Pakatan wins popular vote – and more seats

Pakatan wins popular vote – and more seats

Despite all the vote-buying, dubious voters etc, here are some telling statistics. Early calculations indicate Pakatan may have won the popular vote across the nation in the 2013 general election.

Parliamentary seats won

2008: BN 140 vs PR 82 (confirmed)
2013: BN 133 vs PR 89 (PR additional 7) (confirmed)

State assembly seats won

2008: BN 307 vs PR 196 (The Star, 2008 results)
2013: BN 275 vs PR 229 (PR wins additional 33 seats) (Official 2013 results)

Popular vote

2008: BN 4.082m (50.27%) vs PR 3.796m (46.75%) (Wikipedia entry on GE2008)
2013: BN 5.220m vs PR 5.489m (Pakatan won 269130 more votes than BN – Malaysian Insider early calculations)
2013: BN 5.238 PR 5.624 (revised – Malaysian Insider)

Peninsula: 2013: BN 45.74% PR 53.29% (Malaysiakini)
Nationwide: 2013: BN 47.38% PR 50.87% Others 1.74% (Malaysiakini)

In percentage terms, it looks as if the popular vote percentage has been reversed, this time in PR’s favour. Blog reader Alan L shares with us his own calculations:

RESULTS BY POPULAR VOTES

Pakatan 5557993 total votes (50.39%)
Barisan 5137133 total votes (46.57%)
Others 167128 (1.52%)
Spoilt 168103 (1.52%)

TOTAL VOTERS in PRU13: 11030357 (100%)

Pakatan obtained 420,860 more votes than Barisan, a margin of 3.82% over Barisan.

RESULTS BY PARLIAMENTARY SEATS

Pakatan 89 (40.09%)
Barisan 133 (59.91%)

TOTAL 222 (100%)

Pakatan obtained 50.39 per cent of the popular vote (a simple majority) but won only about 40 per cent of the parliamentary seats.

Barisan obtained 46.57 per cent of the popular vote (substantially less than a simple majority) but wound up with close to 60 per cent of the parliamentary seats!

Pakatan won the popular vote easily by 420,860 votes, a margin of 3.82 per cent over Barisan.

By comparison, even in one of the most controversial elections in recent memory – when George Bush Jr won (some would say stole) the US Presidential elections in 2000 despite losing the popular vote, the difference in the popular vote count between him and Al Gore was only 0.5 per cent in favour of Gore. Bush ended up winning 50.5 per cent of the electoral votes vs 49.5 per cent for Gore (electoral votes are akin to parliament seats in the US). So to put things in parallel:

Bush lost the popular vote by 0.5 per cent and scraped through the electoral college count by 1 per cent.

Barisan lost the popular vote by 3.8 per cent (almost 8 times worse than Bush) but won Parliament by a whopping 20 per cent!

The popular vote is the purest form of democracy and follows the simplest formula: one man/woman equals one vote. Majority wins.

While electoral districts are often apportioned with the objective of lessening the influence of heavily populated areas, these are normally done within constitutional limits which have been established to avoid gerrymandering by the ruling powers.

Malaysia’s current apportionment of electoral districts makes a mockery of democracy.

Anyone else can confirm/verify these figures?

You see how gerrymandering including the lopsided rural weightage made a difference for the BN?

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26 COMMENTS

  1. The myth: PR did well in GE13.

    The myth: Chinese is hero in this GE for overwhelming support for DAP

    The fact: 1Malaysia PM Najib still is the PM. Applause please.

    The fact: BN won Kedah = a slap in PAS face. 50% quota is plain unacceptable.

    The fact: BN able to retain Perak. Meeting under the tree is plain stupid.

    The fact: With YAB Datuk Mukhriz Mahathir as MB for Kedah it is impossible for PR to win back Kedah for decades to come.

    The fact: BN without Chinese support also OK. Chinese remains the minority (Except Penang). So dont syiok sendiri.

    The fact: The Chinese is the sole loser in this GE. Keep inform of the changes affecting the chinese. Dong Zong should be very worry.

     
  2. When one constituency has 5,000 voters compared to 200,000 in another, people in the latter have only 2.5% of the democratic rights of the former. This is the crux of our apartheid.

