The Pakatan needs to carry out a serious postmortem to find out why and how it was thrashed in Bagan Pinang.
Posters of the Kg Buah Pala demolition were found around Ladang Siliau in Bagan Pinang on nomination day – Photo by Tiger
In some ways, the BN victory was not unexpected. Perhaps the scale of the defeat surprised many. But a few keen political analysts noticed something amiss ahead of polling day and predicted that Isa would win comfortably as noted in my post here.
So far, many have pointed to some obvious reasons for the BN’s landslide win:
Pull factors:
- Isa was a popular, well-known – albeit tainted – local candidate.
- Bagan Pinang is an Umno stronghold.
- All kinds of promises and enticements were made, especially to army personnel about improved facilities.
- Questions about the postal balloting system persisted.
- And of course, the mainstream media were used in the campaigning (but then the last three points were no different from previous by-elections – except there were more postal ballots here).
Push factors:
The problems caused by certain Pas politicians in Selangor, and the bad press the party received over attempts to ban concerts and the like could have contributed to the defeat. In many ways, these Pas politicians have not learnt from GE1999, when they mistook increased support for their party (then under the Barisan Alternatif) as a vote for more conservative religious laws and an Islamic state. But then, the party was mauled in GE2004.
These Pas politicians are now making the same mistake by assuming that the support for Pas in GE2008 was because voters want more conservative religious regulations even at the local level in places like Selangor. But then, look what happened in Bagan Pinang…
“(The loss is the) result of Pas screwing everything, I think,” wrote a political scientist, who happens to be a Muslim, in a text message to me. He added that the result was expected and about time too, and lamented the PKR’s inability to stand up to Pas. He pointed out that “Anwar’s gutless stand” in this respect suggests that “they (PKR) are prepared to cut cards with the devil to get Anwar to power at all costs”.
In a way, the Pakatan defeat could have a silver lining: it could strengthen the hand of the moderates within Pas such as Mat Sabu, Khalid Samad, Husam Musa and of course, Nizar.
PKR’s own inability to rein in certain elected reps from upsetting Pakatan supporters might have also cost the alliance some votes. DAP-PKR bickering, intra-party infighting and the perception that some Pakatan elected reps are more interested in securing positions of power instead of being focused on serving the rakyat surely did not help the campaign either.
As for the DAP, one observer emailed me, “If you get the chance to speak to LGE, tell him to get his Pakatan act together. Take this ‘probation’ period of five years to do house cleaning and remove all the baggage in the party. Or else it will just be a one-time surprise.” The same would apply to other Pakatan leaders and their parties.
The demolition of Kg Buah Pala – and the loss of the Makkal Sakthi factor – also would have eroded support for the Pakatan especially in estate areas.
Tiger, a Chinese Malaysian campaigning for Pas in Bagan Pinang who had visited Kg Buah Pala, sent me the photo of the posters above along with the following remarks:
This was one of BN’s tactics to win the Indian vote, and they did win the three Indian-Malaysian majority voting districts of Siliau, Ladang Atherton and Sua Betong – which in GE2008 were all won by Pas.
The issue of KBP will not be forgotten for a long time to come, as an example of social injustice perpetrated by a supposedly pro-people new state government.
If Pakatan Rakyat cannot understand this, they do not deserve to rule.
Harsh words, no doubt, especially when the Kg Buah Pala deal was approved by the BN. But perception in politics is also important. Did the Pakatan administration in Penang convey the impression that it was trying its level best to live up to its election promises and save the village by delaying the land transfer while it carried out an in-depth probe?
Among some segments of the middle-class, political betrayal may be par for the course. But when politicians make promises to the working class who are living on the margins of society, they’d better live up to them.
I was at the Freedom Film Festival in Penang on Saturday and one of the documentaries screened was about the demolition of Kg Berembang, a Malay settlement (and its surau) in Selangor, in 2007. One of the facilitators pointed out that the demolition swung popular support away from the BN in surrounding area during GE2008.
Just as Kg Berembang was one of the many factors contributing to the “perfect storm” that unleashed the political tsunami of 8 March 2008, the effect of the Kg Buah Pala demolition on the psyche of villagers and settlers elsewhere cannot be easily dismissed (even though Guan Eng is confident that the people of Penang are behind him).
The legal issues aside, it’s not going to be easy for either the BN or Pakatan to allow the wholesale demolition of villages in future without broad-ranging consultation with settlers especially in cases where they have lived on the land for generations. The gut-wrenching spectre of grandparents, parents and children wailing and sobbing as their homes are wrecked will extract in its wake a heavy political price.
Which brings me to the final point, brought to my attention by a political economist: the issues raised by the Pakatan tend to come from a middle-class perspective (issues such as corruption, civil and political rights – important as they are). But there is a class divide here: people living on the threshold of poverty are struggling to make ends meet, to put food on the dinner-table and to provide for their families. This is not to say that democracy, accountability and human rights are not important. Of course they are.
