Tougher days ahead for BN, Pakatan

Tougher days ahead for BN, Pakatan

Something I wrote on the Hulu Selangor by-election for IPS.

Tougher Days Ahead for Ruling Coalition, Opposition
Analysis by Anil Netto

A closely contested by-election over the weekend, which saw victory for the ruling coalition, shows that the political terrain in multi-ethnic Malaysia remains divided and raises searching questions for the opposing sides.

The by-election for a seat in the Federal Parliament took place in an ethnically mixed area – Hulu Selangor, a district in central Selangor state that is fairly similar in composition to the overall population of the Malaysian peninsula.

Selangor is considered the richest state in this South-east Asian country, where 60 percent of the 28 million population consists of Muslims. Full story here.

17 COMMENTS

  1. A very healthy scenario for all Malaysians. It’s a strong PR and a strong BN. Let the people choose the BEST. Deliver, or we will throw you out! No ‘post’ is for keep in politics. Stop corruption, cronyism, wastage of taxpayers’ money, mediocrity, cheating and the abuse of power. The people are the eyes and ears. Soon even the rural folk will know what’s happening to the country. They cannot be bought anymore with cash and kind. The educated are already aware of the dilemma we are facing.The future of our children and grandchildren cannot be abused by some selfish leaders of today.

     
  2. Sewel packing his bag and heading off to Sibu.

    I am confident that as long as there is blatant sponsored discrimination against the non-Malay Malaysian citizens who make up over 30% of the population, rabid corruption in the current Government in Malaysia, a (corruption-prone) and trigger-happy police plus a justice system controlled by the executive of the country then i am confident Pakatan Rakyat will always get strong votes.

    Can I also thank Perkasa, Dr. Mahatir and et al. in their recent statements that will help DAP in getting strong votes.

     
  3. Dear Iron 5:56 pm

    Yes, you are right.

    Tough days are ahead for the ordinary rakyat.
    Worsening performance of the Malaysian economy.

    High rate of inflation for one thing — buy-elections
    and cross-overs from PR to BN getting more and more expensive, so the regime has to throw money around more and more.
    Cutbacks in expenditure on public services — otherwise, how to get extra money for the
    buy-elections and cross-overs?
    Worsening ICOR (incremental capital-output ratio)–
    more and more spending on megaprojects with decreasing returns because of “leakages” etc

    Petronas forced to cough up more money for the ruling regime? Raids on the EPF funds?

     
  4. Anil

    I like and respect you as you are one of the endangered species of the Malaysian political ecosystem – nuetral commentator.

    However, sometimes you have the tendency to veer off from your balanced perspective, not due to bias but perhaps a momentary lapse of perspective.This is such instance.

    I don’t disagree with your analysis regarding the polarised voting pattern.

    However, if Pakatan had won HS, noone would be talking about such issues but would be busy preparing obituiry for BN and declaring how Najib’s reforms have been rejected by rakyat.

    How come such analysis was not done before when Pakatan won, when the same pattern was clear (Perak, Kedah, etc) ?
    This is nothing new and has been the pattern even in the GE (when the majority Indian also sided with PR).

    I agree that as a Malaysian, such voting pattern (not just in HS) is worrisome. But part of the problem is not BN/UMNO’s racial positioning but Pakatan been heavily courting the non Malays in almost every issue. The comical statements from Nik Aziz in the defence of almost every wrongs of Pakatan and its leaders is a clear sign of this.

    I don’t think BN is unaware of the unhappiness of the non Malay populace. Najib has been working on creating a fairer playing field right from his Day 1 as the PM. In fact the way he managed to win the Indian support back to BN is clearly shows that he has been successful.

    It is a matter of time the Chinese too will be back to BN.Najib is no fool and he will focus his effort to win the over, sooner or later. And there is nothing that Pakatan can do to stop that.

    Pakatan has missed the golden window and now they can only go down and down.

     
    • Najib is playing divide & rule. For this race/community, he’ll say 1Malaysia. For another race/community, he’ll say defend ketuanan. Then his minions will say something even more right wing. Lets not even get into what his deputy says & do. It’s directly opposite of the boss.

      Then you have PERKASA, the unofficial militant right wing ketuanan upholder. Though not officially link to ruling party, it has the unofficial blessing for upholding the ketuanan principle.

      As usual, the civil service will do what it pleases. Each little Napoleon will carry out the ketuanan agenda to the hilt. We are at their mercy according to the whim & fancy of the day.

      Such divide & rule has worked since the colonial days & UMNO is now the master at this strategy.

       
  5. It looks like there is not going to be free lunches for BN ever. They are seriously threatened with the results of the Hulu Selangor byelection.

    They wanted to thrash Zaid and DSAI real bad! They were hoping for a repeat of the majority that they secured before the debacle of March 2008, that was a 14,000+ majority. Despite all the goodies and election promises, they were able to only retain the seat by a slim majority of 1,725 votes.

    This is a good sign for democracy as it will put both the BN and Pakatan on the alert always and for those who had not govern well, they please pull up their socks. It is a clear warning signs by the Rakyat of what they expect from their leaders. No more blind support for either.