     
  3. The myth: Najib Razak did well in GE13.
    The facts: Najib Razak spent at least 5 times more Taxpayers money for campaigning, half of which went to unproductive purposes! In the end, Pak Lah did better than Najib Razak – he failed big time!!
    Verdict: Najib Razak would probably be kicked out after the next UMNO elections!!

     
    • What is frightening is that even projects and routine expenditure unrelated to elections are unproductive (uneconomic) – like pouring money down the drain – because they are ill-concieved, overly ambitious, inappropriate, excessive in capacity or over-priced. Even for reasonable projects, assets are then destroyed by incompetence, negligience or corruption, including lack of skills or of maintenance.

      Norway and Kuwait have very large funds to show for their wealth – no need to mention the little Red Dot lah – while our cupboard is empty. Remember, these are 2 countries with extreme climates, while we have a near-perfect climate and abundant natural resources including soil, with only rare and small-scale natural disasters.

       
  4. Good to see that Anil is quoting its sources of information.

    Pakatan win urban votes from people who are more informed unless the rural folks (giving their votes to BN) whose source of information is from MediaPrima (NST, BH, TV3, TV9) and Utusan group (Kosmo, Utusan Malaysia), as well as Astro Awani. In 5 years time, more people will gain access to alternative media (at least 30 mins a day courtesy of Najib’s free internet) and BN will lose more votes if it is still trying to provide biased reporting via its mainstream media.

     
  5. Tuan Guru Abdul Hadi Awang, Tuan, Our job on earth is to correct the wrong and make it good even if we will to lose our life for it, that is why god has given this mission to us in this life time and if it is beyond our capabilities, then it is left to god in our afterlife. In this case, I cannot accept Najib as my leader( PM ), because he is the leader of a bunch of thieves, who cheated us this GE13, Devils only know how to cheat and by accepting him as leader, then I’ll become one of them, a DEVIL believer, that is why I cannot and will not accept him. I believe in God like you, Tuan Guru, sir, I respect you, but we have to do god’s works as long as we are here on this earth and not afterlife. Afterlife is god’s work and we got noting to do with afterlife, ours is here NOW. Thank you, Tuan Guru.

     
  6. We cannot give up and let the next generation deals with this situation. We need to take affirmative action to make inroads into the Malays heartland and also other pribumis of Sabah and Sarawak through societal activities to raise their political awareness so that they are able to make informed decision. The next five years we al have to work hard. I asking those who believe in the course of Pakatan, ABU and others not to desert our country and let it go down the drains. Like our forefathers who tried to make Malaysia a better place for us in terms of basic standard of living, we now owe our next generation a higher standard of living through that offers safety, healthy and wealthy through reduced corruption and sustainable way of life. Personally I believed that PKR and DAP should merge to form a true multi-racial party and do not copy BN’s model of domination. That needs a lot effort and sacrifice of personal fight. Are we ready for that?

     
  7. There is some thing new this time – unreturned ballots. Can you tally up that figure as well.

    Another interesting figure to compare is the number of votes returned for the state seats within the parliamentary constituencies.

     
  8. Anil: “popular vote is the purest form of democracy”

    Just accept the GE13 result. Spinning about the ‘purity’ has no value as 1Malaysia PM Najib already sworn in as PM.

    Don’t talk about democracy when DAP scare to be opposition leader when they won the most MP seats among the opposition parties[1]. Dap mana tau democracy ???

    p/s: “ini currylah” !!!

    Reference:
    [1]DAP backs Anwar as opposition leader, says Kit Siang (http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/malaysia/article/dap-backs-anwar-as-opposition-leader-says-kit-siang/)

     
  9. Pakatan lost Kedah !!!

    Pakatan also failed to win Perak !!! How sad is that ??? Where are you Jong ??? I believe Miss Hee also can win if fielded.

    Congrat to Mukhriz and Zambry as MB in Kedah and Perak.

