An enormous package that exceeds the expectations of most people – two weeks before the Umno general assembly.

RM60 billion of our money! And guess what? RM29 billion of this is slated for “assisting the private sector”. The “boys” will be licking their lips and rubbing their hands in anticipation. (I can just picture it – stimulated by the stimulus package!)

First off, the obvious question: where is this money coming from? “Domestic sources,” says Najib, cryptically. Apparently, there’s “ample liquidity” in the system.

And secondly, what mysteries lie hidden behind the RM60 billion? Let’s keep it simple. The RM60 billion package comprises:

  • RM15 billion in fiscal injection  (RM10 billion in 2009 and RM5 billion in 2010). Fiscal deficit expected to rise to 7.6 per cent in 2009;
  • RM25 billion in guarantee funds (RM5 billion for SME Working Capital Fund, another RM5 billion for Industry Restructuring Fund and the rest?)
  • RM10 billion in equity investment (For Khazanah?)
  • RM7 billion for private finance initiative and off-budget projects (Where is this “private finance” coming from? Not out of the EPF, I hope.)
  • RM3 billion in tax initiatives

Continue reading »

 

Despite all the stimulus packages and bailouts, the US financial system is broke.

That’s the view of Nouriel Roubini, the economics professor who predicted the global economic collapse, long before most people.

He adds there is a “rising risk of a global L-shaped depression that would be even worse than the current, painful U-shaped global recession”.

That’s in sharp contrast to the view of other economists, the IMF, and the local business press, who are hoping for a small recovery in 2010. Some even are hoping for a rally in the second half of this year.

But Nouriel says any rally or recovery from China’s and the US’ stimulus packages this year is likely to be illusory, a sucker’s rally.

Today, Najib is going to announce a multi-billion mammoth second “stimulus package”. But will it be more money down the drain – apart from the usual jobs for the boys with public money?

Continue reading »