May 182009
Well, apart from the obvious answer, allow me to suggest a few possible reasons:
- After what happened in Perak, Umno and the BN are not in the mood for elections anywhere. If they were to contest, they could be in for a drubbing after what they have done in Perak.
- Even if Najib’s Perak adventure had not occurred, it is unlikely that Umno could win in Penanti given the erosion in support for the BN since the last general election (even though Malay support for the party may have increased).
- The number four is bad luck for the Chinese! If Umno contests and loses Penanti, that would be its fourth straight by-election defeat since the last general election – a thoroughly demoralising prospect for its leaders and supporters.
- Umno wouldn’t want another local “referendum” on Najib’s leadership. If BN contests and loses, it would be Najib’s third by-election loss in two months since becoming PM and the BN’s fifth defeat since 8 March 2008.
- Penanti falls in Anwar’s stronghold of Permatang Pauh and PKR has some spirited, highly motivated campaigners in the area.
- Pakatan has taught voters to take what’s offered but vote for Pakatan, so the BN’s big money projects and promises won’t be of much help to Umno’s cause.
- Umno is not confident that the MCA and MIC can draw in the Chinese and Indian voters, who together make up a quarter of the electorate in Penanti. The tide has turned against both these minority parties. These days, it is largely Umno vs Pakatan.
- Umno doesn’t want to be seen to be succumbing to Mahathir’s wish for it to contest in Penanti.
- More workers are feeling the pain of the recession and that could spell trouble for the BN.
That leaves the coast clear for Pakatan’s Mansor Othman to romp home.
But wait, Parti Rakyat Malaysia (PRM) has indicated it could field a candidate. It is also possible that the BN could back an independent candidate to test the waters without the coalition ‘losing face’ if he or she loses. Other independents could jump into the fray.
Either way, the BN’s decision has created history: I can’t remember a time when the BN has declined to contest a by-election. And that says a lot for the ruling coalition’s confidence – or rather lack of it – in facing the rakyat today.
dia takotttt….
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Dear Anil,
Thanks for the possibilities. BTW, me and my friends must thank you for all the troubles you took to give us Anak Bangsa Malaysia latest updates on whats going on at every by-elections, Perak SUK Building ruckus and many more. May God bless you always.
Dear Fi-sha, you are most welcome. Thanks for dropping by. – Anil
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Well I hope PR won’t take the by-election lightly, they may be just playing some tricks, with mamathir as the mastermind, we can never under-estimate them.
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Najib tidak seberani Pak Lah walau pun Pak La lembik. Tapi sebenarnya apa yg ditakuti adalah serangan2 daripada barisan pejuang2 petugas Keadilan yg dikira paling berani di Permatang Pauh. Apa lagi isu2 seperti Atantuya dan krisis d Perak akan terus menjadi isu hangat yg terus memeningkan Umno-BN untuk mnjawab segala2 serangan peluru drpd parti Keadilan. Tak sabar juga menanti komen dr Che Det…panas..
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Anil,
From my checking;
BN & Alliance have never in the history of the country declined to contest any seat in an election or by-election.
There have been rare cases of BN not being on the actual ballot on election day. This happened when the BN candidate was disqualified on nomination day due to valid objections being successfully raised.
I never managed to find out what was the fate of the subsequent career of that fearless returning officer…..kakakakakaka..
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I had predicted that BeEnd would not dare to contest in Penanti so I bet heavily with all my life savings on my prediction. I won. Pakatan Rakyat also won. Hahahahahahaaaaaa………….
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Let me offer my thoughts of why UMNO/BN has decided not to contest.
Every election for the UMNO/BN they have relied on Money, Media and Machinery to win elections. I think money is the most important resource for UMNO/BN.
I think they now have a money problem. Short of money from supporters and cronies that is. With 5 states under PR control they (could be having) difficulties in getting money from state coffers to fund this election. Furthermore Penang is now under PR so no way they can find ways to get Penang State funds to fund Penanti.
Secondly, after loosing by-elections so often in Peninsula Malaysia, their cronies billionaires and indebted govt contract benefactors (could be) finding it difficult to keep on funding UMNO/BN campaigns as the returns are not be there. The global recession is also not helping as there is no way to try to allegedly manipulate the stock market to (make) money from gullible retails investors? More draws for four digit and other lotteries perhaps? Hmmm.. maybe, but why bother if you keep loosing in the elections. Increase price of petrol and (perhaps use some of the money) for elections? Maybe also.
So there you have it. They can’t get the money fellas!
So…they won’t compete in Penanti.
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We (Penantians in KL) will still go back home and vote for PKR. FOR SURE!
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Congratulation Datuk Najib. You did not loose this current buy-election. Syabas…well done. Hip..hip..hure’
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At least this time they are not that stupid.