But economic issues do play a part. Has Pakatan clearly articulated its socio-economic agenda (apart from welfarism) when it is so obviously business-oriented? Does it even have a common position on a minimum wage and workers’ rights, for instance? What about insisting that all plantation firms provide their workers with adequate housing?
How does the Pakatan propose to deal with rising food prices? Many are constantly complaining about ever-increasing food prices in the market. How can the Pakatan talk about lowering or stabilising food prices when all its attention is on business and industry such that it barely talks about sustainable agriculture and farming?
And yet, higher food prices will hurt the poor the most. From what we have seen, the Pakatan seems unable to connect with the issues that matter most among many segments of rural voters – farmers, estate workers, fisherfolk – who remain cut off from the mainstream of development and the media.
So many lessons to be learned from Bagan Pinang – especially the fact that voters cannot be taken for granted anymore by either the BN or Pakatan.
This was a defeat waiting to happen and it should serve as a reality check and wake-up call for the Pakatan.
If the lessons are heeded, then this by-election defeat could be a blessing in disguise for the Pakatan in its long-term struggle. If not…
I personally don’t see what is wrong with LGE handling of KBP. But with so many holes up for attacks, I definately wrong. LGE has something to learn over KBP. I though he has done so much for KBP but the perception is so bad from the Indian Community, what went wrong?
I think Anil is so right, to the poor, what is corruption, accoutability to them? PR need to have a different approach to the poor and rural.
By now we can see a pattern, Gov to the rural without easy acees to Internet is BN. Gov to the urban area with easy internet access is PR. Why? there must be an explanation to this.
Btw, I still think Samy is good!, he master the skill to handle Indian community.. to the Umno’s BN he difinately deserved to be leader of indian community for 100 years to come. Well done to Samy and congratulate Umno’s BN to have Samy. He will ensure the community stays in estate, so that he can play (the leader).
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Ok. I see.
So LGE is to blame for KBP. OK. I hold him accountable.
Then is not Najib to blame for Cow-head demo, Kugan death? Is not UMNO to blame for 51 years of marginalization of Indians in Malaysia?
So, you will “rather now vote for BN”. What exactly have they done? Launch a new Makkal Sakhti party and what else? Anything else for Indian community?
Come on, answer will be appreciated!
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PR should be thankful to BP voters for waking them up from the GE12′s illusion of forming new federal government before too late.
PR with infighting among themselves is self-destruction with or without BN.
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Recently i watch tamil movie by actor kamalhasan who say indian people even not forgive but easily forget.That happen in bagan pinang election,KBP in penang but kugan death temple demolish under BN rule.Don,t worry makkal sakthi will be another MIC leaders willbe rich care towards people sorry to say.
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… Hee… has to turn herself to that … najib….
This new Makkal sakthi leader, Theni…..has again to turn to this … Najib….
Well both of them have been brought over…
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All these grumbling without any facts. Assert away and you only fool yourselves.
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Your fact is two short sentences?
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He who eats chili feels the heat.
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Those eating chili dare not disclose meeting minutes and chicken out from his challenge on open debate with KTK.
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Anil,
do you think if penang is ruled by BN today, the folks in kg buah pala will get a single cent out from the developer?
answer it yourself before pointing the fingers at PR.
and those who supported Anil’s absurd arguments, answer too.
why nobody cares about teoh beng hock. why nobody bothers about kugan. why the indians can forget the cow head insult.
to the indian voters who voted for MILO and sarees, do not regret your decisions in the future.
you all just threw your children’s future away for the sake of sarees and milo. shame on you people.
continue to be stupid and cry for help for your entire life.
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I agree with Tanjong(11.23pm).
Kampong Buah Pala was a non issue in Bagan Pinang campaign. Yes, I was there. It’s Hassan Ali of PAS in PR Selangor govt that ruined PR’s chances in Bagan Pinang. Everywhere people were talking about Hassan Ali and his beer-control. The Chinese and Indians in touristy Port Dickson know better they must not tolerate such extremism from PAS.
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LGE machai is polishing his boss’s shoes.
Only idiots purportedly ignore KPB incident has no side effect on Indian community. This is a deny syndrome labeled on BN by LKS in the past.
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Just look at the PTC, a group of …-like thinking Penangites, trying to solve the traffic congestion at Pulau Tikus. They don’t have anything new but depend on the previous state government’s solution which dare not take off after years of contemplating. More like play play than seriously wanting to solve the problem. With this type of people running the state government, you can bet come next GE, LGE will be easily booted out from the office. Solving a congestion problem do not need a rocket scientist but our politicians and pro-PR NGOs are acting like it is mission impossible.
