Sokongan Melayu BN merudum kepada 18%: Invoke

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Undi Melayu BN jatuh merudum dari 41.1% (Disember) kepada hanya 18.1% (April) membayangkan peralihan besar pengundi Melayu, mengikut kajiselidik Invoke terkini.

Menurut Rafizi Ramli:

Maklumat am

  • Kajiselidik dijalankan melalui telefon oleh penemuramah (call agents) yang bercakap dengan pengundi yang dipilih secara rawak oleh sistem computer.
  • Kajiselidik disertai oleh 1,961 pengundi berdaftar yang maklumat mereka telah disahkan sama dengan daftar Pengundi.
  • Kajiselidik berjalan di antara 12 April 2018 hingga 23 April 2018.
  • Dapatan kajiselidik melalui proses “weightage” untuk memastikan ia mewakili strata pengundi (stratified) iaitu mewakili setiap kumpulan pengundi mengikut kaum, umur dan latar belakang.
  • Margin of error adalah 2.21%

Pola sokongan pengundi Melayu

  • Undi Melayu BN jatuh merudum dari 41.1% (Disember) kepada hanya 18.1% (April) membayangkan peralihan besar pengundi Melayu.
  • Undi Melayu di kalangan pengundi yang telah membuat keputusan di antara BN, PH dan Pas hampir sama.
  • 50.7% responden memberi jawapan “Tidak pasti” atau “Undi rahsia” yang membayangkan mereka pengundi atas pagar.

Pola sokongan pengundi Cina

  • Undi Cina BN jatuh merudum ke paras 9.3% dalam bulan April 2018.
  • 66.3% pengundi Cina menyatakan mereka “atas pagar” walaupun besar kemungkinan mereka penyokong PH.
  • Pola sokongan yang sama ditunjukkan oleh pengundi Cina: tahap sokongan kepada BN jatuh merudum sebanyak 50% dalam tempoh lima bulan.

Pola sokongan pengundi India

  • Sokongan pengundi India kepada BN merudum ke paras 18.7% berbanding sokongan kepada PH (32.9%).
  • Ini kali pertama sejak Invoke menjejaki tahap sokongan pengundi bermula Januari 2017 yang menyaksikan sokongan pengundi India kepada PH lebih tinggi berbanding sokongan kepada BN.
  • Angka menunjukkan peralihan undi yang besar kepada PH di kalangan pengundi India berbanding sokongan kepada BN di saat-saat akhir, yang akan membawa kesan besar kepada banyak kerusi-kerusi marginal.
READ MORE:  Will the RoS decision to disband Bersatu return to haunt BN?

Profail pengundi atas pagar

  • Jumlah pengundi atas pagar meningkat mendadak dua minggu sebelum pilihanraya, membayangkan peralihan pengundi setiap kaum lari dari BN.
  • Pecahan pengundi atas pagar mengikut kaum: Melayu (50.7%), Cina (66.3%) dan India (46.9%)

Profail pengundi Pas

Hanya 32.6% dari pengundi Pas adalah penyokong tegar Pas. Selebihnya, sebanyak 32.1% ada potensi akan mengundi PH dalam senyap.

Kesimpulan

  • Perbezaan sokongan antara BN, PH dan Pas di kalangan pengundi Melayu yang telah buat keputusan adalah tidak besar (sekitar 1% ke 3% sahaja).
  • Undi Melayu BN telah jatuh merudum berbanding enam bulan lalu dan kini berada dalam lingkungan undi Melayu PH.
  • Di kalangan pengundi semua kaum, pilihan Perdana Menteri yang paling atas adalah Tun Mahathir/PH (29.9%) mengatasi Dato’ Seri Najib/BN (23.8%).
  • Majoriti pengundi (40.5%) yakin kerajaan persekutuan akan bertukar tangan, berbanding hanya 27.6% yang percaya BN akan kembali berkuasa.

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47 Comments on "Sokongan Melayu BN merudum kepada 18%: Invoke"

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Tan Yong Hua
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Tan Yong Hua

Lee Chong Wei please stick to your training plan, and not campaign for BN if you want to prolong your limited playing days. Sport men should stay away from politics.

tunglang
Guest
tunglang

Can he be like Nicol David???
Btw, Nicol’s father looks like Anil!

tunglang
Guest
tunglang

🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 Sounds like Nicol’s dad laughing!!!

Qu WK
Guest
Qu WK

BN leaders are exploiting LCW, but LCW got no choice but to pay back.

Ho Wan Lai
Guest
Ho Wan Lai

LCW can never retire with right conscience despite the wealth accumulated. Can bet the moment he retires from competitive badminton, general public will have less ‘kam cheng’ with him. Just look at ex footballer towkay Dato Soh Chin Aim after his involvement in Melaka politics.

Syamil
Guest
Syamil

LCW should have hung up his racquet and contest as a MCA candidate.

Freddie
Guest
Freddie

Malaysia will lose in Thomas Cup because LCW is distracted by politics.