It’s better to run with its tail between its legs rather than be slaughtered (during polling)!!
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Hi Anil. U sure if BN loses Penanti it would be their 4th? Isn’t they loss already Permatang Pauh, Kuala Trengganu & the 2 Bukits recently right? So this would be their number 5…TAKBIR! x 10
Penanti would be the 6th by-election. It would be Umno’s 4th defeat (P Pauh, KT, Bkt Gantang, and Penanti, if they contest and lose there) and the BN’s 5th loss. (The MIC lost in Bukit Selambau). The BN won in Batang Ai. – Anil
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We have a flashy PM who was willing to (take over Perak with the help of 3 frogs) but, afraid of a beating, willingly concede to PR the seat of Penanti..hahaha! What a change…from a charging … into a UMNO eunuch!
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Bro Anil
This might be a trick.Later they fill an indipendant candidate to contest.Or otherwise many other candidate will come forward to contest.They know , if by any chance they win the seat ,either they can join pakatan and made an exco or …. they know they can became instant millionaire just like the three frogs in Perak.All Malaysian knows umno bee end very rich an capable …. Then the Bee End will say that the indipendant win because of their support and no reward offered to join Bee End. And if Pakatan win uncontested they will say , it has been already told by tainted PM……Waste of tax money.
What say bro.Am i right?
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I guess it’s cheaper to buy some elected state assemblyman than spending so many millions on a lost cause. Further, as you noted, there’s also the need for Najib to assert his independence from the Tun. On the other hand, it could simply mean that BN has decided to fight differently – very much a Sun Tzu mentality!
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So the current score board reads BN 1, PR 4. 1-4 for a 50years old “strong” ruling party on the “must-win” by-elections. The have the media, enforcement department & local authorities within their grab but still 1-4? If Bukit Selambau which BN contested has a record breaking 15 Bebas candidates, how bout this time? We can start calling the Guinness Book of World Record representative now to Malaysia Bolehland.
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Ampoi barisan/umno now only think don`t like waste puplic money..pi lah..!! If you think like that way you waste in perak..!! Kata la nak kalah kot..!! To barisan/umno if you go any election you are will lose..!!Now most of malaysian know dirty politics barisan/umno..!! Next general election you all bye..bye bang ooi!!
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His fengshui master said so?
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What a come-down from the past where BN attitude is, “Bring it on and we’ll kick your a.. with our money and our mighty machineries”.
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There will be a BN independent who will contest. Najib cannot afford to have people doubt that Penanti is a bad decision when he can’t get popular vote back for BN. His leadership will be in questioned…
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Careful of the “Trojan Horse” being used before…!!!
I don’t believe that its got anything to do with ‘tax payers money’. There’s plenty of rakyat’s money…!
There’s plenty of time to do a famous “flip-flop” you know….!!!
What about “The Art of War”………….??????
Hmmmmm……………………………………………….!
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UMNO can raise a million flags, hand out thousands of green packets backed by it’s well oiled machinery and resources but that doesn’t make a difference as they will still be humiliated and handed a thrashing in Penanti by PR should they decide to contest.
We must understand that the Malays are not the Malays that could be easily duped into believing UMNO’s ketuanan spin or that they will lead better lives under them. BN had gone to the ground much earlier than we think and they have discovered to their horror that Malay support for them is minimal and almost non-existent among the other races.
As for the other ex-PKR lady who has earlier entered her candidacy, a PR leader quipped that not only will she lose her deposit but her sarong as well!!
PR is already gearing itself for the big battle looming in Perak as BN is almost ready to give in to PR’s demand for a new state election. This has reached Najib’s ears and he knows that he can ignore it to his own peril.
Penanti was a foregone conclusion from the start!
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Bro Zamri. That’s the spirit. Get all your Penanti friends to go back and vote for PKR.Dont take this by-election lightly. let this Penanti By-election be a referendum aginst BN blatant and wide spread abuse of power. Let this By-election be a vote in support of DSAI for the cruel and inhuman jail term and body blows inflicted on him just because he dare to go against and fight umno=bn. BN as you know is coward and they will surely use an independant to fight their cause.
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They say they don’t want to dance to the tune of PR.
Bottom line is they don’t want to lose again.
If they thought they could win, don’t you think they would do anything within their means to snatch the seat.
I think, it’s more difficult now for PR with PKR vs Independent. BN supporters will vote for the Ind. candidate and so will fence-sitters. It should be close. Perhaps the highest ever garnered by an Independent
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UMNO’s move is predictable..they will support or field an independant later.
Anyway..too bad, if not Penanti will flourish again with bustling of business, inflow of funds etc.
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Perak is like gangrene to BN. If BN does not cut it away, it may spread rapidly in 3-4 years time. By that time, it will probably be replaced by a totally new body(read Pakatan Raykat).
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