Update: Postal votes could be crucial in Bagan Pinang. According to the chart here, Pusasda (Pusat Latihan Asas Tentera Darat) Kem Si Rusa falls under this state assembly seat with close to 2,000 postal voters. In March last year, Harakah reported an alleged irregularity involving a Bagan Pinang postal voter here.
Bagan Pinang Adun Azman Md Noor (BN) passed away in Seremban, according to a tweet from Khairykj.
In the 2008 general election, the first-term assembly member won the seat with a 2,333-vote majority over his Pas rival, winning by a 6,430-4,097 margin.
That was a drop from the 4,411 BN majority in the 2004 general election.
It falls under the Teluk Kemang parliamentary seat held by PKR.
For the second time in eight by-elections (including Bagan Pinang) in the peninsula since the 2008 general election, a by-election will be held in a BN seat. Pas had overturned a 628-vote BN majority in the Kuala Terengganu parliamentary seat to win the seat by 2,631 votes in a by-election held in January.
So will it be 8-1 or 7-2 after this by-election?
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This will be one hell of a dirty bye election!
Maybe in the land of Matriarchy as 9Negeri PAS or PKR might look for a WOMAN candidate !!!
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Whenever Postal Vote is involved , a sure-win for UMNO.
couple with split vote among the Indian (when will they ever learn) ,this is the time for their first long-thirst victory.
Victory guaranteed for UMNO , like it or not.
You ask for it.
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In Teluk Kemang by election just after 1999 general election, Ruslan Kasim of PKR got majority of the postal votes… it’s due to BN’s Indian candidate… Army’s (alleged) “guideline” or rule of thumb in voting is (believed to be)… if a malay vs Malay.. vote BN… if BN is a non Malay, Opposition is a Malay, vote opposition… And other ranks’ military personal vote is (allegedly) monitored or voted by their officers… My brother is an army officer (he is in that camp in PD..) when I asked him on this, he just laugh and never answered my question, which explains itself…
In Bagan Pinang, there are some camps.. PUSASDA postal votes only consists of recruit instructors and recruits don;t vote as they will be there for only 6 months at most…
then there is Kem Garrison and IPDA – Institut Pengurusan Darat… which are instructors too…
There is Army Musium staffs too but they are not that many…
the bulk of the postal votes I believe are from Artillery…
based on information I get, I did made some calculations with some assumptions… BN will win with reduced majority… of 1980 votes…
Total voters -14,000
vote cast – 11,000 = 78.57% tournouts…
Postal votes – 4900 = 35% all vote for BN
Non Malay – 34% 30% will vote for PR, 4% vote for BN
Malay 66% – including postal votes… without postal votes = 31%…
of which 11% vote PR and 20% vote BN
lets sum up…
BN :
35% postal votes
20% Malay votes
4% non Malay votes
total = 59% 0.59 X 11,000 = 6490
PR (PAS) :
11% Malay votes
30% non Malay votes
total = 41% = 0.41 X 11,000 = 4510
majority for BN = 6490 – 4510 = 1980 majority which is a reduced majority… whoch is a moral victory for PR/PAS…
so for PR to take this seat.. they need some 10% of 35% postal vote and if it can, some percentage of civilian Malay votes too from BN….
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Hanya Iblis dan UMNO yang kebal di dunia ni, mereka dijamin bebas melakukan kerosakan di dunia dan tidak akan diambil tindakan, sama seperti pemerintah yang tidak akan mendakwa ahli UMNGOK yang membuat provokasi dan corrupt di dunia ni….
mereka tetap menerima hukuman Allah di akhirat kelak….
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Yes. Postal Threat.Like it or not majority always go to them.They will retain the seat.
The reduced majority will be considered a consolation win for the opposition the way it happened in Manek Urai.
So far opposition only won at their own ground.So this time is their chance to capitalise on home ground advantage. Moreover they have a better record to show as they proceed to the south.
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HINDRAF shud help further democracy in BAGAN PINANG by distributing VCDs of cow head demo by UMNO division n branch heads n Hishamuddin giving press conference flanked by the UMNO extremists 2 EACH N EVERY INDIAN VOTER
DAP shud explain
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The cow head factor, the dialogue that was not a dialogue but showing the true colour of some extremists, the Negeri MB factor, the Khairy factor, the Teoh factor, the PM factor, the Hisham factor and many others factors will favour Pakatan. Pakatan has to work on 9000 votes if all turn up to vote (which will not happen). If less than 10,000 turn out to vote plus the postal votes, it may not favour PR. If 12000 turn out to vote, it may favour PR. BN will make sure that 5000 postal votes are secured.PR still has the chance with the non-postal voters. The candidate again matters. Hindraf should stay out. Please. Let PAS field a candidate. PAS is favoured by all races now – as shown in Permatang Pasir. If this trend remains, PAS will win with a small majority. DAP and PKR have to work hard to convince the Chinese and Malay voters.Hindraf should work with PR and win the Indian votes. I give 5.5-4.5 in favour of Pakatan.
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All the projections assume Indian voters have only two options. Indian voters actually have 3 options – BN/PR/Abstain. If the Indian voters abstained, this will be a sure lose for PR.
It is time PR updated their calculations. Indians have 3 options.
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BN (allegedly) manipulated postal votes all this while. What is stopping you(PR) from doing the same thing. Understand the mechanism. Work out your plans. There is always a loophole. Test your methods in preparation of GE-13. Or is it easier to say we lose because of postal votes?
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