Now we can no longer support him and Tony AirAsia.

Rusli
Guest
Rusli

Hidup Mahathir!

Song
Guest
Song
Want to share this WhatsApp message I received this morning: Somewhere this week, everybody enjoys the free food and prizes provided. However, they understand that these are stolen money from national wealth and taxes. They definitely know where to put their “X” on the D day 9 May. Chinese and Malay too have already attain politics enlightenment in Penang, just left to be seen elsewhere and hopefully they can see for themselves the environment in Penang now compare with the BN rule some 10 years ago. During the last GE in Penang it was offered sumptuous dinner and lucky draws… Read more »
Mah HS
Guest
Mah HS
Daim said BN was having trouble addressing cost-of-living issues and the opposition was using this opportunity to blame spiralling inflation on Putrajaya’s poor handling of 1MDB. He said some BN leaders are telling voters that the cost-of-living in Malaysia was still cheaper in Singapore, which would not placate voters. “A lot of villagers are complaining about GST…If you go to the kampung and say inflation is only three percent, I think you will likely be chased out,” he said. He said that although BN believed that BR1M has reduced cost-of-living pressures, the cash handouts was not able to counteract the… Read more »
Tan Yong Hua
Guest
Tan Yong Hua

Daim is the prophet of doom for BN. May his predictions come true. Daim is known to be cold and calculative in his analysis of things. And so far he has been proven right. No wonder Umno is getting nervous.

Qu WK
Guest
Qu WK

More BN oldies are expected to jump ship when they notice tsunami rakyat is happening.

tunglang
Guest
tunglang

Hishammuddin Hussein, what are you waiting for?
Remember to keep your dad’s honour intact!

Velu
Guest
Velu

He has tainted his family name.

Song
Guest
Song

RM1500 minimum wage?
KLCI shivered with >1% drop!

Employers will hire fewer employees.
Employees can expect higher workload!

tunglang
Guest
tunglang

Pledges can change, more so after they get your votes!
Jangan di tipu tiap-tiap 5 tahun!

tunglang
Guest
tunglang

Promised a Merc! What opportunity cost would that otherwise benefit the poor & kampung folks in terms of amenities?

tunglang
Guest
tunglang
Dr M: I’ve never seen such strong Chinese support for me https://www.malaysiakini.com/news/422541 GE14 | Dr Mahathir Mohamad may have been prime minister for 22 years but he had never seen the kind of Chinese support he is getting today. In an interview with Singapore’s Chinese newspaper Shin Min Daily, Mahathir, who now leads the Pakatan Harapan opposition coalition, related the positive reaction he had been getting from the Chinese community. “I have never seen such strong Chinese support, very strong. Nowadays, they even shout ‘Long live Tun’ in Chinese. “They want to shake hands and all that. I think the… Read more »
Mah HS
Guest
Mah HS

Good video to watch:
https://youtu.be/G80V69Gjlo8

Johan Khun Pana
Guest
Johan Khun Pana

Most important is that they are willing to vote and to make a real change.
I don’t mind taking a gamble by voting for Dr.Mahathir, even though he is an ex-umno leader.
Hate this man? Not this time.
The above survey really does not matter. The Malays are too sentimental and can be wishy-washy.(unable to make their mind)
Most important is for Sabah and Sarawak to say AYE to Harapan.

Song
Guest
Song
Former minister Rafidah Aziz has likened Malaysia to a large house, which provides shelter to its landlord – citizens- of all races and creed. However, she warned that the house is falling apart and infested with pests. And she blamed the current contractor, caretaker prime minister Najib Abdul Razak and his workers, for its deplorable state. Therefore, Rafidah said it is imperative that BN’s five-year contract is terminated and the task is passed to someone with a proven track record like Pakatan Harapan chairperson Dr Mahathir Mohamad. Calling on the people not to be sentimental about ending the old contract,… Read more »
Tan Yong Hua
Guest
Tan Yong Hua
I would like to appeal to all old and thinking BN supporters who have conscience to come out and embrace CHANGE. The nation has been stricken with a serious disease that is massive corruption. And this level of corruption is not a small and one that can be ignored. It is massive and so massive that we have been labelled internationally as a “Kleptocracy”. BN members who are true to the nation’s welfare and goodness, be strong in your sentiments and struggle, embrace change like what Rais Yatim has said. We should all embrace his advice. BN members please act… Read more »
Timothy Selvaraj
Guest
Timothy Selvaraj

I remember at the last GE Anil was very prolific in updating new information on contesting candidates. But this time Anil is rather subdued (due to pressure from external forces?) and only has new posting once every 3-4 days. What has happened? Maybe Jeff Ooi should return to blogging to give us updates on political happenings in Penang.

Tan Yong Hua
Guest
Tan Yong Hua

The Chinese president Xi Jinping led a lecture today at the Great Hall of People in Beijing to honor Communist ideology founder Karl Marx’s 200th birthday. Is BN-Umno sending a MCA delegate to join in the celebration to support PRC’s activities?

