Terengganu a state to watch in coming polls

Terengganu a state to watch in coming polls

The east coast state of Terengganu will be a state to watch in the coming general election, with Pakatan perhaps having a slight edge over the BN.

Have a look at the response from the crowd here.

In the last general election, the BN won 55 per cent of the popular vote in state seats to capture 24 of the 32 state seats on offer. Pas bagged the remaining eight.

11 COMMENTS

  1. Liew Chin Tong (MP of Bukit Bendera)’s analysis for Johor in GE13:

    Johor is the last bastion of Barisan Nasional but the coming general election may prove that the fortress may turn out to be merely a sand castle. If Pakatan Rakyat gets the support of 35 percent Malay, 80 percent Chinese and 50 percent Indian voters in Johor, 20 parliamentary seats will fall like dominoes. Hence, Pakatan may gain the much-needed 112-seat threshold to form the next federal government with just seats from Peninsula Malaysia.

    In the two rounds of seat re-delineation exercises in 1994 and 2003, many multiethnic mixed seats were created for Barisan Nasional to maximise its multiethnic appeal and to make the most out of the opposition’s inability to win across ethnic boundaries.

    PAS was made to be seen by the Barisan-controlled media to non-Malays as an anathema to their interests while DAP as a threat to the Malays. Before 2008, PAS supporters rarely vote for DAP and vice versa.

    The 2008 general election saw PAS benefiting from outpouring Chinese and Indian support for the “anything but UMNO” call while some urban Malays voted for DAP for the first time in their lives. Many multiethnic seats in the states north of Negeri Sembilan on the west coast of the Peninsula fell to the opposition.

    Sabah and Johor are the two most crucial battlefields in the 2013 election. While Sabah attracts substantial attention, it could be hampered by seat negotiation and cooperation among various opposition groups. Johor is where Barisan Nasional may fall like dominoes.

    Of Johor’s 26 parliamentary seats, only 8 have more than 60 percent Malay votes which are harder to win with the current level of support for Pakatan Rakyat. No seat in Johor has more than 60 percent Chinese voters.

    On the one hand, without 25 percent Malay support, even if non-Malay swing to Pakatan Rakyat is huge, the entire momentum may just fizzle out with a very few seats gained. Pakatan Rakyat received only about 20 percent Malay support in Johor during the 2008 general election.

    On the other hand, if 35 percent Malay voters support Pakatan in this election, anything could happen. While it is tough to get 35 percent Malay support, it is never impossible.

    I was informed that a recent opinion poll shows that Malay support for Pakatan in Johor has exceeded 30 percent though the support varies among parties – PAS’ support is much higher than average while DAP’s Malay support is lower than average.

    The poll also shows that support from the Chinese for Pakatan is around 70 percent though varies among parties with DAP exceeding the average while PAS lower than average. The poll shows the support from among Indians is at about 50 percent.

    From purely mathematic simulations, here are the possible scenarios in Johor (assuming Indian support for Pakatan is constant): ~

    •Malay support at 25%, Chinese support at 65%, Pakatan will win just 1 parliamentary seat in Johor;
    •Malay support at 30%, Chinese support at 70%, Pakatan will win 6 seats;
    •Malay support at 30%, Chinese support at 75%, Pakatan will win 12 seats;
    •Malay support at 35%, Chinese support at 75%, Pakatan will win 16 seats;
    •Malay support at 35%, Chinese support at 80%, Pakatan will win 20 seats.

    Of course these are just simulations on paper. But it shows that Barisan Nasional’s castle may crumble if a perfect storm comes into shape. It is also a fresh tsunami alert from the people of Johor to the government who refuses to reform.

     
  2. I think Johor is the state to watch for GE13.

    It has 26 parlimentary seats where BN is now holding 25, DAP 1.

    Out of these 26 seats, 8 with malay majority >60% (Felda folks!)

    For PR to march to Putrajaya, they must win at least 12.
    MCA is under pressure to protect its territories while Pakatan is beginning to make inroads to the mind of chinese voters. There are many Pakatan ceramah in Johor towns lately with good response but little or no coverage on mainstream papers.Indian voters are still figuring out how to be kingmaker as Hindraf may end up taking the offer of BN, sadly.

    PR will win if PAS supporters are willing to vote for DAP and vice versa.

    A unite front of PR will dent the Johor fortress of BN!

     
    • THE Umno-led Barisan Nasional (BN)’s insatiable greed for wealth is the reason why Malaysia is today economically and financially inferior to Singapore.
      After 55 years of uninterrupted rule, all we have are the rich and super rich BN-Umno elites to show while the majority of rural and urban Malaysians remain poor or trapped in the middle-income group.
      Former premier Mahathir Mohamad’s reported US$44 billion … estimated wealth and Sarawak chief minister Taib Mahmud and his family’s RM… are clear examples of how BN-Umno had hijacked the New Economic Policy (NEP) for political elites and their cronies, not the majority of Malays.
      The non-Malays have also been discriminated by BN-Umno in every aspect of socio-economic progress, as opposed to the Federal Constitution that all Malaysians are equal.
      BN-Umno has mismanaged the country’s wealth and misled all Malaysians. That was the reason for the 2008 political tsunami.
      Unfortunately, Johoreans continued to support Umno and MCA in the 12th General Election to keep BN in power for another five years.
      Johoreans, especially the Chinese, must therefore rise in the coming general election to reject BN and Chua Soi Lek’s MCA to save Malaysians and Malaysia from the depths of socio-economic hell.
      The winds of change are blowing strongly in Sabah and Sarawak, and Johoreans must follow suit to ensure there is political change and a brighter future for all.
      Many have asked how Pakatan Rakyat (PR) will be able to fulfill its promises like free education for all from primary to tertiary levels and other people-centric fiscal measures aimed at poverty eradication.

      The answer is the tens of billions of ringgit saved from leakages and corruption in the federal administration and the prudent use of oil revenue.

      http://chuajuimeng123.blogspot.com/2013/02/chua-appeals-to-johoreans-to-stop-bn.html

       
  3. Teregganuan have a very soft spot for Anwar. PAS Terengganu tasted power because of Anwar’s reformasi movement. Now with Anwar back in full force, it will swing especially now that the youth vote is even bigger than it was before..

     
  4. Last election PAS 8 seat. With just another 8-9 seat from PR, it will be over for BN.
    Like wise it will be the same for Johore, Sabah & Negeri Sembilan. Together with the other 5 states won last GE it will be BeEnd for BN

     
  5. So anil, read more Malays newspaper. there are “10 manifesto tambahan PAS” in Terengganu. Basically in the nature of “you help me, I help you” if they got 20% oil $$$. Another unrealistic set of promise.

    And you do know the local (eligible voters) reactions ??? Haha, I guess you don’t know since you are depending on pro-pakatan media for information.

    Time to travel around Malaysia to see and hear the reactions yourself. It is very interesting time now to travel and listen to ordinary people voices.

    p/s: Some old reader like Ahmad Sobri is returning to your site, anil. Don’t disappoint us. Do plan for live chat/comment between readers during nomination and election days. Expect exceptional heavy traffic this time. As being told, your site is under the ‘range’ due to localization (Penang based/pro-LGE). Keep your eyes WIDE open, 72 hours before elections. I miss old readers like Iron and O too. Please come and join us in comments !!! Time for elections. Let’s evaluate and pick the best party for our Malaysia !!!

     
  6. stadium roof collapse twice are bad omen for Be-End ineffective administrators; and we are not talking about even poor maintenance culture.

    so wont be surprised No No No in Trengagnu next.

     

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