     
    • Stop grinning Gerakan K! I see you need attention and had been talking to yourself eh?
      Yes, like everyone else in Malaysia who had hopes for Change/Ubah were greatly disappointed by the results not because its people’s choice but because we knew GE-13 results had been heavily rigged and we are all so helpless. Perak eg – check out this tweet from Member of Parliament Taiping Ngar

      Nga Kor Ming 倪可敏 ‏@ngakorming

      Undi Perak :
      PR 625,710(54.9%)
      BN 508,747(44.49%),
      PR menang undi majoriti Lebih 100,000 undi tapi BN bentuk krjn.
      1 lagi penipuan BN.

      Tau baca Gerakan K, sekolah ape?

      How come Zambry Abdul Kadir was in such a hurry to get himself sworn in?
      Did you read MKini headlines “Pakatan boycotts Perak MB’s swearing-in ceremony”!
      EC failed and GE-13 results was incorrect. Now you know why –

      http://www.malaysiakini.com/news/229388

       
  10. DSAI tolong jgn letak jawatan utk bagi kuliah di mane2 universiti di dlm dan luar Malaysia.Kite perlukan anda di mase senang dan susah.Teruskan berjuang sampai hujung nyawa hingge akhir hayatmu.Contohilah Mahatma Gandhi misalnya.Lain kali jgn declare menang awal2 tgk ape jadi?16 Septemberlah,PR mng PRU 13lah.PRU 14 dan berikutnya tolong tolak ansur bagi DAP bertanding di kerusi Parlimen lebih dari PKR-PAS combine.Sebagai yg paling mude dan bongsu,PKR kenelah mengalah PKR paling mentah antara 3 parti PR.DAP bertanding 51 kerusi mng 38,PKR plk 99 tapi mng 30 je ape citer???PAS lagi teruk,dulu mng Terengganu 1999 klh 2004 situ.Mng tadbir KEDAH 2008 klh plk 2013.PAS mmg tak sesuai memerintah mane2 negeri2 PR tadbir gaye pemerintahan mereka mmg tak serasi dgn rakyat Malaysia.80% peratus keluar undi pun tk cukup nk mng PRU.2008 PR dpt 82 kerusi kalini tmbh 7 kerusi jadi 89.Saya yakin trend ini berterusan,PRU 14,PR dpt 96 kerusi,PRU 15 plk 103 kerusi INSYA ALLAH.Tapi DSAI,Nik Aziz time tu mungkin sdh lame tdk ade jike masih ade ALHAMDULILLAH.PRU 14 dn berikutnya tolong bagi DAP ketuai PR gempur BN.Biar DAP tanding 60-70 kerusi die mampu sapu 50-60 kerusi parlimen utk PR daripade bagi PKR yg tamak tanding 99 dan PAS yg lain tapi mng cume 30 dan 24 kerusi itu satu keje bodoh yg rugikan PR.Tolonglah DSAI biar DAP tanding jumlah kerusi terbanyak.Oh tolong bwk wakil United Nation dan sebagainya utk pantau dan lihat sendiri kendali PRU berikutnya di sini lpsni.BN tak blh percayai mmg tipu serba serbi tanpa henti utk kekal berkuase.Tolong ambil ingatan ni dgn serius.Saya dah undi kali pertama utk PR di Penang utk bagi PR kekal di sini,ketamakan PKR-PAS di peringkat pusat merugikan punca kite tk mng Putrajaya.Najib down,Muhyidin plk naik PM,Mukhriz DPM utk PRU 14,PRU 15 muhyidin out mukhriz kuty mahatir plk PM haktuih betul.DSAI,tolong jgn kklkn Khalid Ibrahim jd MB Selangor.Kepimpinan die yg lemah mcm Azizan bkl menyebabkan Selangor tewas kpd BN mcm di Kedah.Tgk Titiwangsa,Setiasawangsa,Kuala Selangor tumbang dpt kpd BN.Jgn plk bagi Azmin Ali jdk MB die tu batu api punca sengketa pecah belah dlm PKR dan sesame PR.Tolong fastrack anak DSAI NURUL IZZAH jdk MB Selangor biar die rase bagaimane tanggungjawab jdk ketua di peringkat lebih tinggi.Persiapkan NURUL utk PRU 14,15 dan berikutnya ganti tempat DSAI nanti.Pedulikan ape BN kate BN sendiri sbk naikkan anak mahatir mukhriz utk naik jdk PM PRU 15.Jike DSAI gagal jdk PM biar Nurul capai hasrat itu.Jumpe lagi lain kali 5 tahun lagi,GO GO MU.

