A survey has indicated that Perak would fall to the BN if snap polls were held now – but I am confused.
According to Malaysiakini:
A study by the independent think-tank Ilham Centre has shown that public support has swung back to BN, cemented with the recent court rulings in its favour.
In a poll of 1,031 people in the Kuala Sepetang state constituency last month, the centre surveyed Malays (59.96%), Chinese (31.67%), Indians (8.34%) and ‘Others’ (0.03%) to mirror the Perak population closely.
“More than 55 percent of those surveyed said that BN would win if there were to be a state election now,” said Ilham Centre’s managing director Mohd Azlan Zainal…
Now if just 53 per cent of the Malays (who make up 59 per cent of the respondents) recognise the BN government while at least two thirds of the non-Malays (who make up the remainder of the respondents) think the BN government is not legitimate, I don’t see how you can arrive at the conclusion that the BN can win the next state election. In fact, it would mean that the majority of all those with an opinion do not recognise the BN government in Perak.
Am I missing something here? Someone help, I am confused.
I am not majoring in statistics nor mathematics, but common sense said BN will lose! So Bring it ON!
And moreover this is done within One Kuala Sepetang state constituency. Anyone has the last POLL result for Kuala Sepetang state constituency?
Let compare the swing factor.
Regards
Shiok Guy
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Please do not be riled by this independent survey. It was only a survey based on certain samplings in terms of ethnicity, education and occupation.
At best it remains a so-called independent survey. As Nizar had strongly rebutted the survey at the Forum, Zambry and/or Najib can bring it on, but I am very certain they would certainly not!
Cheng Poh Heng
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If BN really thinks so, then bring it on! Let’s have an election! That’s the only sure-fire way to find out, not through any polls being carried out, for it’s no real indicator. The ONLY real indicator of who have more support is through the ballot boxes. So bring it on! NOW! If they dare to at all.
BUBAR DUN PERAK!
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If they are that confident I dare them to petition PM Najib to hold fresh elections in Perak now.
Let the PEOPLE decide once and for all. Then we’ll know for sure whether their conclusions are misplaced are not!!
dpp
We are all of 1 race, the Human Race
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Anil,
Have you read the latest Star report on hotel rooms at KKB ?
Are you planning to cover the election? If you are stuck for accommodation, e-mail me. There is room in my house, two miles from the town centre.
Slim.
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Thanks for the kind offer, Slim. I am not sure if I can make it though.
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OK, let me know when you finally decide. The offer is also open to other SERIOUS bloggers who are covering the nomination day and elections too.
Please e-mail me and I shall send you full details of my place, streamyx connection and so on.
Slim.
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From some of the polls results published, it seems Indians in this country are more supportive of Najib and BN than even the Malays.
I wonder if this is really true.
I also wonder what made them so satisfied that more than 30,000 of them took to the streets in KL in 2007?
Are the Indians really so much better off today than when Abdullah Badawi ruled the land?
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Utter rubbish. Need I say again?
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A stupid survey that has no academic value. The sample is flawed. The number is not representative. This is not a survey at all. Why hoodwink the people who know nothing about research?
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I think the Perak gomen is legal but that doesn’t make it right.
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The government is up to their sandiwara again. The Health Minister Liow is now free to play the lives of the Malaysian people again. They are distributing masks again and has promised the nation a press conference every Wednesday. They are going to hype up the H!N! again — i fear for the lives of innocent people who are going to be vaccinated….
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BN might as well hold the state election simultaneously with Sarawak state election, to split the man power and machineries of Pakatan. If BN really can win both state election then Pakatan’s road to Putrajaya will be a long winding road.
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I kind of agree with Gerakan K on this.
Why should Zambry or Najib call for a snap election when both the Sultan and the courts has legitimised the BN govt ?
Even if there is a snap election is called, PR will never accept the result as long as they don’t get to form the govt by making all sorts of irrational accusations.
Their thuggish behaviour in the Perak DUN is a reflection of their mentality where they think it is their birthright to rule the state.
I am not sure about the cerdibility of the result of this survey or the organisation which conducted it. But I would say that given the close results of GE12, PR will definitely lose any snap elections in Perak.
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Their thuggish behaviour is better than BN and Najib condoning corruption by enticing corruptible people into their fold to form a government
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Usually Malaysian TVs will censor any BN thuggish behavior in parliament or state assembly.