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If PAS to stand in Bintulu, I’d likely not voting for them because of one thing – ie., their Islamic state quest – scare me. I don’t want to suddenly losing freedom under them.
I think you’re right, people like Hassan (Selangor PAS) – is responsible for scaring away the Chinese and Indian votes in Bagan Pinang.
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Hassan Ali is (allegedly) a mole planted … to destroy PR. Get rid of him is only way for PR to revive their dream.
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Anil,
1. Have you seen this website?
http://cryingvoices.webs.com/apps/blog/
2. There is a photo of a planned construction by NUSMETRO VENTURE.
3. Is that the so called RM500,000 Semi-D house which was offered to the so called families of the KBP?
4. Full link is here :
http://cryingvoices.webs.com/apps/blog/show/1926815-rm1-million-worth-bungalow-for-buah-pala-villagers-each-
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To blame the poor showing on Penang and LGE is a bit too far stretched. Even without KBP issues, signal is noted during the Merdeka survey that the Indian community is warming up to DSN’s gestures of reconciliation.
If you asked Selangor folks, like me, Port Dickson (Negri Sembilan) is very close to us as a favored local destination and viz versa. Thousands commute daily between KL & Seremban for work. So what happen in Selangor will affect the sentiment in Negri Sembilan. Frankly, just put the blame on the idiotic antics by some PR’s politicians, esp. those from PAS. Local political issues like KBP does not affect the sentiment ‘cos squatters and TOL are demolished by the tons without compensation. Families are evicted without mercy or adequate compensation. At least, under PR, the demolition and eviction have slowed down. Hawkers are not hassled on a daily routine. At the end of the day, no city folks like their freedom to be curtailed by a bunch of fanatical and hypocritical politicians who try to be more pious.
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Even Im supporting Pakatan….but this BN win serve the lesson for Pakatan…Pls dont give empty promise in future……Indian may be small in number but still can be significant….
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Fat
How ignorant You are. It is against the UMNO/BN 50 years Government law to put up the advert if the buildings have not been approved!!! The dwgs has sent for approval and in the processs. You are a product of UMNO edu.sys.
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No point talking about Bagan Pinang anymore. BN won & PAS lost..!!!
Next GE comes BN might win again. Just go look into the postal voters lah….!!
These politicians “HAVE” forgotten that it is we, the rakyat, that puts them “in or out”…!!!!
Now you see the “power” that the rakyat has….?????
Pakatan better buck-up…!!!!
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//who would want to plant paddy in penang? you?//
penang has more than 12000 ha for paddy planting & yet we hv ppl said who want to plant paddy in penang. hello pls go down to the ground b4 u make yourself look silly.
//and about the taiwanese and singaporean investors, do you know what actually happened?//
if i don’t know the fact i would not be able to relate the matter. the 200 odd investors were (put) off simply becos they could not get the answers to what the state could offer compare to thailand, vietnam & even china. btw the event was organised by penangites thru the alumi of taiwanese universities & if the taiwanese are so bad, why did the state govt went to taiwan recently & plan to go there again to lure investors from there? do u know that?
pls la, don’t make a fool out of yourself….
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Ck
Who is the real fool? Agriculture and fishing are Federal matter. So Gerakan/BN is at fault.
You think Taiwan are all clean factories? Anil & all Greenies will complain about the pollution that is what taiwan investors are famous for. of course Panang cannot give those taiwan the saunas and karaokes as compare to thailand, china and vietnam.
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In 6 months Najib has created such a … out of the governmnet by appointed and endorsing corruptible people like Malaaca CM, ISA, a disbarred lawyer who misappropriate RM 161,000, 2 ADUN in Perak on corruptible charges, 1 ADUN who (allegedly) has to … turn to Najib for financial help due to her husband mountain of debts ( and she was given real … by the people), trying to cover up the Port Klang scandal by trying to get rid of OTK, trying to appease certain people of GMAUDa… and covering up the mother of all scandal, Bakun Dam.
Just what would happen if Najib is the PM for 22 years.
Malaysia would (probably) become the most scandalised and corruptible country in the world with every department in the government run by corruotible people, criminals and those with tainted record.
And all coalition parties like Gerakan, MIC and MCA will become UMNO (puppets) unable to retort opr mince a word.
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Very good and accurate analysis, the point here is that PR must not only be with the rakyat but must seem to be with the rakyat. Its not all black and white as the DAP seems to think, there are the grey areas, the perception. Whatever the merits or demerits of Kg Buah Pala, it will haunt PR for a long time. The middle class can understand but the poor, less educated, the poverty stricken Indian, he perceives what he sees and the posters put up by BN (whether it tells the full story or not)tells a long tale and touches at the very heart of the the Indian sentiments. One must also remember that Indians in general are sentimental and are sensitive.
