Live – BN wins with reduced majority in Rompin

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Official result – BN 23796, Pas 14901 (Majority: 8895)

2011:  Unofficial result – BN 22679 votes, Pas 14445 votes (Majority: 8234).

Pas votes have held steady – only a dip of 25 votes – despite the reduced turnout. But perhaps more people could have been encouraged to turn up and vote for Pas if Pakatan solidarity had been stronger and if it had not been for Pas’ hudud initiative.

This means in all likelihood, the GST and the higher cost of living has hurt the BN; it polled 6244 votes fewer this time compared with GE 13 and its share of the valid votes cast slumped from 66.8 per cent to 61.6 per cent. Pas’ share, meanwhile, has climbed from 33.2 per cent to 38.4 per cent, more likely due to unhappiness over GST rather than any enthusiasm for hudud. (Pas had used GST as a key issue in its campaign.)

The BN’s majority has dropped from 15114 at GE13 to 8895 this time, largely due to the 6300-odd voters who stayed away this time around. Call it the GST factor.

1950: BN 15144 votes Pas 9313 votes (Majority: 5831)

1931: BN 10610 votes Pas 6621 votes (Majority: 3989)

1917: BN 7034 votes Pas 4027 votes (Majority: 3007)

1856: BN 2489 votes, Pas 1373 votes (Majority: 1116)

The big question is … to what extent will GST hurt the BN’s performance and how will the hudud factor (and its impact on Pakatan solidarity) affect Pas’ performance? Mind you, this area is about 90 per cent Muslim.

READ MORE:  Has Pakatan done enough to persuade rural voters to ditch Umno?

Probably because of GST and hudud, turnout has dropped from 85.5 per cent (in GE13) to 73 per cent this time.

This means some 6300 people of the 45849 voters who cast their ballots in GE13 have stayed away this time.

In the 2013 general election, the BN won the Rompin seat with 66.8 per cent of the total votes cast. Pas polled 33.2 per cent of the votes.

In 2008, it was BN 66.7 per cent vs Pas 33.3 per cent of valid votes cast.

In 2004, BN 65.9 per cent vs Pas 34.1 per cent of valid votes cast.

So we can see, in the last few elections, the BN has polled two thirds of the votes and Pas a third.

My prediction is that Pas will lose votes, which means there is no great support for its hudud push, is there? But the BN too will lose votes as disenchanted voters might not be able to bring themselves to vote for the ruling coalition either, because of the GST and repressive laws.

Rompin-election-results

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9 COMMENTS

  1. There is a 60% chance he will have to strip nake and walk Penang Road but I doubt he will janji ditetapi just like the many promises made by Pakatan DAP, PKR & PAS. Reduced majorities in by election are common. Even though BN MCA did not contest in the stronghold of Karpal Singh, DAP majorities was also reduced very substantially while the table was turnover against DAP in Teluk Intan. .

    The people are getting disillusion with Pakatan DAP & PKR especially the Chinese, Indian and PAS supporters. The turnout should not be more than 70% but then whether its high or low turnout, the parties should not fear if they have the support of the people. Pakatan DAP & PKR knew they are hanging on a shoe string as their support have wane especially with the issue of hudud and how DAP,PKR leaders ponteng during the crucial POTA voting. They knew they could not trust DAP & PKR anymore especially what happen during the past 6 years.

    The Malays are not willing to let UMNO lose and allow PAS-PR to win. With PAS boycotting underground and many PKR Malays experiencing the disease called Anwar-fatigue, they are sick and tired having to prop up this family forever. It will be left to the Chinese to deliver win for Azizah, reinforcing belief that PKR is a party that has only Chinese support, not Malay ones. But as mentioned above, the hudud and POTA issues have diluted DAP & PKR non malay support in Penang.And most important issue is “Can Azizah stretch … between Kajang & Permatang Pauh.“` Don`t you think it will be too fatique for her with the CAT & Azmin having to take turn. Looking at the scenario, BN should win by 300-800 votes with a lower turnout and a swing of just 3000-4000 votes just like in Teluk Intan.

    • ‘Can Azizah stretch … between Kajang & Permatang Pauh.”

      Can the MP of Pekan stretch … between Putrjaya/KL & Pekan together with Dubai, London, Paris or various cities in the US, etc? Don`t you think it will be too fatique for him even with the comfort of flying around in the jet 1Malaysia.

  2. Awang Selamat Ori, well and good. Thanks for sharing about the ABCD, Asalkan Bukan Cap Dacing! I am very relieved.

    I was actually tempted to say that if the Umno-BN, with all its problems in tow, can still wrest back Permatang Pauh from PKR after the MP for Permatang Pauh has been jailed for Sodomy II, with all of its pregnant implications, then we can forget about politics in Malaysia. Yes, the entire country – “dari Perlis sampai lah Sabah” – as the lyrics of Malaysia Berjaya, that stirring patriotic song, epitomized our Merdeka!

