Before this general election, for the BN to lose power, I felt it would have to suffer a large plunge in its share of the popular vote of around 10 percentage points.
The share of votes for the opposition would have to rise from just over 50% to touch around 60%. Looked at another way, the BN’s share of the popular vote would need to dip from below 50% to below 40%. Either way, it would mean the BN would have to suffer a plunge of around 10 percentage points in its share of the popular vote. It was that simple.
Looking at the trend from 1995 general election to the 1999 election when the BN share plunged by 8 percentage points and then the trend from 2004 to 2008, when the BN share plunged by 12 percentage points, I felt that a 10% drop was always going to be possible, given the host of issues in this election (GST, higher cost of living, 1MDB and Felda corruption scandals) plus of course the Mahathir factor.
And sure enough, the BN’s share of the vote plunged from 47.4% to 36.4%, a drop of 11%.
In terms of the percentage share of popular votes (based on Malay Mail figures):
47.3 – PH
2.2 – Warisan
0.4 – Batu independent
49.9 Total PH and allies
13.7 – Pas, Star and other independents
63.6 – Total opposition popular vote
36.4 – BN
100.0 – Total popular vote share
The thing is, BN’s plus Pas’ share of the popular vote would be close to 50%, so there could be some thinking about formalising their alliance in the north and the east.
Meanwhile, we will watch what happens in Kedah and Perak, where the situation is not so straightforward – somewhat hung.
All I can say, is that the people of Malaysia made it all this possible. Congratulations!