     
  11. As predicted PR won the votes not the government. This term you have the chance to do the constituency delineation. The first task for fair election in the future is to ensure that there are fair apportionment of voters for each constituency. Bersih particularly should undertake this task as it was the most vocal party for clean election. Don’t wait until the last moment before you do something. This will be an uphill task expected to face some obstacles from certain quarters.

     
  12. While I agree with Khoo’s point about PR needing to build up a strong base in the rural areas in states like Pahang, Trengganu, Negri Sembilan, Malacca and Kedah–something that is well known even before yesterday’s election–I think therein lies PR’s dilemma.

    What I mean is, for PR to build the rural base, PR members have to be stationed there, meet people there, talked to them there, and be seen there. Their presence has to be felt by folk there. Yesterday’s election showed it won’t work for a candidate to be dropped into an area and expect to win votes by having ceramahs with the rural folk only from nomination day to the eve of polling day. Unless you are Lim Kit Siang.

    Many rural folk believe you more if they can see you or even face to face communicate with you before the election campaigning. This is not to say they don’t use the internet and other advanced technologies of communication. But it will take more time for them to rely more on the internet for political information and discourse.

    Furthermore, I don’t think many rural folk are so interested in the more abstract issues of rights, fair play and justice, until of course they are directly affected by them. Bread and butter issues are more real, urgent to many of them. I don’t think I am being elitist or snobbish here. I think the rural world needs to be understood more adequately on its own terms and not be seen through urban eyes.

    And so, PR members must be seen regularly to station in rural areas to make inroads. Thing is, PR members are typically in their 30s and 40s, and they are professionals or technocrats. I think many of them will not find rural areas attractive to their career and lifestyle. How can they see themselves stationing in these areas?

    In this past electioneering, the online news portals carried a good deal of news on basically issues or candidates in the urban areas of Selangor, Penang and Johor. The huge ceramahs PR managed to get were no doubt impressive and made good photos. Again, all these were decidedly urban issues or events and they swept many PR supporters to think they were national issues or events. Hardly any significant coverage of the electioneering in Trengganu, Kelantan, Pahang, Kedah (except for Mukhriz and Mahathir there), Negri Sembilan, Malacca. I am not blaming the news portals for neglecting those areas in their coverage. I see absence of the coverage as a reflection of the overall weakness with PR. True, they had to fight hard to hang on to Selangor and Penang because BN made it all too clear those were still their coveted states. But BN could spend more resources–monetary and manpower, not to mention crooked ways and means–on them knowing they had a strong grip of the rural areas in the other states. But PR just did not have resources, especially the manpower, to counter BN in the hinterland.

    It is also rather puzzling why PR would focus on Johor instead of Perak. They knew very well from the beginning they had no chance of taking over Johor from BN whereas Perak was well within their reach. It was good for Lim Kit Siang that he managed to knock out Ghani. But I can’t help but wonder why not focus on Perak instead and let his presence there create a larger impact for PR to make sure they win Perak instead?

    With Perak back to BN again, PR’s tremendously solid gains in Selangor and Penang over the 2008 election only further cements it as an urban party. When are they going to get serious with their rural game in order to take over Putrajaya? Can they find their members who are bright and talented professionals or technocrats to commit their presence to the rural areas?

     
  13. It does not matter. The problem is UMNO/BN not only clawed back Kedah, they clawed into Kelantan even as they lost ground in Terengganu.. They can keep doing this for a LONG LONG TIME and keep losing even more popular vote and STILL win…

    The dream of reform is NOT dead, unfortunately its clear the price for it will be VERY VERY HIGH..Like it or not, its not the character of the average reformist to perservere. Its not our national character..By the time it happens, the dream of Tunku Abdul Rahman and Onn Bin Jaffar will be dead. When Mahathirism loses, we lose TOO MUCH..

     
  14. How much is the BN pork barrel hands out + banner + media ads + internet ads + campaigner support spending, etc?
    2 billions? 5 billions?

    And don’t forget, Bolehland has a tendency of “making frogs” since mahathir era.