    But, brother Awang Selamat Ori, please exercise every caution. Elections and by-elections have been lost due to complacency on the part of the losers. In Permatang Pauh, we see the element of sabotage, a silent campaign on the ground, involving so many interested segments of so many political parties.

    There’s many a slip ‘twixt cup and lip, so the ancient Greeks said. I shall wait April 8 before I can rest easy.

    Meanwhile, God bless my beloved country. I pray that our peoples be spared of as much of the coming pains as I can foresee.

    • bctan ; I think you are like what the Malay say too jujur. Awang is a hardcore PAS supporter. Let me put it this way. Should BN UMNO lose, Pakatan comprising PKR, DAP & PAS will form the govt. As we all know PAS main agenda and motive is hudud and an islamic country. With Pakatan in the govt, you can bet that we shall turn into an islamic state with PKR and PAS members supporting the bills in Parliament. You may say PAS does not have the number. Are you sure. They will still have the number with the biggest opposition UMNO in Parliament, UMNO. If UMNO really lose, do you think they will lose. They will team up with PAS at whatever cost and PAS will be the game changer as DAP are oppose to their agenda. Would DAP insist againt PAS agenda. You bet DAP will go through with whatever PAS said. Don`t you think it will be safer with BN UMNO, Gerakan, MCA, MIC and the 18 coalition partners. Awang just like DAP are playing hide and seek and deception.

      • Yang, the scenario you painted is plausible, but not sustainable as I do not think Umno and Pas can form a stable government on their own. They know it.

        Just look at the figures for foreign investments and monetary outflow. Every time Pas acts up on hudud, the immigrant consultants tell me they experience a sudden influx of applications.

        If ever a pure Umno and Pas government is formed, I know where I am headed. God bless you, brother.

        You can also see that my prediction of a lower majority win for BN-Umno in Rompin has been proven correct. I now expect Pakatan to win in Kepala Batas, with a reduced majority, but not as bad as the one sustained by Umno-BN.

        As I have put it, the electorate is in a state of confusion. It is a state of psychological paralysis,. not as grave as what is suffered after May 13 so it does not call for shock treatment YET. I hope we do not come to that stage. Otherwise you will be labelling me as mulut masin instead of too jujur.

        As for our friend Awang Selamat Ori, I do not think he will ever need to walk the entire stretch of Penang Road naked.

  3. If Pakatan loses Permatang Pauh, I will strip and walk the entire stretch of Penang road naked. No problem, I will deal with the fines and so on.

    Only fools of the first degree will waste their votes on UMNOBaru/BN, and fools of a higher degree will predict a victory for BN.

    Just what had BN done to deserve your votes since May 5th 2013? PR is no angel and they seem quite lost
    but they have secured at least 90% of the Chinese votes! Mujahid Yusoff Rawa spoke to thunderous applause in Bukit Mertajam on Monday night. And it is very clear that 12,000 Chinese votes are with Kak Wan, according to locals. DAP held their 350 tables dinner and all were sold out with thousands lining outside to hear the ceramahs, and the last speaker was “Superman” who spoke for an entire hour, making the crowd nod in approval and applause each time he hits a point!

    Penanti and Seberang Jaya are PKR seats and they should stroll through, leaving the Permatang Pasir seat which belongs to PAS and which also contributed the most majority to DSAI in 2013, how they vote, will they vote, how many per cent coming out to vote is anybody’s guess. But, it is a hive of activities from both sides.

    I was at Kubang Semang, enjoying the nasi kandar besides the mosque and I asked the locals their opinions, they said, whatever happened they will never vote UMNObaru/BN, and one young man with a kopiah, asked me to look at a bill board, ABCD! I asked him what it meant, and he told me laughingly…. Asalkan Bukan Cap Dacing! I asked another lady who will win she said PKR!

    Only people with brains in their toe will predict an UMNOBaru victory! Just what had they done to deserve our votes. Hanya Yang bodoh atau yang tak berapa pandai will make a fool of himself here every so often!

  4. Given the state of the Barisan Nasional and the Pakatan Rakyat, I expect the status quo to be maintained, with BN winning in Rompin and PR winning in Permatang Puah – both with reduced majority. It’s tricky because a low turnout in Permatang Pauh is more than likely to produce a BN win which, to my mind, is most unlikely.

    The status quo result is expected to also reflect the custate of confusion that pervades the electorate in the whole country, Anything stunning is expected to erupt only after the date of the by-election.

  5. Two Political Trader Party fighting for votes.
    1. Hudud without respecting our constitution and their top leader proven failure. The same person lost Kedah and Trengganu. Can this fellow can be leader?

    2.They think they are chosen for life to rule Malaysia 4ever. Don’t say much about this party since everything seditious for them.Can this Party and their warlords can be trusted anymore?

    rajraman. Still wondering how Pakatan and DAP going to bed with their bedfellows PAS by just ignoring Hadi?
    That’s about Politics where Power is corrupt.

  6. Lowering of turnout has nothing to do with GST or hudud. There has always been a lower turnout in by election from the tiger constituency to Teluk Intan and many others. BN will romp through Rompin and should win Permatang Pauh by about 1000 votes

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