I’m quite disagree with the way PR aduns behave. They should just walk out after Perak Regent leaving the hall IF they do not recognize the BN speaker.
To deploy police personnel in the assembly is a gross violation of assembly power.
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We need a wake up call for Pakatan, especially Lim Guan Eng. Lim Guan Eng still continue to show his foolishness by playing up the RM100 aid scheme for senior citizens for cheap publicity. I wonder whether he realise or not that he has set a bad precedent for BN to follow. Don’t forget BN still control the federal government and all the public fund. What if BN decide to follow the foot step of Lim Guan Eng by throwing out our money as welfare handout to compete for supports? Does Lim Guan Eng has the financial resources to match? What a stupid CM !
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Ong
I concur. Penang has a proud tradition of CMs with high IQs and strong business acumen. However, the whole administration of LGE is a blight on Penang. He has neither the IQ nor the leadership qualities to be a good CM. More worringly, he has learnt the worse of BN’s excesses in terms of political patronage, populist policies and playing racial cards.
I am truly ashamed to be a Penangite.
If LGE is not removed as CM in the next election, Penang will never regain its prominence. It will … just turn into a backwater like Kelantan.
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Penang was or was nearly turn into a backwater until DAP PR & LGE come along. Getting rid of zero kpi KTK & Gerakan was the best thing that has happened to Penang.
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Penang has a proud tradition of CMs with high IQs
I beg to differ !
Penang had ONE intelligent Chief Minister, and his name is Tun Lim Chong Eu.
Other than Tun Lim, the others, sorry la, takde otak (Lim Guan Eng) atau otak sudah rosak (as in the case of that political eunuch).
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Ah Soon,
Your comments had become very personal of late against the CM. Whatever good points you want to put forward, are sadly overshadowed by the “hate” you have for the CM.
What LGE did was the right thing with regards to caring after the senior citizens, regardless of race and political affiliations. And mind you, this exercise has serious implications on the future understandings of good governance and expectations of people of Penang. Infact, the Federal Government should implement a scheme whereby all senior citizens will have a minimum of RM200 credited into their accounts monthly for them to just survive!
RM 100 may not mean anything to you right now, as perhaps, you are still able to make a living, just think about those who are not able to do so. It is small things like this that touches the hearts, not big announcements that never materializes and huge portion of the announcements, if at all it materializes, end up lining the pockets of politicians!
I was at the centres watching the distribution of the said RM100 in Bayan Lepas (Maybank) and I was at the Chowrasta market area, and just hear what the old folks said. Some were in tears, some said they had never had a RM100 notes with them in their lives! To you, you may say this is a blatant lie, but, just visit and hear all those touching stories from the horses mouths! Look at those aged souls, tears in their eyes when they received the aid. Another comment, I wish to share with you, is the efficiency in which the aid was distributed. There was lines waiting in Penang city centre, but, there was so many volunteers assisting the old folks to ensure that there is minimum hassle for them to receive their RM100. And some comments from the old folks were,”it is faster than having a sex session”. That showed efficiency!
And to people (certain BN politicians), they know deep in their hearts, the impact of the distribution of aid to the old folks had touched the hearts of Penangnites! They can say what they want, but, they never did assist the old folks during their time, did they? They (neglected) the old folks, they (allegedly) drove them from the city centre to “faraway” places like Farlim, Paya Terubong when they were in power. Just what had they done for the senior citizens? THN has the guts to say it was a waste of public funds, just what a stupid statement from a sour grape who knew he had lost it all. They know this will be the talks of many in kopitiams throughout the State for many many more weeks to come. The sad fact is, THN and Azhar, you all just did not bother, did not care to do it when you had the chance. You all conveniently forgot those who voted for you and thought it was your divine rights to rule, now you are thought this lesson, … ! And to Gerakan, go fly kite, wanting to report the above matter to MACC. Go and do it! Is this the best you gotta offer? Teng Hock Nan, please discuss with your brother in law, Ah Khoon, what to do for the betterment of Penangnites. At least it took someone from outside Penang to understand the feelings and to show to all what a good Government could do. UMNO Baru/BN you cannot go on hiding, the people are smart enough now, not to listen blindly to whatever you crow!
Ah Soon. just visit the payout centres during the second round of exercise. Just watch for yourself how contented the old folks are! It is the responsibility of the Government to take care of the Rakyat, but, BN not only did not, but, neglected them so much that you can see so many old folks in the inner city area who wanders around with nothing to do and nothing to look forward to.
