at this moment? Others NGOs interest topic? Let the BATTLE BEGIN!!
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COWaBagan!! It is pay back time in Bagan Pinang @ Negri Sembilan!
I hope BN will not blame cow-head protestors after the announce the result of Bagan Pinang’s BUY-Election.
Of the 14,192 registered voters here, 19.9% are Indians voters ~ 2,700 voters
Looks like the cow didn’t die in vain after all!
God is great!
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This Toyo guy head is full of…. To call the cow a ‘stupid animal’ is just uncalled for. I think UMNO youth should sue him for degrading the cow which provided milk which is consume by most human including almost all UMNO members…..remember the Teresa Kok egg incident?????
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Good news! Malaysiakini reports that all the Kg. Buah Pala villagers have accepted the double storey terrace house offer to be built on part of the KBP land. So don’t say LGE let them down, he has gotten the best deal for them which they should have accepted without all the sandiwara if not for that (paid?) BN… whose name begins with S. I hope KBP is no longer an issue against PR. The issue was that the villagers were misled by political opportunists and a (paid?) BN….
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If the 19.9% Indians (of whom almost all should be Hindus) can accept the spitting and stomping of the cow’s head and the abuses hurled against the building of the temple by UMNO (supporters), then where is your dignity?
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I think one of the many reasons why there are many by-election this year due divine intervention.
Maybe PR is destined to take over as federal government on next GE.
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According to http://malvu.blogspot.com,
N31 Bagan Pinang seat has 4822 postal voters with 14,192 registered voters.
BN will retain this seat.
Sorry out of topic here, DUN Pangkor has 11,221 postal votes!! OMG!
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Many Malays in Southern Peninsula are hardcore supporters BN compared to Malays at other parts of peninsula. I guess BN will sing all the way to victory this time.
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Like I say, careful studies must be done. If win is not possible, perhaps we should try giving UMNO the winner’s curse. Short of phyrric victory, winner’s curse would confuse UMNO game plan
Give UMNO seemingly easy victory by placing a DAP candidate there. Better still put a chinese. Lets see if UMNO would be brought under the winner’s curse
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A BN victory is on the card. It is difficult to fight when there is something like 5,000 postal votes.
It is not going to be a fair fight. Even if 70% of the Chinese and Indians voted for PR, which I am sure they will, it will still be difficult for PR to win this seat.
You know what the BN is capable of, anything to win this seat! Looks an uphill battle but nevertheless, to reduce their majority is the only aim the PR can do and to win is a jackpot!
Let us look at what the BN will harp like, in the event they really win this seat, even with a reduced majority.
So, all Malaysians, 1 Malaysia and let us vote with one heart, PR the real one Malaysia deal!
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Is it true there are more than 4000 postal votes and that UMNO took 2/3 last time out? That would mean a lead in the civilian votes for PR.
If they can maintain this winning streak, I have no doubt UMNO will resort to desperate measures to win – (questionable) of course. I expect nothing less, neither should PR.
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Not necessary that a bn win is a loss of pas. We cannot
expect a swing to pas overnight. A reduced percentage vote count for bn is considered a good sign for the opposition.
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…. must win this by election for Pakatan. Period. UMNO/BN make me sick.
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I think the Cow Head incident will be in favor of Pakatan. The Kg Buah Pala issue will be 50-50 depending on who and how powerful the spin is. The other key issue is the 2,000 odd postal votes from the army camp…. hope MAFREL can help monitor the postal votes. This is still a touch and go by election… both sides have equal chance in my opinion.
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UMNO in N.S. is not as united as the projected image.
1. UMNO people dont like the MB. He was parachuted in by Badawi. People still have bad taste in the mouth
2. UMNO people in N.S. dont like Khairy. N.S. is considered Khairy territory.
This 2 counts will probable see internal sabotage.
These considerations plus the Indian and Chinese pro opposition stance will give BN a run for the money.
A reduction in majority will cause a big moral problem for UMNO.
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