Before this general election, for the BN to lose power, I felt it would have to suffer a large plunge in its share of the popular vote of around 10 percentage points.
The share of votes for the opposition would have to rise from just over 50% to touch around 60%. Looked at another way, the BN’s share of the popular vote would need to dip from below 50% to below 40%. Either way, it would mean the BN would have to suffer a plunge of around 10 percentage points in its share of the popular vote. It was that simple.
Looking at the trend from 1995 general election to the 1999 election when the BN share plunged by 8 percentage points and then the trend from 2004 to 2008, when the BN share plunged by 12 percentage points, I felt that a 10% drop was always going to be possible, given the host of issues in this election (GST, higher cost of living, 1MDB and Felda corruption scandals) plus of course the Mahathir factor.
And sure enough, the BN’s share of the vote plunged from 47.4% to 36.4%, a drop of 11%.
In terms of the percentage share of popular votes (based on Malay Mail figures):
%
47.3 – PH
2.2 – Warisan
0.4 – Batu independent
—-
49.9 Total PH and allies
13.7 – Pas, Star and other independents
—-
63.6 – Total opposition popular vote
36.4 – BN
—-
100.0 – Total popular vote share
—-
The thing is, BN’s plus Pas’ share of the popular vote would be close to 50%, so there could be some thinking about formalising their alliance in the north and the east.
Meanwhile, we will watch what happens in Kedah and Perak, where the situation is not so straightforward – somewhat hung.
All I can say, is that the people of Malaysia made it all this possible. Congratulations!
| Please help to support this blog if you can. Read the commenting guidlelines for this blog. |
Najib said BN lost on ‘perception’.
Clearly BN could not face the reality.
Also where were Liow, Mah and Subra when Najib ‘surrendered’ at 11.15am on May 10?
Karma has its way of dealing with humans.
You do good, you get the blessings.
You commit evil, you ask for it.
Karma also teaches us to be patient as good will come eventually.
Like 509 Victory (for all) after a long wait since the 60s.
Muslims will now take notice of the concept of Karma.
PAS overall got quite decent number of votes, mostly from rural folks feeding on spiritual politics. So there is now a political divide by the Titiwangsa range separating the west and east peninsular. How to integrate the Malay Muslim community will very much depend on how Jakim, assuming still kept relevant, will function under Harapan. Important not out-Islamic PAS but to bring senses to the fold, by re-examine the present Islamic programmes on TV that has high influence on the Muslim mindset. Do not glorify the past Islamic civilisation, but focus on how Islam can fit into the modern day… Read more »
The suicide bombings at three churches by an extremist family in Surabaya killed 13 people and wounded another 41.
https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/asia/surabaya-attack-teen-suicide-bomber-seen-crying-inconsolably-10244778
Time for Tony Fernandes to hold press conference to apologize like Stanly Supermax?
36% of a total of 222 works out to be 79.9 representation exactly what BN received, looks like najib gerrymandering not working.
With 36% BN should have 2/3 majority when according to the dumbest political experts that BN could rule with 16% votes.
Felt like an evil empire have just ended. Thus this year’s Merdeka-Day is truly meaningful. Umno is defeated but not totally out. They still have the money to do something or launch a havoc. As for MCA , PPP and their remnants.They too saw it coming but did not expect such huge destruction. As mentioned few years ago, MCA could have been more successful operating as Mahjong Club or Karaoke business. Harapan group must not follow the path of BN. Read that Rayer wants TV3 to be shut down. That is the wrong thing to do. We are not Talibans.… Read more »
According to official fake news, someone just transported “RM10million in luxury handbags” in a govt. van to a luxury condo. Maybe they can have a lelong (sale).
Malaysia soon to have a new tourist attraction of First Lady handbag + pink diamond museum, just like Philippines First Lady shoes museum?
What would happen to MCA, Gerakan and MIC if Umno to align with PAS to be fully Malay-Muslim party?
Possible since PAS has bigger followings, but Umno could also lose support in Sarawak. Anyway MCA, Gerakan and MIC are joining MyPPP into oblivion. PSM should opearate as NGO.
More likely to see Umno (assuming still legal) ousting Najib.
Najib is now a liability to UMNO in terms of reputation, criminal investigations & possibly jail sentences (multiple?). Too many baggages.
And those who previously warmed up to him in droves are now trying to get rid of him. That’s the price of playing Cash Is King. When the kangtao is coming to an end, the flies will flee. It’s all about personal greed for money + power where ‘dirts’ are sold + preached as wholesome exemplary ethics.
Perhaps, the PAS bigots can save him from damnation! Or just flee like the flies.
No Money, No Talk, No Support!
PSM has little support. This is indicated by Dr Jeyakumar’s shockingly low vote count in GE14. Our PSM comrades (coming from me as a non-Marxist, Social Democrat fellow traveller) should drop its radical rhetoric, give up its Leninist inclinations (“democratic centralism”, “vanguard party”) and work harder to attract middle class votes. As it is, they can hardly attract sufficient numbers of votes from proletarians – whom they claim to represent. PSM should study how the Marxist parties in West Bengal, Kerala and Nepal manage to attract so much political support. Oh yes, they should also muzzle their far left guys… Read more »
PSM could not join Harapan as its leftist idealism could not accommodate Mahathir. Otherwise it could have replace MIC as the fifth major member of Harapan, to represent the Indian community. Opportunity lost.
PSM has learnt that sometimes one must take a step back in order to move two steps forward.
PSM was ill-advised by NGOs?
I believe all their candidates lose their GE deposit.
A hard lesson for them.
Wonder what is the next option for MCA and Gerakan now that the chinese community has deserted them?
Both MCA and Gerakan should officially leave BN (before it is sunk). Never entertain the thought of merging with Umno as a multi-racial party since the corrupted DNA would still be there.
Frankly, I see no future for MCA, MIC, Gerakan and Umno. End of the road.
Don’t take these figures too seriously. The recent EC delays, with no lucid explanation, should tell you a lot. There also seems to be a follow-up attempt to spread disinformation on when EC announced the results: 3:45 am, 2: 25 pm, 3:35 pm, etc. In this day and age, it is no big deal for each polling station to post its results online with a date stamp. Also note that the reports on people caught outside polling stations with ballot papers or boxes are never clear – as if those reporting are fearful – and no one has ever been… Read more »
Wow. I thought it would drop to 40% at GE14
I hope that in the near future, the right-wing vote (racists, fascists, greedy rich, religious extremists) would drop to not more than 20-25%
The ordinary people of Malaysia need more political education from the intellectuals and civil society activists.
Cheers, Mr Anil.
Yes, good point, Kai Lit. We need to raise political and social awareness in the country like you said.
Slowly one by one the BN candidates who won are abandoning ship & I hope PH will accept them with conditions that no money change hand & they pledge loyalty to the coalition unconditionally. God bless the people of Malaysia
Zero.
I hope they got only 20%