Just be present in Nibong Tebal, during the next payout, and you will see many who are happy with the Governments appreciation. To many, it is not the money, more so, their thanks to be appreciated by the State Government. Gerakan, UMNO Baru can fold, if they continue to criticize the efforts of PR to assist and appreciate the old folks.
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(Many) UMNO BN schemes even though it may be for the poor has gone into the pocket of UMNO cronies for the past 52 years. If LGE is stupid, at least his stupidity is sincere in that the RM100.00 has gone into the pockets of 82,000 senior citizen and not into the pockets of their cronies like UMNO & BN. Would you call that foolhardy. I don`t think so. At least he can stand up to the coalition partners like Zahrain and TTBeng unlike zero KPI KTK who is subservient to UMNO. He could not called himself a Malaysian first less so a Chinese. Either way he cannot answer to that question posed by LKS.
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Can Lim Guan Eng discloses how much FDI in Penang for 2009?
Handout to older people may not the ideal policy, but I think it’s still much better than full blanket subsidies for sugar, petrol, etc.
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never call a person stupid when he or she know things that you don’t… so Ong Eu Soon.. if you are so bright, why aren’t you the CM? just because you don’t agreed with Mr Lim’s policy, it doesn’t make him stupid…
if election is held now, bn will win as they will pour so much money to make it happen… if the election is Fair, don’t say Perak election, the bn will even lose the GE…
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Zuan,
Ong Eu Soon can’t become a CM because he is no leader. Worst still, he’s no team player. He’s not even close to Tan Chee Koon, the fame oppositionist.
Worst thing is Ong Eu Soon didn’t stand for state assembly & yet still wanna complain. I suggest he stand in Air Putih against CM LGE in the next GE
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Go la, try election in Perak if BN media already so sure….test la. You think rakyat are stupid … kah? We know la, the BN media want to spin for support. This Zambry… Please ask him is he Malaysian 1st … Equal rights!!! We all belong to the same race, the HUMAN RACE!!!
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I’m hoping Anil will make an article of the promise by LGE (I just read it in TMI) to give all senior citizens RM1000 annually. I’ve been making a similar suggestion for years – only I think it should be a similar amount of money to ALL Malaysian adults.
Suggesting that BN has more money is missing the point. BN by its very nature would NEVER choose to do the same thing. Malaysia’s problems are indivisible from BN’s problems: strangling the free flow of money and enterprise is how BN enriches itself and clings to power. For true reform, you have to tackle the massive disparities in the share of Malaysia’s wealth and opportunities to benefit from it. Put simply, you have to give poor people money. The simplest way to put money in the hands of the poor is to give everybody money without subjecting them to any kind of divisive (wealthy versus needy) test.
The other reason why I’ve always supported this idea for Pakatan Rakyat is that they cannot communicate with voters because of media oppression by BN. Money talks. There are some of us who like to consume rhetoric and nod in time with a fist thumping a lectern, but to a lot of Malaysia’s rural folks – even if they hear the big words – it’s just a lot of noise. A promise to give everyone money without a test (or second best a simple test like ‘over 60′) is something voters will listen to and understand.
The very best part of this idea, from the point of view of a cash-strapped underdog, is that it absolutely will not cost them one sen unless they get into power. If they get into power, it’s an immediate and very visible improvement to the history of abuse and unaccountability in public spending.
I don’t know why they didn’t do it sooner. Perhaps they were waiting for me to stop suggesting it first B-p
For the money-grubbing, stingy, cling-to-money-all-the-way-to-the-grave types among us who spit when they say ‘welfare’, I think you’re deeply confused. Poor people can’t eat money and they won’t be burying it in a hole under their beds. They’ll be taking it straight to their nearest shops to buy the things they couldn’t previously. That’s an effective stimulus to small businesses in poor areas that would otherwise be difficult to arrange without accusations of patronage.
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Sean,
LGE’s RM1000 scheme to the poor is a copy from Singapore. In fact, it’s part of DAP alternative budget. To make all Malaysians the stakeholder of Malaysia. Of course, I always hope that LGE can embark on the ambitious HDB style programme just like those in Singapore.
It’s popular. Tell you what! If LGE’s state government got the guts & the money & run the public housing programme a big success, DAP just like its predecessor, PAP in Singapore, rule Penang in perpetuity.
Sean,
If only, hands can be lay on the EPF & not used for bailouts…..Hmm…..