PRC is still a communist country. Borrowing money from them comes with Hugh risks. Malaysia should remember that Umno always scare them with the atrocities of Komunis eg. The Bukit Kepong incident.

tunglang
Guest
tunglang

Watch: Penang CM helps woman carry large bag at airport
https://malaysia.yahoo.com/news/watch-penang-cm-helps-woman-020614968.html

Sometimes, you have to love your CM for his kindness & unassuming humility.

Clever Voter
Guest
Clever Voter

Harapan struggled to even fund extra posters and buntings. At every ceramah hats were passed around for donations and such actions were genuine. Harapan could not even afford luxuries of giving away food and umbrellas. People attended these functions on their own, and they simply could not afford to ferry outsiders. Perhaps Najib got mistaken with his occasions at Stadium Bukit Jalil, hundreds of kids were brought in. Someone needs to remind him.

shriek
Guest
shriek

Jib can AA asking his empat sekawan tony. With lee, fly like shuttle .

tunglang
Guest
tunglang
Hey Blue politicians, how do you know what we want, how we feel, what are our expectations & aspirations? Don’t just throw cash or make run-of-the-mill opportunistic promises that may end up us Rakyat paying more GST than before. Or zero subsidies. Your “Manifesto Save Penang” can be written & printed by anyone in high school but without substance, without the real world of financing, much less in a GST-ed country in distress. Taking a leaf out of our recent dissatisfaction doesn’t mean nicely worded solutions (from the blue ocean) in print are what we will swallow – hook, line… Read more »
Bigjoe
Guest
Bigjoe

What really should worry the left is the stubborn estimated 18% Malay vote for PAS. This vote base is the basis of their arrogance. A UMNO-PAS union is inevitable because they both need it. We are heading to clash in religion in this country that will year it apart.

glissantia
Guest
glissantia

Fundamentalism can now be determined with around 72% accuracy by studying a person’s brain structures. The factors include (a) stress in early childhood (b) early programming (c) injury to CNS. In USA, many will support Trump regardless of what he says or does, even against their interests, as he is aware; this is related to their religious beliefs and sense of White privilege.

Tan Yong Hua
Guest
Tan Yong Hua

Our civil servants must know and differentiate the good (Tun Mahathir) from the bad (Najib). They must know, because they make decisions every day. And if they cannot tell the difference, they should not work as civil servants.

Surely the one who steals, robs and pirate the rakyat’s money is the bad one. That’s real stealing, man. The US DoJ said it’s “misappropriation of 1MDB funds and money-laundering”. What else is misappropriation if not stealing? And billions placed in personal bank accounts. How to believe it is Arab donation if you can exercise your brain power.

Norman
Guest
Norman

The key word today is 1758 – Together Ubah!

Syamil
Guest
Syamil
If the BN government is allowed to retain power on May 9 and they continue spending at this unchecked rate, estimates place government debt at RM1 trillion by 2021. This country will be run into the ground, a failed state and made bankrupt, by those looking to enrich themselves – as they live the high life, while the rakyat is made to pay off the country’s debt. Enough of leaders who can stuff themselves with quinoa while our shopping carts grow smaller every day. Another five years of a BN government will send our country into the abyss, and it… Read more »
tunglang
Guest
tunglang

All aboard the sinking mothership?
https://www.malaysiakini.com/news/423153
TMJ is half correct – change the captain BUT the mothership is sinking!
4 more days to reckoning & day of judgement after that.

Bigjoe
Guest
Bigjoe

If 50% is undecided, decisions will be highly emotional. It all depend deep biases and how emotional they can get the voters. The trend do not tell. 1MDB is not going to change things. Pakatan and Mahathir especially has to raise it a notch. Simple one liners and ideas is what will win it.

Johan Khun Pana
Guest
Johan Khun Pana

news from CBS

Ho Wan Lai
Guest
Ho Wan Lai

GE14 $ to decide the nation future???

glissantia
Guest
glissantia

Let us all bow down to the words of wisdom from the Empire.

Ab Rahaman Bin Kassim
Guest

Rafizi as normal with all sorts of bull … rethorics .yes he is against PAS but what he said likened to a street dweller of a lower rank educationist.

Engineer
Guest
Engineer

This is just another syiok sendiri aka psychological warfare aka fake news from Invoke. Why? Because Invoke is a PKR organization.

shriek
Guest
shriek

Dummo has even better shock sendiri. 2 sets of laws, warlords, aca, ec, mata, half past six judicial and pirates from celebes and awang baba n forty thieves.. Former cm oredi say dominace too.

tunglang
Guest
tunglang

zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz…

shriek
Guest
shriek

U from saga seed? Why this time dummo and ah kal vin did not mention red beans? Clearly entrapment by own anti freak news act. Why this election dummo not even a drop of red beans?

tunglang
Guest
tunglang

Now is the time to shiok sendiri or cry sendiri post GE14!