     
  15. For further comparison, attached is the breakdown for the results of the Singapore General Election in May 07, 2011: (see for yourself)

    Results of Singapore General Election: 07th May, 2011

    Total no. of votes = 2,015,636 votes
    Total no of seats (Parliament) contested = 87 seats

    Total no. of popular votes for PAP = 1,212,154 votes
    Percentage of popular votes = 60.138%
    Total no of seats won = 81 seats
    Percentage = 93.103 %

    Total no of popular votes for WP = 258,510 votes
    Percentage of popular votes = 12.825%
    Total no of seats won = 6 seats
    Percentage = 6.897 %

    Bal of votes goes to Parties that contested but lost = 544,972 votes
    Percentage of popular votes = 27.037%
    Total no. of seats won = 0
    Percentage = 0

    SAMPAI BILA LAH !!!

     
  16. Every Malaysian knew what’s going on but none can change it. Let it be. Perhaps, our next generations are more brilliant than us on solving this matter, I’m sure they can do it. Life goes on & hoping for a better tomorrow.

    UBAH !! One day we all will see a better Malaysia.

     
  17. In the long run, PKR and PAS needed to send their cadres into the Malay heartland, i.e the kampongs to educate the rural Malays on what is more important for the country and themselves, especially their children, then to keep on accepting handouts from UMNO. Show proof of UMNO political warlords loading their own pockets, through corruption, more than they provide for the rural countrymen with their pittance of goodies. … They have another 5 years to do it.There is nothing like commitment and belief in fighting for the good of all Malaysians and the country. We need good leaders, not those who line their pockets once they have power. This country will not be a great country if we keep on entertaining political leaders who are nothing but crooks and thieves. G.E. 13 results have provided us with greater zeal to overcome our weaknesses, to ensure a better future for our children and their children. We cannot wait another 50 years, subscribing not to change the country for the better.

     
  18. Hello Anil,

    Kudos for mentioning the popular vote count. This is something that urgently needs highlighting… I’ve been quite amazed that it has received zero mention in the foreign press. Then again, the EC is not very likely to bring this up any time soon.

    I spent the past couple of hours tallying up the vote counts of the *parliamentary* votes and if you’d let me share them on your site, here they are:

    RESULTS BY POPULAR VOTES

    Pakatan 5557993 total votes (50.39%)
    Barisan 5137133 total votes (46.57%)
    Others 167128 (1.52%)
    Spoilt 168103 (1.52%)

    TOTAL VOTERS in PRU13: 11030357 (100%)

    Pakatan obtained 420,860 more votes than Barisan.

    RESULTS BY PARLIAMENTARY SEATS

    Pakatan 89 (40.09%)
    Barisan 133 (59.91%)

    TOTAL 222 (100%)

    Pakatan won the popular vote easily by 420,860 votes, a margin of 3.82% over Barisan.

    Pakatan obtained 50.39% of the popular vote (a simple majority) but won only about 40% of the parliamentary seats.

    Barisan obtained 46.57% of the popular vote (substantially less than a simple majority) but wound up with close to 60% of the parliamentary seats!

    By comparison, even in one of the most controversial elections in recent memory – when George Bush Jr won (some would say stole) the US Presidential elections in 2000 despite losing the popular vote, the difference in the popular vote count between him and Al Gore was only 0.5% in favour of Gore. Bush ended up winning 50.5% of the electoral votes vs 49.5% for Gore (electoral votes are akin to parliament seats in the US). So to put things in parallel:

    Bush lost the popular vote by 0.5% and scraped through the electoral college count by 1%.

    Barisan lost the popular vote by 3.8% (almost 8 times worse than Bush) but won Parliament by a whopping 20%!!

    The popular vote is the purest form of democracy and follows the simplest formula: one man/woman equals one vote. Majority wins.

    While electoral districts are often apportioned with the objective of lessening the influence of heavily populated areas, these are normally done within constitutional limits which have been established to avoid gerrymandering by the ruling powers.

    Malaysia’s current apportionment of electoral districts makes a mockery of democracy.

     
  19. Every one I met today had a sense of deflation, feeling as if something bad is going to come soon.

    Will this be another 5 years of plunder and systematic erosion of the integrity of our public institutions?

     

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