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I don’t know of any credible polling organizaton in Malaysia. Most of the time, the sample is too small and there is no scientific mechanism in their selection. Are they polling most likely voters or people who live there? How many % are BN friendly adn how many are PR friendly. Until we got a good feel of the base selection, the results are pretty much useless.
Once they get their polling result, they don’t have good statisticians to interpret the results. Another product of the Malaysian education system.
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The most stupid are people like the MCA delegates who chose a tainted and sex scandal person… to be a President
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I tend to think that the RM100 is very well received by the people of Penang because appreciation of the aged should be a practice set by the government as a good example for others to follow.
Moreover, the money is from the results of CAT programs implemented by the State government where an honest and transparent government gave rise to a reasonable surplus over the past 2 years.
It is far better to put money in the hands of our senior folks than to place them into the hands of some BN/UMNO cronies.
If the federal government can give money to our senior citizens instead of passing them to cronies by dubious means, I believe this will also be well received by the majority.
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Wira,
Call it a Thank You Note. Or Penang Peoples’ Share. For all the sacrifices of older generations have made for us
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Bribery is the more correct term.
CAT again ??? There is CAT anymore ??? OK, if there is CAT, where the exco’s minutes regarding Kg Buah Pala demolition ???
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Gerakan K.
Apalah, you punya KPI Minister and Chairman of Gerakan Malaysia, cannot answer a simple question when asked, “Is he a Malaysian first, Chinese second”? He had to be warned by the Deputy Speaker from beating round the bush. Ai yoh, so embarassinglah. If he says, Malaysian first, he is against UMNO Baru, which we all know, he is very scared! If he says, he is Chinese first, he will be (criticised) by the Malays, Indians, Kadazans, Ibans, Muruts, Bidayoh and so on. If it is not real of the 1Malaysia slogan, then do not promote it, right? Never knew Ah Khoon is so hypocritical, also like his brother in law Teng Hock Nan. Gerakan K, at least is steadfast…! … these two in laws, trying to fool Malaysians with the 1Malaysia slogan!
Cheers bro!
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Zambry,
What are u waiting for?
Take the advice from this Ilham guy and go and see your Sultan and get the assembly dissolved !!!
Sure the BN has the support of the Rakyat…
Get your UMNO Blogs including the Racist Utusan to spin this piece of wonderful news.
Also get Ibrahim Ali …,Zul…, Zahrain…, Hee… and finally the China Dolls lovers who had illicit SEX / Khalwat to campaign for BN!!!
Sure BN will get an absolute majority !!
And dont forget to include Gerakan K into Exco !!
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Oh my good, Devan !!!
you can read my mind already. Yes, please reserve a seat for me in the Exco. But there is no snap election in Perak. I have to wait next GE.
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http://thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?file=/2010/4/3/nation/5990278
Saturday April 3, 2010
PICC project to go ahead
By CHRISTINA CHIN
sgchris@thestar.com.my
GEORGE TOWN: The proposed RM50mil Penang International Convention Centre (PICC) in Relau will go ahead as planned even if the Penang Municipal Council (MPPP) has to fork out the money.
Council president Patahiyah Ismail, speaking at a press conference yesterday, said although it would be better if the project was funded by the private sector, the council would still carry on without it.
Chief Minister Lim Guan Eng, who was also present, said some in the media had tried to make it seem like the council was at loggerheads with the state on the construction of the PICC.
“We want this project to go on. There is a possibility we will re-tender the project because we want to make sure we get the best deal,” he said.
The project, which was proposed by Lim, is embroiled in controversy and several quarters had voiced their concern that the huge expenditure would result in the council becoming insolvent.
Engineer Tan Seng Hai who had initiated an online petition (www.petitiononline.com/picc2010/petition.html) had said that the council risked insolvency if it went ahead with the project.
As at yesterday, 640 had signed the petition.
Among the comments were for the state to “stop wasting the rakyat’s money” and to “justify why public funds are being used”.
On a separate matter, Lim, who is also DAP secretary-general, denied any knowledge of a senior party leader being investigated over alleged involvement in several deals involving the state government and private companies.
Malaysian Anti-Corruption Commission director of investigations Mustafar Ali was quoted on Thursday as saying that the commission had received some new information on the case and was monitoring the politician and his associates.
An English daily had reported that “a lot of dirt would be exposed once investigations go full swing”.
