Sungai Kandis by-election: PKR’s vote share rises from 55.6% to 61.4%

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PKR has won the by-election with a reduced majority of 5,872 votes on the back of a low turnout of 49.4%, but its share of the votes actually rose from 55.6% to 61.4%.

By-election

Votes (% share of votes) – Parties

15,427 (61.4%) – Mohd Zawawi Ahmad Mughni (PKR)
9,585 (38.2%) – Lokman Adam (BN)
97 (0.4%) – K Murthy (independent)
——
25,109 (100%) – Total valid votes cast
——

9 May 2018 general election

23,998 (55.6%) – PKR
11,518 (26.7%) – BN
7,573 (17.5%) – Pas
76 (0.2%) – PRM
——
43,165 (100%) – Total valid votes cast
——

Although PKR’s winning majority was lower than its winning majority of 12,480 in the general election, the party’s share of the valid votes cast rose from 55.6% at the general election to 61.4% this time around. This was despite Pas not putting up a candidate in the by-election so as not to split the opposition vote. Perhaps close to a third of the Pas support has gone to PKR this time.

Another way of analysing this is by looking at which party suffered more from the lower turnout.

The turnout dropped from 43,165 valid votes cast to 25,109 ie a drop of 42%.

PKR’s share of votes dropped from 23,998 to 15,427 ie a drop of 36%, less than the 42% fall in votes cast.

But Umno/BN-Pas’ share of the votes dropped from [11,518 + 7,573] to 9,585 ie a drop of 50%, much larger than the 42% fall in votes cast.

What this means is that Umno and Pas’ race-and-religion rhetoric since the general election has actually eroded support for the two parties in a large Malay-majority seat. For Umno, the race-and-religion rhetoric simply doesn’t cut it anymore, and the sooner it realises this, the better. In fact, Umno-Pas cooperation could in the long-run help Pas more than it helps Umno.

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The higher share of votes for PKR also means that voters have rejected Najib’s kleptocracy (Najib campaigned during the by-election) once again while consigning Lokman Adam to obscurity.

Still, Pakatan Harapan should reflect on why excitement for the by-election had waned. Could it be just election fatigue and lack of enthusiasm among out-of-town voters? Or is it something deeper: the failure to hasten the process of some of the reforms pledged in the PH manifesto eg the pledge to establish the Independent Police Complaints and Misconduct Commission or other reforms such as the reintroduction of local government elections?

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Rejab
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Rejab

Umno still claim that DAP has Christian agenda to scare the malays. Never learn the lesson of their defeat in GE14. Umno still think malays are gullible and stupid.

Norman
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Norman

Cut religion from the politics of new Malaysia

https://malaysiakini.com/news/437549

DSAI must take note if he is returning to Harapan.

shriek
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shriek

Still want to vote for BN under umno? They always talk about race and religion and trying to make ketuanan. But look PH tries to unify the nation and make Malaysia great and boleh starting from pg to PJ leading to merdeka celebration.

Norman
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Norman

Race & Religion politics no longer accepted by New Malaysians. Umno and PAS still could not get over the new reality.

Kana Teeraj
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Kana Teeraj

But the politicians are still afraid of the Malays and Mslims??? Anyway on the positive side Murthy knows he has 97 loyal friends.

ktwong87
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According to Malaysiakini’s live coverage report, Kajang assemblyperson Hee Loy Sian opined that: “One of the factors for a low turnout today was that one party had ‘boycotted’ the polls. “I received information their local members were unhappy with the plan to cooperate with Umno.” That obviously is about PAS members not voting. To me, that also ties in with reports earlier in the week in which PAS members voiced support for PKR’s Zawawi. Perhaps some still abide by the wisdom of the late Nik Aziz who was adamant about any partnership with UMNO after his bitter experiences with UMNO.… Read more »

ktwong87
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That should have been:

“…the wisdom of the late Nik Aziz who was adamantly against any partnership with UMNO after his bitter experiences with UMNO”

bigjoe
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bigjoe

Still way too early to jump to so much conclusion..PAS voters clearly did not come out in force for BN, but polling box analysis shows that those that turned out did in fact voted for BN. Sneezing at PAS ability to mobilize is a big big mistake. Its more likely the rank and file of PAS wants to lead the UMNO-PAS venture rather than anything else. So the real question is how confident are the liberal left that UMNO, push comes to shove, will not second fiddle themselves to PAS? Difficult but not even unlikely. Push comes to shove, they… Read more »

ktwong87
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Kit Siang put it very clearly when he described Sungai Kandis as a “double slap in the face for Najib and Hadi”. Prof Mohd Tajuddin Rasdi of UCSI University opined that “PAS and Umno supporters no longer have faith in the Umno-PAS pact”. While the PAS leadership seemed to consider it wise to cooperate with UMNO, and even officialy urge its members to vote for UMNO-BN, the figures available now shows that the people on the ground do not agree. Why? The effects of the excesses and incompetence of Najib’s regime must surely have counted. GST hit the common folks… Read more »

Norman
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Norman

RISE: Ini Kalilah, a film inspired by the 14th general election and based on the concept of unity, will be screened in theatres nationwide on September 13, in conjunction with the Malaysia Day celebration.

Producer Fred Chong said the 100-minute feature film was inspired by Malaysians from all walks of life who came together to vote for change.