    The sad thing about this by election, really is the amount of disputes and alleged frauds. Voters who (allegedly) are disappointed with the way they were denied their rights to vote, by being offered monetary incentives, unable to find their voting stations, and finding someone else had voted on their behalf, are reportedly filing their reports tomorrow at KKB police station, after meeting with the Selangor Police Chief today. And the numbers are in the hundreds as reported in Free Malaysia Today.

    It showed that voters today are not to be taken for a ride, cannot be subdued by freebies and threats, and they know their rights. This is good for democracy and UMNO Baru/BN really cannot be proud of their slim win. Not being bias or against UMNO Baru/BN, but, after spending the amount of monies and the vicious campaignings, these should not have happened.

    And the alleged reporting that the voting slips outnumbered the voters turnout, either there had been calculating errors or something sinister is happening, which we hope is not the case.

    It will be tough for both Pakatan and BN, as the numbers of voters who came out in support are very strong for both sides.

    The current … bashing by Mahathir and Perkasa will further alienate the Chinese and will make them more eager than ever to vote in the PR Government. The UMNO leaders here look very sore losers with the loss of the Chinese votes. They claimed they are winning back the Indian votes, but, actually, how many Indians voted that day, and how many did not return to vote on April 25th? One thing very clear, Hindraf is irrelevant and Kalamanathan is correct! The Chinese and Indians are just practising their rights, and there is absolutely nothing wrong when they opted for other Malay leaders to lead them and these leaders came from PAS and the PKR. They just do not want to be led by UMNO Baru.

    Surprisingly BN did not secure overwhelming support from FELDA areas, and key Malay areas like Hulu Bernam. Combined, UMNO only managed to secure a couple of hundreds of extra votes compared to 2008, in these two Malay majority areas, their winnings came from the state constituencies of KKB and Batang Kali.

    Not wanting to comment further as Gerakan K will come out fuming and saying that I am also a sore loser. But, just to be factually clear about the HS by election, the issues after the by election and its possible implications for future elections!

    Cheers Gerakan K.

     
    • O,

      let’s look at Zaid. He belongs to upper class (with arrogant look) and to let him contest in semi-rural area was big mistake.

      On the other hand, please look at Kamal. A humble, soft spoken and nice person. Just like my good neighbours.

       
      • As if your masters from UMNO does not have the arrogant look.

        The most… is Nazri. Even your PM has a look that’s not so approachable…). Your PM grew up a rich man (yau chin chai). Zaid is a self made man. There is a vast diff between the two.

         
  6. You know, Anil, sometimes when I reflect back on the issue of Racial Discrimination I can’t help but to remember my dear friend, the late M.G.G. Pillai.

    Read this article he wrote, Anil: http://web.archive.org/web/20040630090607/http://www.mggpillai.com/article.php3?sid=1360

    Yes, he was talking about Badawi, the guy who supposingly is the “more moderate” type.

    And in the same vein, read this letter from a girl originating from Penang — http://web.archive.org/web/20070811163403/http://www.malaysiakini.com/letters/28053

    Her experience isn’t that different from mine – and many other non-Malays who study abroad.

    While she worked as a Janitor, I worked as a construction worker building sky-scrappers….

    The HS election had me thinking a lot. Although I am not a member of PR, I too feel betrayed by the Indians there.

    So many of us have suffered so much and still they vote for the racist BN regime.

     
  7. Aiya, Anil !

    Real tougher days ahead are reserved for the Rakyat la !

    Them YB in BN and PR are all with big pockets, big house, big cars, can even go shopping in Paris.

    No tough days for them la.

    For the Rakyat, days are getting tougher and tougher.

     
  8. Beside using money, Najib is using every devious scheme … available to uproot Anwar and PKR. Before the buy election, there were a lot of cross over from PKR. Why is it that there are no more such crossover now. It shows that these despicable frogs are being brought to destablise PKR and PR during buy election time. We should not worry about HS. PR will have their chance next GE and one state seat could be won.

    Previously BN in HS always won by more than 14,000 votes majority and now its only 1724 despites all the money being poured into it. Also Najib, Muhyiddin and all UMNO cheap big shot have been sleeping and bathing there for the past week. It only show how desperate they are. Well they could not be sleeping and bathing with the voters in the whole country come next GE.

    PKR must get its act right now by choosing reliable and better people into its fold. PAS have been a good partner and they DAP are solid enough to withstand any pressure. The weakest link now is PKR. I believe they they get their act right, they should be able finish of UMNO BN at next GE. Sibu would fall. See if it is true.

     
  9. Hulu Selangor, a district in central Selangor state that is fairly similar in composition to the overall population of the Malaysian peninsula.

    ===

    This statement is not true. In Hulu Selangor, there is 20% Indian compared to 10% at the national level.

     
  10. I don’t know if I can agree with the summary. Prior to this, PR actually had the momentum short term, medium term, long term. It does not anymore. Whatever you may want to say about Najib and BN, he stopped PR in its tracks in the short-term at the expense of long-term interest. However, as the say, in the long-run, we are all dead.

    For sure, nothing is certain, Najib short-term gain could very well evaporate very quickly if something goes horribly wrong for example the economy tanked or a scandal. Without a major incident, Najib and BN has time and bet PR to break apart for example, god forbid, Nik Aziz … or Mahathir leaves the scene and Najib has more leeway to move.

    I would say that for the moment, luck is on BN’s side. We will see if they squander it, as historically they have done so or they appreciate it.

     

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