Lim said the party would take immediate action if the allegation was proven to be true.
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Japanese are doing it, why can’t Penang?
http://eming.com/en/sightseeing-medical-check-up-tourism-targets-wealthy-chinese/
Sightseeing + Medical Check Up Tourism Targets Wealthy Chinese
April 6, 2010
By MasPoster
As the economy of China grows, the number of wealthy Chinese who can afford overseas holidays and top medical care also grows.
Japan, a close neighbor of China, is trying to capture part of these markets in one go. Nishinippon Shimbun (West Japan Newspaper) reports that the Japan Tourism Agency is pushing for travel tours that combine sightseeing and medical treatment to wealthy Chinese tourists. They are promoting tours that offer travelers its advanced medical technology in diagnostics and treatments, at the same time, its famous therapeutic elements such as Japanese food and Japanese hot springs.
For fiscal 2010, their focus is on the China. They are planning to gathering information such as awareness and expectations about medial tourism in Japan and invite the media and travel agencies to visit Japanese medical facilities. Already there are plans to make information such as list of medical institutions that accept foreigners available to related parties, and investigating the possibility of a “Medical Visa”.
Naruto Strait, Tokushima Prefecture, Japan
Some local governments have already started their own programs. Tokushima Prefecture, in the eastern part of the Shikoku Island in Japan, already started pilot tours in late March. The tours features sightseeing to the famous whirling tides in the Naruto Strait (Japanese: 鳴門海峡), low calorie delicacy from local ingredients and diabetes screening tests.
Naruto Whirlpools
According to the Planning Division of the Prefecture Tourism Board, participants highly appreciated the smooth tests, they wanted to increase the type of medical tests available, however, there was not enough information or guide books in Chinese.
This is part of the New Growth Strategy announced by the Prime Minister of Japan Yukio Hatoyama (Japanese: 鳩山由紀夫) on 31 Dec 2010. The target is to see 25 million foreign tourists to Japan from year 2020; and grow 30 million foreign tourists in the future.
Japan Tourism Agency, established on 01 Oct 2008, is an extra-ministerial bureau of the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism of Japan.
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Some may think of the poll in another way – to give a good impression to the BN government that they will win in a new election if they dissolve the State Assembly.
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Guess Malaysiakini can’t count.
Of TOTAL participants (100%)
53%(Malays) x 59.96% = 31.78% think BN is legit.
5.89% Chinese think BN is legit.
1.83% Indians think BN is legit.
0% ‘Others’ think BN is legit.
Therefore only 39.5% of TOTAL participants think BN is legit.
Where this fella get 55%, please show how this local SPM holder calculate (probably got A for SPM Math) MALU!
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“Of TOTAL participants (100%)
53%(Malays) x 59.96% = 31.78% think BN is legit.
5.89% Chinese think BN is legit.
1.83% Indians think BN is legit.
0% ‘Others’ think BN is legit.
Therefore only 39.5% of TOTAL participants think BN is legit.”
Unfortunately, you have failed political math.
The 39.5% is not 39.5%, for the 53% Malays represents much much more than the 31.78% figure due to constituency gerrymandering.
FYI, one Malay vote (probably) equals 1.5 to 2.8 non-Malay votes in Malaysia, thanks to the practice of gerrymandering.
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Iron,
I don’t know about political math, but I know a lying statistics when I see one.
The “Lain-Lain” group consist of near 0% of the entire interviewees. Yet the chart shows 30% setuju that BN is legit.
What is 30% of 0.03%?
Political math will tell you it is 30%.
REAL math will give you 30%x0.03%=0.009% ===> 0% of total interviewees setuju that BN is legit.
The statement below is VERY misleading, and cannot be believed:
“More than 55 percent of those surveyed said that BN would win if there were to be a state election now,” said Ilham Centre’s managing director Mohd Azlan Zainal…”
The statistics shows that out of every 1000 ppl interviewed,
599 are Malays (59.9%)
Of these 599 only 317 ppl (53%) believe in BN.
in summary 317 Malays out of 1000 ppl (31.7%) believe in BN.
31.7%! 31.7%! 31.7%! 31.7%!
Hence “More than 55 percent of those surveyed said that BN would win” statement is either a figure plucked from the air or a BODOH MATH fool….
Real answer is 39.5% of TOTAL participants think BN is legit.
Political answer is >55%.
No wonder most accounting firms do not hire Math bozos to work as professionals.
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