DAP/PKR/PAS need a strategist to take them to the next level, the politicians should take a back seat for a while and listen to a level headed strategist if they have one. Their earlier strategy to enter mainstream politics has worked but this strategy is now no good and a new strategy has to be worked out which should focus on sustainability and growth. Believe me, these two strategies are completely different. Its like using Mintzbergs entrepreneural school of strategic management as a basis for entry strategy. But now you are past that entrepreneural stage and you need a new strategy possibly based on the Mintzbergs Positioning School of Strategic Management, (positioning strategy came into being after Porter entered into the scene with competitive advantage in early eighties)that will focus on growth and sustainability.
Anyway, bottomline, PR need to change or it will be changed. Malaysians are a conservative lot, if the change in politics doesn’t bring about the desired result, then we go back to what we consider as safe and secure which will unfortunately be BN as there is no other alternative. And I can bet that this is what BN hopes will happen.
Your Choice – PR, terminate or be terminated.
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Fatimah Zuhri,
should read other blogs not pro PR, why PR lost and why BN won.
Who is Zorro compared to these 2 prominent writers ?
These writers
Read Dato’ Mohd Ariff Sabri bin Hj Abdul Aziz -Sakmongkol AK47
Read Syed Akbar Ali -Outsyed the BOx
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No mention about the pysche of the rural estate Indian or the level of political consciousness amongst them. The guys are POOR for heavensake. They are not bothered about what happens in the rest of Malaysia. Most probably they are more into Chennai politics or the shenanigans of MIC folk.
In the BP scenario they were indundated by MIC bigwigs akin to a concentration camp interlaced with threats about their livlihood. A mixed potent of ‘gifts’ and threats did the trick. It was easy game for the BN.
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When Hassan Ali of Selangor say or do something that people do not like, PR supporters will quickly label him as BN’s mole or ally. If this logic applied to BN, some will say Ahmad Ismail is PR’s mole or ally. People hate to see brainless propaganda from PR and thus voted BN.
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very well Analayzed by Anil.
Again, PR should realize that , for the poor people all these corruption & other issues are not a matter. Its their day to day dily.. when the threats and money are poured in, they prefer that to other great issues in malaysia.. i miight do the same , if i where in their situation. try to understand them..
And all the BN supporters dont go into illusion that the suppport is back. When the vote for opposition was a protest for Bn in last GE, then this was a warning protest vote to Bn against PR to get their acts right..
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Well I would suggest 15 family member of the pro tem KBP to speak out espeacially its chief Kana. In Star today, reported they do not bother & have no ties with the other selfish 9 family.
15 satisfied & appreciative family as against the no brainer of 9 bark a lot family of kpg buah pala resident.
UMNO has instead cover up thier past sin by deviating the blame to pakatan instead. Cunning move.
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I dont understand this UMNO goons..still pressing for Kpg Buah Pala issue. Go & check the facts lah..go ask the 15 family that accept the offer instead of minority 9. Why is outsider harping on the remaining 9 instead of looking into appreciative 15 family?
The construction cost of the semi-detached house may not exceed RM500,000 but at prime area, it value close RM500,000. They did mentioned ..it VALUE RM500,000 & land in Penang is not cheap.
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Can I grasp 2 hectares ancestry land from you for 6 million and then compensate your 15 siblings with terrace houses?
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Get this right…it is PAS not Pakatan who lost. If PAS continues its extremist action ALL its candidates will lose in the next GE
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Vineeth Menon,
“Again, PR should realize that , for the poor people all these corruption & other issues are not a matter. Its their day to day dily.. when the threats and money are poured in, they prefer that to other great issues in malaysia.. i miight do the same , if i where in their situation. try to understand them..”
I agree with you on this, it goes to show “money can settle everything and anything”
Loyalty is nothing when you have a hungry family to feed. Sometimes greed also comes into the picture.
The indians and chinese are also worried no development funds means no business.
No money coming in would reduce PR to nothingness.
People worry about bread and butter issues.
Think about it.
How to think about people centric issues and welfare, when you don’t have money ?
I am not saying sacrifice in totality people’s welfare, however long term plans should start now.
I agree that PR should stop the blame game and stop acting like oppositions.
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nkkhoo
October 14th, 2009 at 4.57pm · Reply
Can I grasp 2 hectares ancestry land from you for 6 million and then compensate your 15 siblings with terrace houses?
———————————-
mate, you are seriously … dumb. how many times does ppl have to tell you that it is not their land? what is wrong with that dumbo brain you have? Get a real job and get yourself a life….
p/s: anil, sorry for the shout! sometimes you just need to let it all out
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That was exactly DAP and PKR idiots told KBP residents that Gerakan was grasping their land. The hard evidence can be found in youtube.com.
Why so fast to change mind after 308? Indian voters in Bagan Pinang are doing good service to teach PR a hard lesson.
How a coward with no name in internet dares to tell me what to do in my life?
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